From January to February 2019, the price of raw coal tar declined sharply in the early stage, but the price of raw coal tar rose later. However, due to the Spring Festival holidays, more downstream overhauls and less purchases of carbon black, the price of carbon black did not rise, and the market price was temporarily stable. From March to June, due to the high price of raw materials, the high cost pressure of carbon black and the rising price of carbon black market, but due to the reduction of downstream demand, the price of carbon black market is severely depressed, coupled with low-price competition in the market, which limits the price increase of carbon black. In the second half of the year, due to the decrease of downstream demand and the off-season of downstream demand in July and August, the trend of carbon black falling easily and rising difficultly will continue.

In the first half of 2019, the profit of carbon black market was in a loss situation. Especially in the first quarter, a number of listed companies issued news that carbon black losses are serious, corporate profits fell more than last year.

Why the carbon black market is losing so much depends on the most important downstream tire market.

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released tire sales data for the first half of the year. In the first half of 2019, the sales volume of rubber tyres in China totaled 40,467.9 million, down 5.4% from 42,756,000 in the same period last year; the production and sales rate increased by 100.4% and decreased by 3.6% compared with the previous quarter; and the inventory at the end of the year decreased by 3% compared with the beginning of the year. De-stocking is an industry consensus.

In the first half of 2019, the terminal tire market started to decline compared with last year. In the first half of the year, due to the reduction of terminal car sales, combined with trade and other factors, the tire factory started to decline. Due to the decline in start-up, the demand for carbon black in tire market in the first half of the year decreased by 706,600 tons compared with last year, and the demand decreased considerably, which limited the growth of the whole carbon black market and caused serious losses.

Internationally, recently, Donghai Carbon Corporation announced that it would increase the price of carbon black in the US market due to the rising cost of raw materials. The new price will be calculated by the company based on the current situation and will be announced to the outside world in the near future. Carbon in the East China Sea indicated that the shale oil revolution in the United States had reduced the supply of carbon black raw materials and increased the production cost of carbon black. With the rising production cost of carbon black, the international carbon black giant announced a price increase. Domestic carbon black enterprises are expected to follow the global price rise, thus increasing the performance in the second half of the year.

On July 30, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 30th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On July 29, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 10 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 812-814 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 821-823 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 29, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 56.87 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.67 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 63.71 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.25 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. 。 Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined 30 days, the average price of East China is around 5500-5600 yuan/ton, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 85%, downstream production and sales rate is lower, but PTA market price is slightly lower, and it is expected that PX market price will be in the later period. Maintain shock.

Price Trend

On July 28, the TDI commodity index was 72.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.70% from the cycle peak of 248.02 points (2016-10-19), and up 20.76% from the lowest point of 60.17 on February 22, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Product: According to statistics, TDI price trend in East China market is rising. TDI price in East China market rose 2.43% on 29th to 14066.67 yuan/ton. The market of TDI in East China has been shaken and tidied up. There is a strong atmosphere of on-site wait-and-see. All parties pay close attention to the status of factories. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with tickets is 13600-13700 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is 13700-13800 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: Upstream toluene, compared with the previous trading day, Sinopec’s enterprises today’s toluene listing price unchanged. Shandong Geotechnical Refining Enterprises have a stable listing price today. Traders have raised their quotations today, and the price in East China is about 5550 yuan per ton. As for nitric acid, the market demand is still acceptable and the market is stable for the time being.

Industry: Last week, the domestic TDI market fell first and then rose. The factories were flat and stable. The pressure was low. With the instability of Wanhua’s plant and the announcement of Yinguang’s maintenance plan, the mentality of the traders boosted the offer. Basf and Wanhua announced the closing price one after another. The traders watched cautiously.

III. Price Forecast

TDI business analysts believe that the short-term domestic TDI market is stable and relatively strong, focusing on factory information surface guidance.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic chlorinated paraffin market rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5033 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5066 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up by 0.66%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5100 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4400-5000 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 3800-5500 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4100-5400 yuan/ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is about 4900 yuan/ton. The price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong is 4200-4800 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The upstream liquid wax market is running smoothly without obvious fluctuation in price. The volume of new orders is average. The price of liquid chlorine is still stable, and some districts sell at a reduced price, which has no effect on the overall market.

Crude Oil: The Fed’s interest rate cut expectations are still rising, and international oil prices are rising slightly, but the easing of the situation in the Middle East and the gloomy prospects for global economic growth have suppressed the increase. On Friday (July 26), WTI September 19 futures rose $0.18 a barrel at $56.20, while Brent September 19 futures rose $0.07 at $63.46. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract was about 1909 yuan 442.5 yuan per barrel, up 1.1 yuan.

3. Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts at business associations believe that prices in the upstream market are stable and trading is insufficient. The current chlorinated paraffin Market as a whole is flat, downstream demand is sluggish, the market has a wait-and-see attitude, mainly in the previous order. Although the price of chlorinated paraffin rose slightly this week, it is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will remain weak in the later period.

On July 24, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 56.93, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.61% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 17.58% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

In recent years, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has shocked, downstream factories are still in need of purchasing, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiation is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5200-5400 yuan/ton. Mainstream quotation is 5 650-5 800 yuan/ton, market price keeps oscillating, quotations of enterprises are slightly lower, downstream start-up is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, phthalic anhydride prices are declining.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import price of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, and the quotation has risen. Recently, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is higher, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend shocks, phthalic anhydride market price slightly declines. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride prices fell, isooctanol prices fell, DOP costs fell. DOP price trend is declining, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility is low, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7300 yuan/ton, downstream prices are constantly falling, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to decline slightly later.