Recent trend of urea price
As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2273.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2320.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.05%, and a year-on-year increase of 42.33%. On the whole, the urea market rose this week. The urea commodity index was 107.91 on May 21, with an upward trend over the weekend.
The upstream support is general, the downstream demand is good, and the supply side is tight
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. The price of urea in Yangmei plain this weekend is 2320 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2310 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2330 yuan / ton this weekend, up 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.
From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, it seems that the upstream products of urea have mutual rise and fall this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has dropped sharply, from 3860.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3566.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 7.60%, a year-on-year increase of 33.75%; The price of steam coal dropped slightly, from 942.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 935.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.80%, up 78.69% year on year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3846.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3920.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.91%, 27.14% over the same period last year. This week, the quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea fell sharply, from 15066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 7.74%.
From the perspective of demand, the agricultural demand of different regions has been followed up; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, most of them were used as they were mined, and the manufacturers had less inventory. From the supply side: in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other places have been overhauled, and the supply side has been tightened. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory have also been maintained at a low position. India bid: India RCF issued a new round of urea import bidding on May 18 and opened the bid on May 25. Purchase quantity and price will affect the next domestic urea market trend. On the whole, the urea cost support this week is general, the downstream demand is better, and the urea supply is tight.
More profits, more stable prices in the future
In late May, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is rising and the industrial demand is also rising slightly, but the supply of urea is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will not meet the demand in the short term, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.
| PVA |