I. price trend
Yellow phosphorus prices fell in November, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 19166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 18800 yuan / ton.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
On November 27, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 118.99, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.27% from 161.39 (2019-07-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.24% from 89.98, the lowest point on September 5, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
II. Market analysis
Product: in November, the price of yellow phosphorus showed a downward trend. On 18th, due to the one week environmental protection inspection conducted by Yunnan Guichuan, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced and the price was slightly increased. As of the 28th day, the average price was about 18800 yuan / ton. On the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus has not changed much. The price has declined slightly, but the price is still high. According to the inspection by the central environmental protection group of Yunnan Province, the enterprises in Yunnan Province started to decline, and the market supply was tight. Some enterprises mainly supply early orders, and the quotation for foreign reports was suspended. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 18800-19000 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-19000 yuan / ton. The overall market is short of spot goods, most traders are mainly wait-and-see, they are more cautious in taking goods, the market demand is relatively light, downstream users take them as they use them, and the current high price of yellow phosphorus is mainly consolidated.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
Industry chain: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic coke market mentality has recovered recently, but the market as a whole remains stable. The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market of Sichuan Province is 1980 yuan / ton, and that in Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou Province is 2220 yuan / ton. This month, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to run in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some regions were slightly adjusted. Prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other regions remained at a high level. Prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang region were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and prices remained stable in the past two weeks. The average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is 416.67 yuan / ton. The downstream phosphoric acid and phosphate enterprises stop more, the market fluctuation is not obvious, the user’s replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and the market trading is light. There is a strong wait-and-see mood among enterprises. In the short term, the market price of phosphoric acid is mainly based on price structure, and the mainstream price is 5100-5600 yuan / ton.
On November 27, the yellow phosphorus industry chain index was 105.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.35% from 124.27 (2019-07-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.00% from 79.69, the lowest point on October 7, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)
III. future forecast
According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business cooperation, this month’s yellow phosphorus enterprises are limited in driving, the overall market of yellow phosphorus is light in trading and investment, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Who will take it with you? Most traders are mainly wait-and-see. They are more cautious in taking the goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the high price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated.
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