Recently, the market of phosphorus chemical industry rose, and it rose sharply in the situation of the price decline of more than 100 raw materials of “stepping on the brake” of bulk commodities, and reached the highest level in the year. Yellow phosphorus led the rise of phosphorus chemical industry, which was comparable to the price trend in 2019, and led to the fluctuation of related product price index, and the overall trend of phosphorus chemical industry was up.
According to the large data list of business agencies, the phosphorus chemical industry plate has been red all over the country recently. The phosphorus chemical index on May 27 was 1087, up 5 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 45.13 percent from the lowest point of 749 on October 07, 2018（ Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present). According to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 3 commodities rising in the list of rise and fall of phosphorus chemical industry price on May 26, 2021, 0 commodities falling, and 2 commodities with rise and fall of 0. The main commodities rising were: yellow phosphorus (4.17%), monoammonium phosphate (1.95%), phosphoric acid (1.17%); The daily average rise and fall was 1.46 per cent.
China is the world’s largest producer of phosphorus chemical products. Phosphorus chemical industry includes phosphate fertilizer industry, yellow phosphorus and phosphating industry, phosphoric acid and phosphate industry, organic phosphating industry, phosphorus containing pesticide and pharmaceutical industry, etc. it is widely used and an important industry in national economy. According to the data above, five commodities in the plate, including yellow phosphorus led the market, up about 48% year-on-year, followed by diammonium phosphate, up more than 40% year-on-year, with different commodity growth, but the overall trend of phosphorous chemical industry is strong. The following is a detailed view:
Good atmosphere of investment and high consolidation operation of domestic phosphorus ore
In late May, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to maintain high consolidation operation as a whole, the overall market investment atmosphere was good, downstream orders were relatively stable, and the delivery of the industry was normal. The phosphorus ore market in Guizhou Province is in high order and operation. The enterprise start rate is low in Guizhou Province, the inventory of phosphate ore is low, and the spot supply is tight. Most of Guizhou mining enterprises keep high and firm quotation. The market transaction price is generally high. According to the data monitoring of business society, as of May 27, the reference average price of 30% of the mainstream areas of phosphorus ore in China is 510 yuan / ton, compared with the price on May 1, The average price rose 30 yuan / ton, or 6.25%, up 30.21% compared with the same period last year.
The analysts of phosphorus ore of business agency believe that: the overall trading climate of the market is good, the downstream Yellow Phosphorus market is also slightly pushed up, and the upstream and downstream are effectively supported. Therefore, the analysts of the phosphorus ore of business society believe that the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be strong in the short term.
Domestic yellow phosphorus market price soared in short supply
In late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, less water and limited electricity in Yunnan, the power of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Recently, the power limit has not been relieved, but it is becoming more and more serious. More yellow phosphorus plants are shut down, the shortage of spot goods is aggravating, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped making external quotations. On the demand side, the downstream glyphosate price continued to rise, which was acceptable to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and played a certain role in boosting the price rise of yellow phosphorus. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 25000 yuan / ton; The main quotation in Sichuan is about 23000-25000 yuan / ton; The main quotation in Guizhou is about 25000 yuan / ton.
Analysts of huangp, a business agency, believe that due to the influence of power limit in Yunnan, manufacturers park more and the spot tension is increasing. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will still be adjusted above the main price in the short term.
Cost supports the high market of phosphoric acid
In May, the phosphoric acid market was relatively stable in the first half of the month, and the next half of the month fluctuated narrowly. Near the end of the month, the phosphoric acid market rose rapidly and rushed to a high level. This month, the increase was mainly caused by the rising price of raw material yellow phosphorus. The price of yellow phosphorus is now high to 25000 yuan / ton, and the supply is short. The phosphoric acid market is supported by cost and the price increases in linkage. The enterprise’s range of increase is about 350-1100 yuan / t, which rapidly rises to high level. Taking Ronghong chemical as an example, the latest price is 6400 yuan / ton, and the price is high, Some enterprises started to decline due to the high price of raw materials and goods, while closing the offer and closing the report, the business was mostly in a wait-and-see form, while the downstream still maintained the purchase demand, and the high price transactions were very few.
Phosphoric acid analysts of business agency believe that the price of raw material yellow phosphorus market has been rising continuously recently, most of which have been closed and closed. The phosphoric acid market has been linked to a high level. It is expected that the price will still rise in the short term, and the change of raw material price should be closely watched.
The market of Monoammonium is warming, and there is no fluctuation of diammonium
The price of monoammonium phosphate rose, and the price rose 3.29% in the month. Domestic demand increased, and orders increased. The commencement rate of ammonium monoammonium enterprises is about 70%, slightly higher than last week. In the process of shutdown and maintenance of some enterprises, the price rose. The price of diammonium phosphate is stable. The domestic market is stable and has no fluctuation for now. Domestic demand is general, and the order quantity is not followed up enough. Some enterprises stop production and maintenance, and the source of goods is tight, mainly export oriented. The start rate of ammonium enterprises was about 55% this Tuesday, and the rate of commencement was low.
Business agency analysts believe that the atmosphere in the market of monoammonium phosphate is warming and demand has been improved. The price of raw materials increased and supply decreased. Domestic market of diammonium phosphate is flat, still export oriented, new single follow-up is insufficient. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will continue to rise in the short term, and the stable operation of diammonium phosphate will be the main.
Post market forecast
In late May, phosphorus chemical opened up the upward channel, the price went higher, and the overall market was relatively strong. Huangp is in the middle of the industrial chain. Recently, the price has risen, and the industrial chain is linked up and up. Individual products are dragged down by demand, and the price has not changed significantly. At present, the supply of phosphorus chemical industry market is tight, and there is still upward expectation in the short term. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Therefore, the driving force of continuous rise is not strong, and the market may face a callback.
| PVA |