Recently, the polyvinyl alcohol market has been fluctuating downward, and market news has been bearish. As of April 2nd, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol at Shengyishe was 12283.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.53% compared to last week (12350.00 yuan/ton).
In 1799, the mainstream negotiations in the market were 11800-12800 yuan/ton for cash delivery, in 2699, 12300-13500 yuan/ton for cash delivery, in 1788, 12300-13500 yuan/ton for cash delivery, in 2488, 13300-14700 yuan/ton for cash delivery, and in 2099, 12000 13300 yuan/ton for cash delivery.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply side:
The domestic vinyl acetate market weakened significantly in the previous cycle, with two declines ranging from 800 to 1000 yuan/ton. As of April 2nd, the price of vinyl acetate in the East China market is around 6400, the price in the South China market is around 6650, and the price in the North China market is around 6600. The market supply is sufficient, and the on-site trading atmosphere is cold. The operation of the vinyl acetate unit is stable, and downstream demand is following up. Enterprise inventory is higher than market demand. The low prices in the market continued to increase during the week, but it was difficult to affect the demand side and continued to be low with a small amount of transactions.
Demand side:
The downstream market is showing a weak situation, and the market is gradually starting to operate, but the overall situation is not as good as in previous years. The usage has not improved, and the purchasing willingness is not good, making it difficult to increase the volume. Enterprises are offering discounts to sell. Overall, the demand side still slows down, and the negative impact on the polyvinyl alcohol market.
Future Market Forecast:
Supply side:
It is expected that the vinyl acetate market will continue to be weak and stable in recent days, and downstream demand has not significantly recovered. This may lead to further price reductions by holders, which will have a negative impact on corporate quotations and accelerate the decline. Business owners still have a bearish sentiment towards the future market, and they are cautious in their actual order operations. Overall,
Demand side:
Polymer additives, fabric slurries, and adhesives are expected to increase in demand due to weather changes and the expected increase in terminal construction. The market negotiation atmosphere will warm up, and demand may improve. Downstream demand is expected to rebound, which will have a certain stimulating effect on the polyvinyl alcohol market and provide support and increase.
Overall
The market price of polyvinyl alcohol is significantly affected by both the raw material and demand sides, and the overall industry chain is interconnected. The increase in demand is crucial and will boost the trend of the polyvinyl alcohol market. It is expected that the polyvinyl alcohol market will experience a slight upward trend, and the price fluctuation range in the future is between 12500 and 13000 yuan/ton.
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