1、 Price trend

 

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of tetrachloroethylene continued to rise in March, maintaining a high level of operation. On March 31st, the average price of tetrachloroethylene was 5155 yuan/ton, and on March 1st, the average price of tetrachloroethylene was 4800 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.29%.

 

2、 Analysis and Review

 

Tetrachloroethylene is currently operating at a high level, with mainstream factory quotes of 5050-5300 yuan/ton. Demand is stable, but supply is tight. According to customs data, the export volume of tetrachloroethylene in February was 1155.6 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 14.5%, and there is no import situation. The market supply is tight, and distributors are closely following the increase of large factories.

 

The downstream refrigerant R125 market has implemented a price increase of 42000-45000 yuan/ton, up 4000 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The refrigerant market continued to soar in the first quarter and is currently operating at a high level, with a continuous supply-demand game. The mainstream refrigerant market is expected to continue to recover in April, with strong demand for production in May. The market shortage is expected to remain difficult to alleviate, and short-term growth is expected to slow down.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that downstream demand is improving, and the price of tetrachloroethylene is expected to maintain a high level of operation.

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Recently, the polyvinyl alcohol market has been fluctuating downward, and market news has been bearish. As of April 2nd, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol at Shengyishe was 12283.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.53% compared to last week (12350.00 yuan/ton).

 

In 1799, the mainstream negotiations in the market were 11800-12800 yuan/ton for cash delivery, in 2699, 12300-13500 yuan/ton for cash delivery, in 1788, 12300-13500 yuan/ton for cash delivery, in 2488, 13300-14700 yuan/ton for cash delivery, and in 2099, 12000 13300 yuan/ton for cash delivery.

 

Fundamental analysis:

 

Supply side:

 

The domestic vinyl acetate market weakened significantly in the previous cycle, with two declines ranging from 800 to 1000 yuan/ton. As of April 2nd, the price of vinyl acetate in the East China market is around 6400, the price in the South China market is around 6650, and the price in the North China market is around 6600. The market supply is sufficient, and the on-site trading atmosphere is cold. The operation of the vinyl acetate unit is stable, and downstream demand is following up. Enterprise inventory is higher than market demand. The low prices in the market continued to increase during the week, but it was difficult to affect the demand side and continued to be low with a small amount of transactions.

 

Demand side:

 

The downstream market is showing a weak situation, and the market is gradually starting to operate, but the overall situation is not as good as in previous years. The usage has not improved, and the purchasing willingness is not good, making it difficult to increase the volume. Enterprises are offering discounts to sell. Overall, the demand side still slows down, and the negative impact on the polyvinyl alcohol market.

 

Future Market Forecast:

 

Supply side:

 

It is expected that the vinyl acetate market will continue to be weak and stable in recent days, and downstream demand has not significantly recovered. This may lead to further price reductions by holders, which will have a negative impact on corporate quotations and accelerate the decline. Business owners still have a bearish sentiment towards the future market, and they are cautious in their actual order operations. Overall,

 

Demand side:

 

Polymer additives, fabric slurries, and adhesives are expected to increase in demand due to weather changes and the expected increase in terminal construction. The market negotiation atmosphere will warm up, and demand may improve. Downstream demand is expected to rebound, which will have a certain stimulating effect on the polyvinyl alcohol market and provide support and increase.

 

Overall

 

The market price of polyvinyl alcohol is significantly affected by both the raw material and demand sides, and the overall industry chain is interconnected. The increase in demand is crucial and will boost the trend of the polyvinyl alcohol market. It is expected that the polyvinyl alcohol market will experience a slight upward trend, and the price fluctuation range in the future is between 12500 and 13000 yuan/ton.

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According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of March 31, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7966 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 8233 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 267 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.24%.

 

In March, the butanone market can be described as “slightly warm but still cold”. At the beginning of March, although there was a brief upward trend in the butanone market, the overall effective support of the market was insufficient. Starting from mid to late March, the butanone market began a weak downward trend, and by the end of the month, the butanone market had ended with a weak decline. As of March 31st, the domestic market price of butanone is around 7700-8300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 100-300 yuan/ton during the month.

 

Analysis of Factors Influencing the March Butanone Market

 

In terms of supply: At the beginning of the month, the overall on-site supply of butanone was tight, with low operating rates and low inventory in butanone factories. In addition, some butanone factories delivered export orders, resulting in lower overall supply pressure. Therefore, at the beginning of the month, both the supply side and the export side provided some upward support to the market.

 

In terms of demand: In March, the overall performance of the domestic demand market for butanone remained average, with downstream purchases continuing to be the main focus. After the export order support gradually weakened at the beginning of the month, the drag of demand on the market for butanone gradually emerged. Due to the continued weak demand, supply pressure also came. Therefore, in the middle and late stages, due to demand pressure, the focus of negotiations in the butanone market continued to decline.

 

The price situation of butanone in the mainstream market in March

 

Region/ Product/ March 31st/ Monthly fluctuations

Shandong region/ Butanone/ 7700-7800./-300

Jiangsu region/ Butanone/ 7750-7800./-200

South China region/ Butanone/ 8100-8200./-300

East China region/ Butanone/ 7700-7800./-300

Market analysis of butanone

 

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the butanone market is quiet, and there is definitely a clear wait-and-see view in the market. Downstream stocking and replenishment are still showing caution. Business Society butanone data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust and operate within a certain range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

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Domestic cobalt prices rose first and then fell in March

 

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on March 29th was 224000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% compared to the cobalt price of 218600 yuan/ton on March 1st; Compared to the cobalt price of 227000 yuan/ton on March 19th, it decreased by 1.32%. The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the market grew less than expected. The support for the rise in cobalt prices was limited, and cobalt prices rose first and then fell in March.

 

Domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased

 

According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 464000 and 477000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16% and 9.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.252 million and 1.207 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 29.4%, and a market share of 30%.

 

The China Passenger Car Association released an analysis of the national passenger car market for February 2024. In terms of wholesale sales, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 447000 units in February, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% and a month on month decrease of 35.0%. In terms of retail sales, the new energy vehicle market sold 388000 units in February, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% and a month on month decrease of 42.1%.

 

In February, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased year-on-year, leading to a decrease in demand in the cobalt market. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, but decreased month on month. The support for the increase in demand in the cobalt market is insufficient. The Ministry of Commerce has shown significant results in promoting the “100 City Linkage” Automobile Festival and the “Thousand Counties and Ten Thousand Towns” New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season, with continuous efforts in promoting consumption policies in multiple regions, stimulating more demand for car purchases. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase, and the demand for cobalt in the future is expected to rebound.

 

Mobile phone sales have increased

 

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in February 2024, the domestic market shipped 14.257 million mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9%. Among them, there were 12.532 million 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 29.2%, accounting for 87.9% of the same period’s mobile phone shipments. From January to February 2024, the domestic market shipped 46.035 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. Among them, there were 38.697 million 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, accounting for 84.1% of the same period’s mobile phone shipments. The sales of mobile phones have increased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the market has steadily increased.

 

According to the latest forecast from IDC’s global quarterly smartphone tracking report, smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.2 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Overall smartphone trading volume is still lower than pre pandemic levels, but the market has self corrected and is emerging from a downturn. In the future, the sales of mobile phones will increase, and the demand for cobalt will rebound.

 

According to Canalys data, in January 2024, the shipment volume of smartphones in the five major markets in Southeast Asia surged to 7.26 million units, a 20% year-on-year increase. The sales of mobile phones in the Southeast Asian market are soaring, and the demand for mobile phones is increasing. The demand for cobalt in the international market is also increasing.

From domestic and global mobile phone sales, it can be seen that in the fourth quarter of 2023, domestic mobile phone sales rebounded, and the domestic mobile phone market slowly recovered; The sales of mobile phones in the Southeast Asian market are soaring, and the global mobile phone market is expected to rebound in 2024, leading to an increase in the global mobile phone market. Overall, global and domestic mobile phone market sales have slowly rebounded, and the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market has rebounded.

 

The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year

 

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in January was 69453 physical tons, equivalent to 20938 metal tons, an increase of 32.95% month on month and 133.65% year-on-year. The import volume of cobalt raw materials in February was 44761 physical tons, equivalent to 13585 metal tons, a month on month decrease of 35.12% and a year-on-year increase of 76.26%. The total import volume of cobalt raw materials from January to February was 114214 tons, equivalent to 34523 metal tons of cobalt. From January to February, cobalt raw materials gradually arrived at the port. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival, ship arrivals were delayed, and the overall arrival volume of cobalt raw materials in February decreased. It is expected that the arrival volume of cobalt raw materials in March will increase, with an expected arrival volume of 15000-16000 metal tons.

 

Overview and Outlook

 

Business Society data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that on the demand side, global and domestic mobile phone market sales have rebounded, and the demand for cobalt in mobile phones has increased; The sales of new energy vehicles have decreased month on month, and the demand for cobalt in the market has rebounded. The growth of demand for cobalt in electric vehicles is insufficient, and the demand side has limited positive effects on the domestic cobalt market. On the supply side, the arrival of cobalt raw materials in February has slightly declined, but the expected arrival of cobalt raw materials in March has increased significantly, indicating sufficient supply in the cobalt market. Overall, the demand growth in the cobalt market is lower than expected, with sufficient supply of cobalt raw materials. The oversupply of cobalt in the market remains limited, and the support for the rise in cobalt prices is limited. It is expected that cobalt prices will remain weak and consolidate at a low level in the future.

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Recently (3.18-3.27), the trichloromethane market in Shandong region has been operating steadily. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 27th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region was 2780 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the previous period. Downstream production remains stable with on-demand stocking, while terminal procurement performance is mediocre; The price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine has slightly increased. The cost of trichloromethane continues to support, and the trichloromethane market is stable and consolidating.

 

Recently (3.18-3.27), there has been a slight increase in domestic methane chloride supply, with overall production starting around 70%.

 

Recently (3.18-3.27), the price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine has slightly increased. The cost of trichloromethane still has support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 27th, the spot price of methanol was 2636 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from 2701 yuan/ton on March 18th. As of March 27th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has remained around 400 yuan/ton, which is higher than the previous period.

 

Recently (3.18-3.27), the sales of air conditioners were good during the peak season. According to statistics, the production of household air conditioners in March was 22.13 million units, an increase of 25.2% compared to the same period last year. The prices of refrigerants during the peak season have increased. However, since the issuance of HFCs refrigerant quotas, refrigerant enterprises have mainly ordered production based on the annual quota, and overall production has remained stable at a low level. Demand is weak in support of trichloromethane.

 

Business Society methane chloride data analysts believe that the cost of trichloromethane still has support; The downstream refrigerant industry is experiencing peak seasons but production remains low, with limited support for the demand for trichloromethane. Overall, in the short term, the trichloromethane market is mainly stable and consolidating.

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