Partial region, individual period, partial coal species or supply is tight in 2021
The annual report on the development of coal industry 2020 issued by China coal industry association holds that the quality of coal supply system will steadily improve in 2021, the contract price of coal in the medium and long term will be stable in a reasonable range and the market price will maintain a basic balance trend.
From the perspective of coal demand, 2021 is a year of special importance in the process of modernization construction in China. The central economic working conference emphasized that macro policies should be continuous, stable and sustainable, and that active fiscal policies and sound monetary policies should be implemented to maintain the necessary support for economic recovery; A series of key tasks were deployed at the meeting, which will promote the stable development of China’s macro-economy and drive the continuous growth of coal demand.
Meanwhile, the state strengthens energy conservation and emission reduction, and the air environment governance, and the substitution effect of new energy and renewable energy on coal consumption is further enhanced, which will inhibit the growth of coal consumption. It is expected that the national coal demand will increase slightly in 2021.
From the perspective of coal supply, it is expected that the new high-quality production capacity in the new coal production areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia will continue to be released in 2021, but at the same time, some southern provinces, such as Hunan, Jiangxi and Chongqing, will further withdraw from the backward coal production capacity. Overall, the national coal production will maintain an increasing trend in 2021, and the increase will further focus on Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia.
From the perspective of coal import, the trend of diversification of China’s coal import market in 2021 is becoming more and more obvious, and the coal import volume will remain basically stable throughout the year.
Based on comprehensive judgment, the quality of the national coal supply system will be steadily improved in 2021, the contract price of coal in the medium and long term will be stable in a reasonable range, and the coal market will maintain a basic balance.
However, due to the constraints of resources and environment and the uncertainty of weather, the situation of partial area, individual period and partial coal species is not excluded.
Coal production increased by about 5% in the 14th five year plan and consumption increased by about 6%
The report predicts that by the end of the 14th five year plan, the domestic coal production will be controlled at 4.1 billion tons and the national coal consumption will be controlled at about 4.2 billion tons. The above target values are about 5% and 6% higher than China’s coal production and consumption in 2020.
By the end of 2020, China has about 4700 coal mines. By the end of the 14th five year plan, this data will be compressed to about 4000, and more than 1000 intelligent coal mines will be built; 65 million tons of Mines (open air) and nearly 1billion tons / year production capacity will be built. Cultivate the world-class coal enterprises with global competitiveness in 3-5 furniture. We will promote the merger and reorganization of enterprises and establish 10 coal enterprises with an annual output of 100 million tons. The mechanization degree of coal mining is more than 90%, and the mechanization degree of driving reaches more than 75%.
During the 13th five year plan, the coal industry exceeded the target of capacity reduction, the report said. By the end of 2020, the country has withdrawn 5500 coal mines in total and has withdrawn from backward production capacity of more than 1billion tons / year, exceeding the target of resolving the excess coal capacity proposed by the State Council.
At the same time, the quality of coal supply system has been significantly improved. China has built 1200 large-scale modern coal mines with an annual output of more than 1.2 million tons, accounting for about 80% of the total output. Among them, 52 coal mines with an annual output of 10 million tons have been built, with a capacity of 820million tons / year. Thus, the coal to capacity has no impact on the new coal mine project.
In the future, the concentration of coal industry will be greatly improved. At present, the output of raw coal of the first 8 large enterprises is 1.855 billion tons, accounting for 47.6% of the total. With the pace of merger and reorganization of coal enterprises accelerating, the proportion will be further increased.