1、 Price trend
According to business news agency’s block list data, toluene rose at the beginning of this week and closed down at the end of the week, and its price was higher than that of last week. On February 28, the price of toluene was 5687.5 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 7), the price was 5825 yuan / ton, up 137.5 yuan / ton or 2.42% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
After the festival, toluene rose sharply due to the influence of crude oil, but the downstream demand was weak compared with toluene, which restricted the growth of toluene. At the beginning of this week, the bearish crude oil fell back, driving toluene down. In terms of external market, the price of toluene in the external market continued to decline this week. As of March 5, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 735 US dollars / ton, down 42 US dollars / ton or 5.41% compared with February 26, and the price of imported toluene from East China was 760 US dollars / ton, down 40 US dollars / ton or 5% compared with February 26.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil fell first and then rose this week. In the early stage, the market worried that the rapid rise of oil price would lead to the return of more production capacity, and OPEC + might increase production. However, at the OPEC + meeting on the 4th, it was decided to maintain the current scale of production reduction until the end of April, and Saudi Arabia will still reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day, boosting crude oil prices. On February 26, Brent rose $3.085/barrel, or 4.68%; WTI rose $4.69/barrel, or 7.66%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose again this week, with domestic goods at 19250 yuan / ton, up 5.48% from last week and 73.42% from the same period last year. The domestic market is relatively strong, the guidance price of large factories is relatively high, the TDI device of Cangzhou Dahua is out of order, which is good for the market, the supplier has strong support, and the attitude of the industry is bullish. However, the downstream does not have a high acceptance of the high price, and the trading and buying gas are general. It is expected that the market will be relatively strong in the future, so we should pay attention to the factory policy guidance.
In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose 1000 yuan / ton this week, at 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year and 8.06% over the same period last year. As of March 5, the closing prices in Asia were US $850-852 / T FOB Korea and US $868-870 / T CFR China.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
After the festival, the lower reaches rose weaker than toluene, with strong resistance to high price toluene and weak demand follow-up. In March, domestic toluene refineries entered into centralized maintenance, and it is expected that toluene arriving in Hong Kong will be limited, and toluene supply will be tight. In addition to crude oil, external price support, toluene price is expected to be strong. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on toluene prices.
| PVA |