According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 11th to 15th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3569 yuan/ton to 3592 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64%, a month on month decrease of 0.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.57%. The current demand for asphalt is relatively scarce, and the atmosphere for low-priced spot trading is still acceptable, while the demand for high prices is average. The market recovery is slow, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient. The overall performance of asphalt is weak.
On the supply side, in terms of the main production enterprises, Xinjiang Meihuite has stabilized the production of asphalt and Yunnan Petrochemical has stabilized the production, driving up the utilization rate of refinery capacity in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased compared to the previous month, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The US EIA inventory data is positive, coupled with Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries, geopolitical tensions have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. As of March 14th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $85.42 per barrel, an increase of $1.39 or 1.7%.
On the demand side, the demand for asphalt market varies slightly in different regions. In the northern region, the demand for essential goods is slowly recovering, but actual demand is weak. In the southern region, some rainy and cloudy weather may hinder essential goods, but actual essential goods are still relatively flat, with a small amount of inbound demand being the main demand. The demand side of the asphalt market is bearish.
As of the close of March 15th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 2541 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2571 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2535 yuan/ton. It closed at 2565 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 43% or 1.70% from the previous trading day’s settlement, with a trading volume of 1086545 lots and a holding volume of 934243 lots, and a daily increase of 39413.
In the future market forecast, although the significant increase in international crude oil has provided significant support for refinery costs, it is not strong enough to stimulate the market in the current situation of weak supply and demand. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be weak in the short term, with consolidation being the main trend.
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