According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market showed a “inverted V” trend in May. As of May 29th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6522 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69% from the beginning of the month. The cost increase in the first half of the month has driven the price of polyester staple fiber more, but in the second half, with the weakening of raw material support and stagnant demand, the price of polyester staple fiber has weakened. Looking at the future market:
The current settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the US crude oil market is $61.84 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures is $64.32 per barrel. Trump has postponed imposing tariffs on the European Union, but OPEC and its allies are considering another significant increase in production, so the oil market is weighing the short-term prospects of easing trade tensions and increasing OPEC+supply.
Recently, with the restoration of PX benefits, some domestic and foreign facilities have increased their capacity, and early-stage maintenance facilities have gradually restarted. For example, the 1.6 million ton facilities of Zhongjin Petrochemical and the 4 million ton facilities of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been restarted in advance, resulting in a gradual increase in PX supply. The gradual reduction in downstream polyester production, weakened supply and demand margins, and limited support for crude oil prices have put significant upward pressure on PX. However, as the downstream PTA load gradually increases, the short-term supply and demand of PX are good, and the current spot market supply is tight, PX is still relatively resistant to decline.
In May, PTA plants underwent centralized maintenance, and in the latter half of the year, PTA plants were gradually restarted. As of the end of the month, the PTA industry’s operating rate was around 78%. In terms of price, the domestic PTA spot market in May showed a trend of first rising and then falling. As of May 29th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4972 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.47% from the beginning of the month. After the repair of the disk processing fee, the implementation of device maintenance in June and July may not meet expectations. New production capacity such as Honggang Petrochemical Phase III and Hailun Petrochemical Phase III will be put into operation from June to August, with a focus on loose supply in the long term.
Under the sharp rise in raw material prices, downstream yarn factories have expanded their losses, and pure polyester yarn processing fees continue to be under pressure, resulting in insufficient repair power. In addition, with the expectation of China’s export rush to the United States gradually coming to an end in late June and the arrival of the off-season for domestic sales, the production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 70%, and the atmosphere of raw fabric orders has once again fallen, making it difficult to raise fabric prices. After stocking up at a low level at the terminal, the main focus is on digesting raw material inventory, and cautious observation is needed for first-time purchases.
Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that crude oil prices are dominated by geopolitical risks and policy games, and unexpected events may drive up oil price volatility. The increase in supply brought about by the launch of new PTA production capacity and the restart of maintenance facilities will suppress the upward space of PTA prices. The cost support will be weakened. On the demand side, the domestic and foreign trade orders at the terminal are weak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream is pessimistic about the future market, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, so the pressure on the staple fiber factory to destock is increasing. Short term short fiber prices are expected to follow fluctuations in crude oil prices, and there is still a downside risk overall.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China gradually strengthened and rose sharply in May. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 10733 yuan/ton. On May 28th, the TDI price was 12266 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.29% during the month and a decrease of 59.52% year-on-year.
The TDI market in East China continued to rise in May, with a sustained strong trend. At the beginning of the month, there were frequent reports of major manufacturers raising their prices. Under the expectation of reduced supply, suppliers actively pushed up prices, while intermediaries raised their prices. The attitude towards downstream market entry is cautious, with a focus on essential needs. In the middle of the month, the implementation of tariff policies boosted market confidence, leading to a rise in supply side prices and an increase in trading volume. At the end of the month, there were frequent reports of price adjustments and limited supply from major factories. At the same time, the maintenance equipment was repaired according to the plan, and the new maintenance date was determined. The replenishment of goods slowed down, further supporting the price increase.
Supply side: High load operation in Wanzhong, Fujian. BASF’s 160000 tons/year TDI plant in Shanghai will undergo maintenance on May 15th, lasting approximately three weeks. The shutdown and maintenance of the 128000 ton/year TDI plant in Tokyo, Japan is expected to last for 2 months. There is a maintenance plan for the 360000 tons/year TDI plant in Fujian on June 5th, which will last for about 45 days.
The upstream toluene market fluctuated and rose in May. From May 1st to 27th, the domestic toluene market price increased from 3590 yuan/ton to 5460 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.21% during the period. After the May Day holiday, the crude oil market first fell and then rose, driving the volatile trend of the toluene market. Subsequently, demand improved, leading to an increase in toluene prices.
Market analysis shows that TDI data analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the news of price increases and discounted supply from major manufacturers at the end of the month will further boost market confidence. The supplier has a strong willingness to raise prices, and intermediaries are reluctant to sell at low prices. It is expected that the TDI market will operate strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 25th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the price of 5446.67 yuan/ton on May 19th, and a decrease of 1.51% compared to the beginning of the month. On the demand side, low purchasing is sought after, resulting in low market transactions and sluggish shipments of ethyl acetate enterprises. As a result, raw material prices have risen, leading to increased pressure on the cost of ethyl acetate.
This week, the domestic ethyl acetate plant has started production steadily, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is not significant. The supply side news is quiet, and enterprises are actively shipping. Downstream demand performance is poor, with many low-priced inquiries in the market and insufficient new order transactions. There is a supply-demand game in the market, and prices were weakly lowered at the beginning of the week. Upstream acetic acid prices rose, supporting the stable operation of ethyl acetate prices.
In the future, the ethyl acetate market is expected to operate weakly, with many manufacturers adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream demand is weak, and sales pressure on enterprises is high. The continuous increase in raw material prices provides some support for the market. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will consolidate in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7583 yuan/ton on May 19th and 7496 yuan/ton on May 26th, a decrease of 1.14% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9316 yuan/ton on May 19th and 9216 yuan/ton on May 26th, a decrease of 1.07% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8142 yuan/ton on May 19th and 8130 yuan/ton on May 26th, a decrease of 0.15% during this period.
Recently, the polyethylene market has declined. The cost side of crude oil has been fluctuating recently, with loose support on the cost side. The supply side has sufficient spot goods, but the boost is limited. Agricultural film is in a low season of demand, with insufficient follow-up on new orders. Petrochemical companies and traders continue to offer discounts to promote transactions, resulting in low downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods. There is no positive news guidance on site, and the mentality is bearish. In the short term, it is expected that polyethylene will continue to show a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of cotton yarn in the market has been stable this week, showing a characteristic of clear stability and hidden decline. As of May 23rd, the spot price of 21S pure cotton ring spinning in Shandong Province, China is around 22265 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week; The spot price of 32S pure cotton ring spinning is estimated to be around 23775 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.
Market Overview: The cost of textile enterprises continued to increase this week, but after a round of price adjustments last week, downstream acceptance was limited and purchases were cautious. In addition, the number of new orders from textile enterprises was limited, and the off-season in the market was obvious. It was difficult for yarn prices to continue to rise, but the price trend remained stable. The current pace of cotton yarn shipments remains relatively balanced, with prices showing a clear, stable, and downward trend. Downstream textile factories adopt a procurement strategy guided by order demand, taking goods on demand, and maintaining a cautious and wait-and-see attitude in the medium to long term.
Startup situation: Downstream demand is limited, and this week’s orders from textile enterprises are still mainly small and short, with fewer large and fresh orders. The startup rate of textile enterprises has slightly decreased, with about 90% of Xinjiang textile enterprises starting up and 60-70% starting up in mainland China. As of May 22, the startup load of mainstream textile enterprises in China was 74.5%, a decrease of 0.13% compared to the previous month.
Inventory situation: The favorable release of tariff reduction has boosted market confidence in the short term, leading to the restart of some terminal orders. However, new orders have not yet been reflected, and some textile enterprises have slightly accumulated inventory. Some large factories in Xinjiang have inventory for about 30 days, while mainland enterprises have inventory for about 15-20 days. As of May 8th, the yarn inventory of major regional textile enterprises was 29.3 days, with a weekly decrease of 1.68%.
Cost wise: Cotton prices have risen this week. Based on the current domestic cotton inventory and next season’s planting expectations, the short-term macro will continue to boost cotton prices. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the fundamental changes after entering the off-season. It is expected that the cotton price range will fluctuate in the coming week, with spot prices remaining at 14250-14600 yuan/ton.
Weak demand: The cotton fabric market continues to operate weakly. The sluggish terminal demand has led to weak order taking by textile factories, resulting in a shortage of new orders in both domestic and foreign markets. Currently, small and multi batch orders are the main focus, and the production proportion of conventional varieties has increased. Affected by the imbalance between production and sales, the inventory of raw fabric has shown a slow accumulation trend. Some weaving factories have reduced their operating loads and generally adopted a cautious strategy of “buying as needed”.
Market forecast: The upward trend in cotton prices has squeezed the immediate profit margin of textile enterprises, coupled with the arrival of the off-season in the cotton yarn market, resulting in the accumulation of finished product inventory risks, leading to a lack of upward momentum in yarn prices. In the short term, prices are likely to remain stable and difficult to fluctuate significantly. If there is no significant improvement in demand from downstream weaving factories, it cannot be ruled out that yarn prices may continue to decline.