1. Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on February 9 was 3000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous day, down 28.29% compared with the beginning of the month, and down 2.91% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In February, the domestic LNG market plummeted. As of the 8th, it had been in a continuous decline, with a decline of about 28%. The price of some liquid plants was less than 3000 yuan / ton. On the 9th, the market decline slowed down, and Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and other places continued to decline. This week is about to usher in the traditional new year. Most of the downstream units are shut down. The demand for vehicles is sharply reduced. However, the market supply is sufficient. The liquid plant units are operating at reduced load and continue to sell at reduced prices to reduce the pressure on inventory. However, the situation of light trading is difficult to reverse. During the spring, the temperature is warmer, the logistics is not smooth, and the demand is reduced. At the same time, most liquid plants start up and sell normally, and the contradiction between supply and demand is increasing. The liquid price may be under pressure, but due to the cost, the range is not large.
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on February 9 was 3000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous day, down 28.29% compared with the beginning of the month, and down 2.91% compared with the same period last year. Inner Mongolia 2800-3200 yuan / ton, Shaanxi 2700-3150 yuan / ton, Shanxi 2950-3200 yuan / ton, Ningxia 3100-3300 yuan / ton, Henan 3200-3600 yuan / ton, the price of liquid around a large area down.
Regional specifications rose and fell from February 9 to February 1
Inner Mongolia ﹣ LNG ﹣ 2800-3200 ﹣ 4100-4450 – 900-1250
Shaanxi LNG Company: 2700-3150 3900-4370 – 750-1220
Shanxi LNG 2950-3200 4200-4500 – 1000-1300
Ningxia ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3100-3300 ﹣ 4100-4400 – 800-1100-
Henan LNG Company: 3200-3600 4250-4500 – 650-900
Sichuan ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3400-3500 ﹣ 3850-4000 – 350-500
According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 7, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2245 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 1.10% and a year-on-year increase of 1.81%. As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a shortage of transport vehicles, which is not conducive to the circulation of methanol goods. The domestic methanol market is difficult to change in the near future.
On February 8, the reference price of urea was 2143.33, up 4.05% compared with February 1 (2060.00). In the middle of February, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is limited, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.
For dichloromethane, the market of methane chloride in Shandong Province was temporarily stable on February 9. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market was 2880 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of chloroform market was 2330 yuan / ton. At present, the market is dominated by shock adjustment. The trading situation in the industry is general. The enterprises start to reduce the burden, the inventory is low, and the upstream liquid chlorine market is high, which has a good support for the price of methane chloride The purchasing demand is flat and the support to the market is insufficient. Shock adjustment is expected in the short term.
Recently, the price of ethylene has risen. On February 5, the price was 969.00 US dollars per ton. On February 8, the average price of ethylene was 970.75 US dollars per ton, up 0.18%. The current price has dropped 10.18% month on month, and the current price has increased 15.02% year on year. With tight supply in the oil market, rising international oil prices and strong cost support, business community data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will rise next.
3、 Future forecast
Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: at present, the support of demand side continues to decline, while the market supply is sufficient, and the liquid plants continue to reduce prices and discharge stocks before the festival to seek benefits. As the traditional new year is coming, the situation of light trading is difficult to reverse, and the expectation will continue to be lowered. However, due to the cost, the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market will be stable and weak during the Spring Festival, and wait for the guidance of the demand side after the festival.
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