1、 Price trend
According to the business news agency’s block list data, this week’s domestic toluene continued the upward trend of last week. On January 24, the price of toluene was 4150 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (January 24), the price was 4250 yuan / ton, up 2.41% from last week’s 100 yuan / ton.
2、 Analysis and comment
Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 150-250 yuan / ton. This week, some downstream purchasing, toluene supply is expected to tighten, prices rose. In terms of external market, toluene continued to rise this week. As of January 29, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 553 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton or 0.91% compared with January 22. The price of imported toluene from East China was 574.5 US dollars / ton, up 20.5 US dollars / ton or 3.7% compared with January 22.
In terms of crude oil, the news of Iraq’s decision to make compensatory production cuts at the beginning of this week supported the crude oil market, but the epidemic situation was still severe, curbing the demand of the crude oil market. On January 22, Brent fell 0.095 USD / barrel, or 0.17%; WTI fell 0.19 USD / barrel, or 0.36%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose slightly this week, with domestic goods at 12766.67 yuan / ton, up 1.86% over last week and 9.12% over the same period last year. The East China market is relatively strong, the supplier’s equipment maintenance news is fermenting, the export demand is good, the industry’s offer is high and the market is strong, the downstream is on holiday one after another, the market’s acceptance of high prices is low, the follow-up of buying is weak, and the goods just need to be prepared to enter the market.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week, with an average price of 5200 yuan / ton over the weekend, down 24.64% year on year. The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. This week, the operation rate of p-xylene plant in Asia dropped to 60%, the supply of PX in Asia decreased, and the external price of PX remained volatile this week. As of the end of the week, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was US $665-667 / T FOB Korea and US $683-685 / t CFR China.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Downstream terminals have been shut down, logistics reduced, toluene market is expected to enter a period of stable price consolidation. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of toluene.
| PVA |