This week (December 1-5), the price of polyester bottle flakes showed a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of December 5, the average selling price of PET was 5785 yuan/ton. The overall situation is dominated by the cost side game, and the weak supply and demand side continues to constrain the space for price rebound. The following is a specific analysis:

The cost side is the core of price fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, with the support of geopolitical premiums and phased destocking of upstream PTA, raw material prices rose, driving the bottle tablet market upward. But in the second half of the week, due to the failure of the expected US oil adjustment logic and the seasonal accumulation of international crude oil, cost support significantly weakened, leading to a decline in bottle chip prices.
The loose pressure on the supply side is evident, with a weekly operating rate of 72.9% for bottle tablets this week, an increase of 2% compared to the previous week. In addition, there are plans to restart equipment in late December, adding pressure to new production capacity. The available days of factory inventory increased by 0.43 to 16.49 days compared to the previous week.
The demand is in the traditional off-season, with a year-on-year decline of 5.7% in soft drink production from January to October. Downstream purchasing intentions are sluggish, and caution is being exercised. Market trading is sluggish, making it difficult to form effective support for prices.
Business Society believes that the price of polyester bottle chips is expected to weakly consolidate in the range of 5700-5850 yuan/ton next week, with a high probability of cost fluctuations. The loose supply and demand pattern is unlikely to change, and there is no hope of short-term volume increase on the demand side. The market may continue to maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 28th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5376.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton or 0.75% compared to the price of 5336.67 yuan/ton on November 21st. The production and operation of ethyl acetate are stable, downstream demand has increased, and the upstream market is relatively strong. The support from the raw material side is favorable, and the ethyl acetate market is relatively strong and has been raised.
This week, the utilization rate of domestic ethyl acetate production capacity has increased compared to last week, and the market inventory is sufficient. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is still acceptable. The price of acetic acid on the raw material side continues to rise, and the atmosphere in the market is bullish. Driven by costs, some ethyl acetate manufacturers have increased their quotes, but the weak market demand situation has not improved, and the overall increase in ethyl acetate is limited.
In the future, there will be little change in the production of ethyl acetate, and the supply will steadily increase. Although the upstream market trend has supported the mentality of ethyl acetate, the downstream demand is limited, and market trading needs to follow up. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain stable and wait and see in the short term. Specific attention will be paid to the raw material market and downstream follow-up situation in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 12633 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 12800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.32%.
Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have increased this month, with the ex factory price of coconut shell water purification activated carbon (iodine value 1000) ranging from 11000 to 13500 yuan/ton. The demand for traditional fields such as water treatment in China is steadily growing, and the demand for hard carbon negative electrodes driven by the industrialization of sodium electricity is also increasing, directly driving the import demand for high-purity coconut shell carbon.
At present, the supply of raw materials is tight, and the main production areas in Southeast Asia are affected by natural disasters and adjustments in planting structure, resulting in a decrease in coconut production, a shortage of carbonized materials supply, an increase in processing enterprises in production areas, and intensified competition, leading to a rise in raw material prices. The import volume of fruit shell charcoal in October was 14652.8 tons, a decrease of 9% compared to the previous month and an increase of 11% year-on-year.
Prediction: The demand for coconut shell activated carbon in China is increasing, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in November
Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21460 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from the market average price of 21293.33 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared to the market average price of 21933.33 yuan/ton on November 13th, it has decreased by 2.16%.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 21000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
List of November Inventory Data
LME aluminum inventory:
In November 2025, LME aluminum inventory showed a continuous trend of high opening and low decline, with only a few days experiencing slight accumulation. At the beginning of the month, it started at a high level of 558050 tons, and at the end of the month (November 28), it dropped to 539050 tons, a cumulative decrease of 19000 tons for the whole month, a decrease of about 3.4%.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory in November:
In November 2025, the overall social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China showed a trend of slight fluctuations followed by sustained and steady destocking. The inventory gradually declined from a relatively high level at the beginning of the month, with only a brief accumulation in mid November, which did not change the core trend of overall destocking. Specifically, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China at the end of November was 596000 tons, a cumulative decrease of 26000 tons from the reference value of 622000 tons at the beginning of the month, a decrease of about 4.18%. During this period, inventory did not decline in a one-way manner, but went through a process of “mild fluctuations – temporary accumulation in mid month – accelerated destocking in mid to late month”. For example, on November 17th, inventory had increased to 637000 tons, but downstream procurement subsequently made efforts, causing inventory to quickly fall and continue to decline.
Macro expectations boost market sentiment
Recent macroeconomic expectations have boosted market sentiment and helped to reduce inventory. In November, dovish speeches by Federal Reserve officials raised expectations of interest rate cuts, market risk appetite increased, traders’ stocking enthusiasm increased, and inventory turnover speed accelerated. At the same time, in order to avoid the risk of subsequent price fluctuations, midstream and downstream enterprises reserve raw materials in advance during the price decline stage, further accelerating the circulation and digestion of social inventory, and promoting the continuous decline of inventory.
Aluminum price forecast
In the short term, aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate horizontally, and the downward space for aluminum prices is limited in the state of destocking.

The supply-demand pattern has improved in stages, and PTA prices fluctuated upwards in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market slightly rose in November, and remained stagnant in the second half of the month. As of November 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4628 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86% from the beginning of the month.
OPEC+has launched a new round of production increases, but the crude oil market remains concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The regional situation has eased, and coupled with weakened demand from the United States, the issue of US tariffs has dragged down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a volatile decline in international crude oil prices. As of November 26th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.65 per barrel, and the settlement price of the February Brent crude oil futures contract was $62.54 per barrel.
In terms of supply, the short-term PTA processing fees are still low, and inventory remains low. At the end of the month, Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million ton PTA plant restarted, but Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton plant was shut down, and some plants continued to undergo maintenance. The overall domestic supply continues to shrink, and the industry’s operating rate is at 73%. In addition, with the cancellation of BIS, there has been a significant increase in exports from mainstream suppliers, and spot liquidity has tightened.
Downstream polyester production is gradually increasing, and there are still multiple new units expected to be put into operation before the new year. In addition, some polyester units are planned to restart, and the inventory pressure of polyester filament factories is not high, so the overall demand for essential procurement is maintained. Terminal weaving, due to the fact that winter clothing orders have been basically delivered and demand is flat, the pace of domestic and international procurement is gradually slowing down, and there is insufficient momentum for new orders. At the end of the month, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66%, and some weaving enterprises still have expectations of reducing losses.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, geopolitical instability will increase oil price risks, and oil prices may be supported. There has been an increase in the supply side, and the supply and demand still maintain a tight balance. However, there are many unstable external factors, and the commodity trend is deadlocked. In addition, terminal demand has entered the off-season, and there is insufficient momentum to chase after the rise. It is expected that PTA prices will mainly fluctuate and adjust in November.