According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the engineering plastics sector was in shock operation in the first half of April, with the overall performance of falling after rising. As of April 15, only PC remained rising in the price rise and fall list of engineering plastics in the business community within half a month. There were 3 kinds of falling commodities and 0 kinds of rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were PC (+ 6.73%); the main commodities falling were PA6 (- 2.89%), PA66 (- 3.59%) and pet (- 1.63%). The average rise and fall in half a month was – 0.34%.
It can be seen from the data that in the first ten days of April, the engineering plastics products rose less and fell more. Among the four commodities in the plate, three of them fell below the average price level at the beginning of the month. Only PC still maintained a strong operation, and the increase rate was considerable. While the fundamentals of other products are fairly stable, they have all declined to varying degrees. It can be seen from the comparison that in early April, the engineering plastics sector showed an independent rise and the overall upward market was blocked. Here are the details:
PC entered a record high, up more than 11% in one month
The PC market seems to be strong after the festival. As of April 15, the PC market comprehensive price monitored by the business community was 29066.67 yuan / ton, which broke through the historical high. The average price level increased by 11.08% compared with the same period last month, with an increase of about 3000 yuan / ton. The upstream bisphenol a market is still in short supply and reluctant to sell. The spot reference negotiation is about 29600-29700 yuan / ton. And the inventory position is on the low side, and the expectation of rising in the future is still there. In the upstream raw materials continue to rise in the state, the domestic PC market high run for many days, continued to rise in April. At present, the rise of the overall market has slowed down, and the PC market has entered the digestion stage. The downstream follow-up is relatively slow and the purchasing operation is cautious. The production and trade traders are active in shipping, and the attitude of price support is obvious.
Weak supply and demand, high cost pressure in PA66 industry
At present, PA66 and PC are also affected by the shortage of upstream raw materials, but the market trend is not the same. According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market had a high callback in the first half of April, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of April 15, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 41400 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.50% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a rise of 97.14% compared with the same period last year. The price range was at a new high in history. The impact of cold disaster in the United States and epidemic situation in Europe and the United States on the supply of PA66 upstream products continues, and the improvement is slow. Among them, the shortage of adironitrile, which is more dependent on import, has an obvious impact on the medium-term market. Domestic imports of adiponitrile and hexanediamine remained low. And the price is high.
Due to the continuous shortage of raw materials, almost all domestic PA66 enterprises, such as Pingdingshan Shenma and Zhejiang Huafeng, are struggling to make bricks without straw, and the overall operating rate of the industry is stable to about half. At the same time, it also causes the enterprise to continue the strategy of no quotation without pressure on inventory, and the shipment mainly meets the old contract customers. The upstream price position is high, and the domestic PA66 price range is still high in the first half of the month. However, the spot offer on the floor has fallen down compared with that before. The continuous cost pressure on the downstream makes the end users complain endlessly, the purchasing strategy is more cautious, and the spot trading on the floor shows an increase in small orders. The decrease of trading power caused price fluctuation to a certain extent. At present, there is no improvement opportunity for the shortage of raw materials in the short term, and the high pressure on the market cost side is worrying. PA66 market is expected to remain high in the short term.
Weak demand, cumulative PA6 inventory decline has continued for more than a month
According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market continued its high decline trend in the first half of April, and the spot price mostly decreased. As of April 15, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 14566.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.89% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 38.73% compared with the same period last year. The upstream caprolactam supply continued to be abundant. Although the cost side support was still strong, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market put pressure on the market, and the domestic spot price continued to callback. The operating rate of manufacturers remains high, and the on-site supply may continue to accumulate. Although it is about to enter the peak season of maintenance, in order to ease the current situation of oversupply, we need to wait for the maintenance of major factories to start at the end of the month.
The price of caprolactam continued to fall, the cost support of PA6 was weakened, and the market continued to decline. At present, the decline of PA6 market has lasted for more than a month. In addition to the weakening of upstream price, another important factor comes from PA6 industry itself. At present, domestic PA6 supply is strong, demand is weak, market transaction power is insufficient, and trading is poor, which is a drag on the focus of offer. Traders and factories began to accumulate inventory, and the high inventory and the drop of spot reduced the profit of polymerization plant. Recently, the profit situation of domestic polymerization plants is not good, and most manufacturers have negative profit situation, which leads to the passive reduction of negative profit of some units. At present, the operating rate of the industry has dropped to 70%, and it is likely to continue to decline. Currently, the fundamentals of PA6 are bad, and it is expected that the price of PA6 will continue to decline.
Lack of demand power, pet supply and demand deadlock, up and down dilemma
Compared with other engineering plastics products, the current pet market atmosphere is a little colder. According to the data of business news agency, as of April 15, the quotation of pet water bottle manufacturers was 7050.00 yuan / ton, and the market focus of PET bottle chips declined, which was 1.63% lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month. The price trend was stable and weak. Ethylene glycol in the upper reaches fluctuated downward, with high inventory and slow digestion. Pet cost support is insufficient, and some factories slightly reduced 50-100 yuan / ton. Weak downstream demand, limited number of new orders, on-site supply and demand deadlock, up and down dilemma.
Future forecast
In addition to the stable price support of some upstream raw material import dependent products, engineering plastics products rose less and fell more in the first half of April. Overall, engineering plastics plate in the early period of the market, the products of different degrees of digestion or market, now has entered the overall up after finishing stage. On April 15, the engineering plastics index of Shangshe was 1078 points. On the macro level, the index range was still at a high level, and there was little fluctuation in half a month. However, the fundamental performance of various products is different, which makes the supply of the next maintenance season tighter and the market more uncertain. It is expected that in the second half of April, Tong engineering plastics products will maintain the digestion and finishing market.
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