According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased recently (10.13-10.23). On October 23rd, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7510 yuan/ton, while on October 13th, the benchmark price was 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.12%.

Stable domestic inventory and low pressure on xylene supply

Stable inventory of mixed xylene at the port. It is understood that as of October 20th, the inventory of xylene in East China was around 26000 tons; The inventory of xylene in South China is around 3000 tons.

Asia US arbitrage significantly narrows the price decline of isomeric grade xylene in Asia

In the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America continued to decline, and the Asia US interest rate difference narrowed significantly. The prices of isomeric grade xylene in Asia continued to decline. As of October 23rd, the price of Asian isomeric grade xylene is between 890 to 891 US dollars per ton.

Since October, the overall international crude oil price has decreased, and the support for xylene cost has weakened

Since October, the overall international crude oil price has declined, and the cost support for xylene has weakened. As of October 20th, the WTI12 contract closed at $88.30 per barrel, with a settlement of 88.08 yuan per barrel; The Brent 12 contract closed at $92.43 per barrel and settled at $92.16 per barrel.

Downstream PX starts stable xylene with rigid support needed

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal, and the crude oil price trend is rising. The external price trend of PX is mainly volatile. As of the 19th, the closing price in Asia is 995-997 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1020-1022 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has been mainly fluctuating, and overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is around 70%.

Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season and xylene demand support is weakening

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, coupled with downstream replenishment behavior before the Double Festival, downstream inquiries have been light after the festival, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has exceeded 70%, while the operating load of local refineries in Shandong is around 65%.

In terms of gasoline, there has been no holiday support recently, with a decrease in self driving frequency and driving radius. The demand for gasoline has decreased, and some businesses are moderately restocking on dips. The purchasing sentiment is not positive, and some refineries have increased their inventory. The decline in gasoline is significant. In terms of diesel, the construction of outdoor infrastructure and engineering projects has maintained a high level, coupled with the support of demand for open sea fishing and agricultural autumn harvests, logistics and transportation have shown active negative performance. The overall demand for diesel is relatively stable, so the decline in diesel is relatively small.

Future forecast: In the short term, the international crude oil market is volatile, with strong uncertainty in the cost of xylene. Currently, port inventory is stable, and overall, the price of mixed xylene will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 20th, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 9475.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the epoxy propane market remained stable and organized. At the beginning of the week, the raw material propylene market was relatively strong, with increased cost support, acceptable supply side shipments, and gradually easing inventory pressure. Downstream wait-and-see followed up appropriately, and the focus of negotiations in the epoxy propane market was mainly on stability. On the 20th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was around 9250-9400 yuan/ton. The raw material propylene market showed weak performance, and the cost side still had support. Factory shipments were average, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

Upstream Propylene: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the Shandong propylene market maintained stable operation on October 19th, with a mainstream market quotation of 7200-7250 yuan/ton, which provides strong support for the epoxy propane market.

The epoxy propane analyst at Business Society believes that the current cost support is still acceptable, and the supply side is temporarily stable. The demand side is following up and watching to slow down. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may operate steadily, showing signs of weakness, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid October, terminal rigid demand decreased, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline, with a drop of over 1%. On October 16th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1533 yuan/ton. On October 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1516 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.09%.

Demand Drops, Hydrogen Peroxide Market Declines

In mid October, the demand for stocking in the terminal printing and papermaking industry fell, and the price of hydrogen peroxide slowed down after experiencing a significant decline in the previous period. The mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region dropped to 1550 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton. The overall price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in China has dropped by about 50 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that terminal demand is poor, and the future market of hydrogen peroxide is under pressure.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of October 18, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4200 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to October 13. Compared to October 1 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4333 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.08%.

After the National Day holiday, the performance of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was poor, and the overall market situation was weak and declining. Entering this week, the dimethyl carbonate market has entered a stage of post decline consolidation and stable operation. At present, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is average, and the support provided by the demand side is still limited. The market supply and demand transmission is still relatively slow, and the overall market is mainly weak and consolidation operation. As of October 18th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 3900-4300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the demand in the downstream new energy field of dimethyl carbonate is average, and the transmission of downstream demand is relatively stable. Just in need of stock is the main demand. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the adjustment of the market range of dimethyl carbonate is the main operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand information.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of October 17th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5250 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price fell sharply, with a decrease of 1.87%. Currently, the mainstream price is around 5200 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market experienced a narrow decline, with prices falling by 1.87% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 5200.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. There is insufficient demand, and upstream cost support is average. Currently, manufacturers are shipping smoothly, and they are selling at a profit margin.

Chemical index: On October 16, the chemical index was 926 points, a decrease of 5 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 54.85% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

DMF analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily and weakly.