1、 Price trend
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According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on August 24 was 2423.33 yuan / ton, up 0.69% from the previous day (21 days), down 1.62% month on month and 21.58% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
On Monday, the domestic LNG market remained stable as a whole, and some regions rose slightly, boosting the market atmosphere. In Northern Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places, the shipment of liquid plants has improved slightly, and the demand for downstream gas stations has increased. In addition, some liquid plants, such as Huida in Inner Mongolia and Zhengtai Yida, have plans to stop selling. To a certain extent, it is good for the domestic LNG market. Some liquid plants take advantage of the potential to rise tentatively within 50 yuan. However, due to the influence of the flood season, the logistics in other areas is not smooth, and the shipment is blocked, and the price shows signs of continuous decline, Overall, the market is still weak. In terms of gas intake, there is little change in the air intake. The actual transaction is favorable. At present, the price of imported gas is rising, which has also played a certain role in boosting the domestic LNG market. However, in the off-season of consumption, the downstream procurement still maintains the rigid demand, and lacks the driving force to support the upward trend of liquid price. With the construction enterprises in the early stage successively start to operate, the on-site supply is abundant, and the buyer’s market occupies the leading low position. Therefore, it is difficult for the liquid price to have a larger market and mainly fluctuate in a narrow range.
Data show that natural gas production has slowed down and natural gas import has changed from increase to decrease. In July, 14.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and the growth rate was 6.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; the average daily output was 460 million cubic meters, with a decrease of 50 million cubic meters on a month on month basis. From January to July, natural gas production was 108.3 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. In July, 7.35 million tons of natural gas were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% and an increase of 11.5% last month. From January to July, 55.71 million tons of natural gas were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%.
As of August 24, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 2463.33 yuan / ton, that in Inner Mongolia was 2400-2470 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi was around 2470 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was 2600 yuan / ton, and that in Xinjiang was 2300 yuan / ton. The overall price of liquid was stable and fluctuated slightly in some areas.
Enterprise capacity rose and fell from August 24 to August 21
Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 cubic meters / day 2400 yuan / ton 2370 yuan / ton
Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 2470 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 20 yuan
Inner Mongolia Sentai: 1.2 million cubic meters / day: 2420 yuan / ton: 2420 yuan / ton
Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2400 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton
Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day, 2470 yuan / ton, 2470 yuan / ton
Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2850 yuan / ton: 2850 yuan / ton
Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2330 yuan / ton 2330 yuan / ton 0
Qinshui Xinao — 2700 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton
Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day: 3000 yuan / ton: 3000 yuan / ton
Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million m3 / day 1600 yuan / ton 1600 yuan / ton
The downstream methanol market was weak, and some manufacturers lowered their ex factory quotations by about 20-50 yuan / ton. On August 18, the closing price of methanol in Asia, Europe and the United States was flat compared with the previous day, and the international market was relatively stable. The unit operating rate of production enterprises in the northwest main production area is maintained at 60-80%, and the shipment situation is acceptable, and some enterprises plan to overhaul their devices. The fluctuation of downstream product market is not obvious. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will be mainly sorted out.
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Liquid ammonia, near the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia is mostly stable, and some is rising slightly. It is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will consolidate at a high level in the near future, and the trend of various regions will be differentiated to some extent. In the short term, due to the maintenance of some units, the partial supply imbalance may be caused. However, in the late stage of plant resumption in Shandong, the ammonia quantity will be accumulated step by step, so the price may be subject to certain restrictions. From the demand side, the downstream procurement is moderate. Although urea has winter storage, the current social inventory is still high and the price support is limited. In terms of the downstream fertilizer market, affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the reduction of export supply is still driven by domestic rigid demand. Therefore, affected by both supply and demand factors, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to be stable in the near future.
Urea, in late August, the market price of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the market trading atmosphere is weakened. It is expected that the short-term urea market will mainly fluctuate and fall.
Dichloromethane, the overall operating rate of dichloromethane enterprises in Shandong Province has gradually recovered, the enterprise quotation has been at a high level, the downstream market demand is weak, the industry supply and demand game, the production enterprise warehouse pressure is gradually increasing, the industry has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the intention of receiving goods is not high, and it is obviously bearish on future generations. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2290-2310 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 2900 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2400 yuan / ton. According to the business association, the game between supply and demand of dichloromethane market in Shandong is obvious, the number of new orders in the industry is relatively small, and the accumulation of enterprise inventory is expected to be mainly wait-and-see in the future.
3、 Future forecast
Liquefied natural gas analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the shipment situation in some regions has improved, and the upward trend of imported gas has driven up the market atmosphere, and the liquid plant has tentatively pushed up slightly. However, the demand in the off-season is limited, and the liquid price is difficult to have a larger market. It is expected that the short-term fluctuations will be dominated by narrow range.
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