The bidding price for hydrogen fluoride in August decreased by 100-200 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10650 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.39% from the end of July.
Raw material side: The domestic fluorite price trend has slightly increased this week. As of August 7th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3156.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60% compared to the beginning of this month (3137.50 yuan/ton). The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The rise in fluorite prices has put pressure on the cost of hydrofluoric acid, and there is still pressure for production enterprises to incur losses. The purchasing sentiment for high priced fluorite raw materials is relatively low, and it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid industry will continue to operate weakly and consolidate.
Demand side: The downstream refrigerant market has weak terminal demand, low stocking enthusiasm, and mainly purchases upstream products on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The market trading atmosphere is cold, and some companies have reduced their raw material demand due to profit losses.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite will rise, downstream terminal demand will be weak, supply and demand will not be supported by favorable factors, and market trading will be sluggish. It is expected that the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market will continue to operate weakly and consolidate in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From July 28th to August 4th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 9466.67 yuan/ton to 9050 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.4% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated downward in this cycle, and port inventories in East China have been running at a low level recently. However, domestic refineries are actively shipping, and overall supply is relatively sufficient. As prices continue to decline, downstream stocks are being replenished at low prices, and market trading conditions are still favorable, with overall demand still leaning towards rigid demand. Lacking substantial positive support, the overall price declined during the week.
Cost wise: As of August 1st, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $67.33 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October contract is $69.67 per barrel. The market is concerned that OPEC may increase oil production, coupled with US employment data dragging down the demand outlook.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9200 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 200 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 4th, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China has been weakly consolidated. Both Tianjiao and Shunding rubber futures fell, with a small number of urgent inquiries from downstream tire factories, resulting in light market transactions and lower quotes from spot market merchants. At present, the mainstream prices in Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11850-12300 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 11600 to 11900 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is weak and volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend is still influenced by supply and demand. Recently, some downstream units have restarted, and the supply side is expected to increase. From the perspective of demand side, the overall demand is relatively rigid, and the support on the demand side is limited. Overall, the supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that the butadiene market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in July saw a consolidation after a decline, and some spot prices of certain brands were lowered. As of July 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 14333.33 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.92% compared to early July.
cause analysis
On the supply side: Since July, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have rebounded after experiencing a decline in load. At the beginning of the month, Sichuan Tianhua, Shengtong Juyuan and other enterprises successively announced their maintenance plans. In the middle of the month, Pingmei Shenma also joined the maintenance queue, and there were six industry load reduction parking devices in the area. However, most of them are short-term parking, and production capacity will fully return in the second half of the month. At the end of the month, the industry average operating level returned to 77% of the beginning of the month, and the weekly average output was close to 65000 tons. The on-site supply is abundant, with high inventory levels remaining stagnant, and the pattern of ample PC supply remains unchanged. After the addition, there is a shortage of maintenance news in the market, and the pressure on shipments has not decreased. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A fell and then fluctuated in July. Upstream acetone and phenol also fluctuated at a low level in the middle and upper stages, dragging down spot prices. Although there is a rebound trend in raw materials at the end of the month, bisphenol A is also affected by supply and demand contradictions, with weak demand and a lack of upward momentum in the market. Overall, the intraday market trend of bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs. However, with PC prices currently at historically low levels, the easing of cost pressures has also given PC some room for maneuver.
On the demand side: Currently, it is the traditional off-season for PC, with downstream factories experiencing lower loads and weak inventory, mainly due to rigid demand, further dragging down the consumer end. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply-demand contradiction within the range has not improved. At present, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders and are resistant to high priced goods. The financial pressure on merchants has increased, and there has been an increase in the practice of offering discounts on actual orders. The circulation speed of on-site goods is slow, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market experienced a narrow decline in July. The upstream bisphenol A market stabilized after a decline, providing moderate support for PC cost values. The concession of raw materials has made it difficult for the industry to operate at a high level, and the load of domestic PC aggregation plants has rebounded after falling, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. The off-season characteristics of downstream demand are obvious, and market benefits are difficult to materialize. Industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. It is expected that the PC market will continue to search for a bottom in the future, but PC prices are already at historical lows, and the downward space may be limited,

Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July
Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20596.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% from the market average price of 20786.67 yuan/ton on July 1.
The fundamental characteristics of aluminum ingots in July are as follows:
Aluminum ingot production capacity first decreased and then increased in July
From the perspective of operating capacity, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at the end of June was about 43.83 million tons. Due to a slight decrease in capacity replacement, the industry’s operating rate declined month on month. The monthly output was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of about 3.2% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. In July, the Yunnan replacement project was put into operation, and the overall operating capacity remained at a high level. Due to adjustments in production capacity replacement projects in some regions, there was a brief contraction in early production. However, with the gradual implementation of new projects in July, the overall production capacity supply has resumed its growth trend. For example, the newly launched projects in Yunnan gradually released production capacity in July, increasing the supply of electrolytic aluminum in the market and creating potential downward pressure on prices. This dynamic change in production capacity, which first decreases and then increases, affects the market’s expectations for aluminum ingot supply.
The impact of excess pressure on upstream core raw material alumina
Aluminum oxide, as the core raw material for electrolytic aluminum production, was significantly affected by oversupply pressure in the aluminum ingot market in July. The recovery of industry profits has led to the release of alumina production capacity to historical highs, and domestic production continues to rebound. Due to the abundant supply of alumina, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable and even has room for decline, which also gives electrolytic aluminum enterprises the motivation to increase production to a certain extent. Moreover, the issue of tight delivery capacity in Xinjiang is expected to ease in August. This expectation began to suppress market speculation on alumina and related aluminum products in July, resulting in a lack of support for raw material speculation in the rise of aluminum ingot prices. Against the backdrop of an oversupply of alumina, the stability of the aluminum ingot market supply has been enhanced, further suppressing the upward potential of prices.
Downstream demand is relatively weak
In July, it was the traditional off-season for consumption, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises generally declined. From the perspective of the aluminum processing industry, the weekly aluminum production rate has shown a downward trend, especially in categories such as aluminum plates and strips. During the off-season, market demand is sluggish, downstream enterprises’ orders decrease, and the purchase volume of aluminum ingots also decreases accordingly. In order to control costs and reduce inventory backlog, enterprises often adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement, resulting in average spot transactions of aluminum ingots and low market activity. When downstream enterprises face high aluminum prices, their willingness to accept orders is seriously insufficient, further weakening the market demand for aluminum ingots and forming a downward driving force on prices.

Differentiated demand in key downstream industries. In the field of new energy vehicles, from July 1st to 27th, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in China increased by 15% year-on-year, but decreased by 17% compared to the same period last month, indicating weaker demand compared to the previous month. This indicates that the growth rate of demand for aluminum in the new energy vehicle industry slowed down in July, failing to form strong support for aluminum ingot prices. In the photovoltaic field, the overall output of photovoltaic modules in August showed limited month on month changes, and its driving effect on aluminum demand was also insufficient in July. Despite the overall development stage of the new energy industry, during a specific period in July, the demand for aluminum ingots was difficult to drive up prices due to seasonal factors, market adjustments, and other factors. Instead, weak demand growth intensified downward pressure on prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a V-shaped trend in July. As of July 30th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.79% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the cost support for crude oil fluctuations was limited, and the PTA industry’s capacity expansion expectations were combined with polyester production reduction expectations. Under the weak supply-demand situation, PTA showed a weak pattern. But with the recovery of macro sentiment and the firm trend of commodities, the PTA market rebounded weakly due to this impact.
In terms of self supply, PTA has not announced any new equipment maintenance plans for July. The industry has sufficient supply, and there are new equipment tests, which are negative for PTA prices. At present, the PTA load is maintained at around 80%, and it is expected that the PTA plant maintenance will increase in August under low processing costs.
Recently, due to the combined impact of long and short factors, the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States is still ongoing, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. As of July 29th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $69.21 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.51 per barrel.
The downstream polyester industry has entered the traditional off-season of consumption, with insufficient orders leading to a weakening of the industry’s bargaining power. Profits are gradually shifting upstream, losses are beginning to expand, and procurement enthusiasm is hindered, maintaining essential procurement. Under the atmosphere of macroeconomic sentiment warming at the end of the month, it stimulated buying sentiment and led to a slight increase in demand.
According to analysts from Shengyi Society, the current terminal inventory has been replenished at a low level, and the inventory pressure of polyester factories has eased. It is expected that PTA supply and demand will improve in August compared to expectations, but the subsequent supply and demand expectations are still weak, and the upward driving force is limited. The overall PTA price still follows the cost side and market sentiment fluctuations.