I. Lithium hydroxide price trend:

According to the data from the business associations’list, as of August 20, the price of lithium hydroxide has been lowered. At present, the mainstream price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide is about 66000-78000 yuan/ton, which is 1.30% lower than last Tuesday (August 13) and 4.00% lower than July 20.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Lithium hydroxide market price down. The output of the manufacturer is gradually increasing, but the terminal demand is weak, the enthusiasm for stock-up is not high, and the atmosphere of market wait-and-see is strong. At present, Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted as 78,000 yuan/ton, Zigong Tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted as 74,000 yuan/ton, Shanghai Oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted as 76,000 yuan/ton, Shanghai Chen lithium new material industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted as 74,000 yuan/ton, and Aiheng lithium hydroxide is quoted as 74,000 yuan/ton.（ Shanghai) Intelligent technology industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted at 66000 yuan/ton, the specific transaction price is a single fact.

Industry chain: Upstream lithium carbonate prices were stable until 20 days, and the market lacked strong support.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on August 20, 2019, there were 12 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector. The top three commodities were acetic acid (2.62%), ethylene oxide (2.56%) and isopropanol (2.33%). There are 16 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are epichlorohydrin (-7.43%), sulfur (-5.48%) and nitric acid (-4.92%). The average increase and decrease on the 20th day was -0.15%.

3. Future market forecast:

Lithium hydroxide analysts believe that the production capacity of lithium hydroxide has increased recently, but the terminal demand is low and the contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent. In the short term, lithium hydroxide Market is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation.

On August 20, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 20th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% and Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia increased by 2 US dollars/ton on August 19. The closing price is 773-775 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 792-794 US dollars/ton CFR China. More than 50% of domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has certain influence on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of domestic p-xylene is temporarily stable.

On Aug. 19, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $56.21 a barrel, an increase of $1.34. Brent crude oil futures rose to $59.74 a barrel, an increase of $1.10. Statistics released by OPEC on Aug. 16 showed that OPEC cut crude oil production in July as it continued to struggle with falling oil prices. Volume and price of crude oil are rising, which has a positive impact on downstream petrochemical products and a temporary stable price trend for xylene. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend is temporarily stable on the 20th day, the average price in East China is around 5300-5400 yuan/ton, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 90% by the 19th day, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 88%, the downstream production and marketing rate has not changed much, the overall supply of PTA equipment maintenance will be reduced in the next two weeks, and polyester. Under the influence of factory resumption, negative sentiment was released, PTA rebounded, and the cost side supported the price of polyester. At the same time, polyester mills have recently taken the initiative to reduce prices and promote sales. Inventory pressure has been greatly reduced after the volume release. As the traditional sales season of textiles is approaching, “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten”, downstream terminal enterprises may usher in a procurement cycle and demand side will improve. It is expected that the price of PX Market will remain volatile in the short term.

On August 19, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price has maintained stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant is running smoothly, and is in the off-season of downstream demand. The ammonium nitrate manufacturer’s shipment quotation is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, combined with the impact of environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China has stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer has limited start-up, and the on-site price. Maintain a low level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 1950-2050 yuan/ton, Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate was maintained. Keep oscillating.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 19 days, the market price is 1693.33 yuan/ton, the domestic nitric acid market price maintains a low level, mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province offer 1680 yuan/ton, mainstream manufacturers in Anhui Province offer 1700 yuan/ton, and Shandong manufacturers offer 1700 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of nitric acid brings about the market of ammonium nitrate. The price trend of ammonium nitrate remains low due to certain negative effects; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream has fallen back, the market performance is general, the market turnover is still acceptable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3200 yuan/ton, and the upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower. In addition, the inventory pressure of most manufacturers has increased compared with the previous period, and some plants have been restarted. Local ammonia supply has increased in the region, especially in Shanxi and North China. Most of the manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by the manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 2900-3400 yuan/ton. The price quoted by the manufacturers in Northwest China is in the range of 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The decline of liquid ammonia market has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

According to the price data of business associations, as of August 16, the average price of 1.2D*38mm viscose staple fibers in the domestic market was 11662 yuan/ton, down 3.04% annually, 366 yuan/ton, down 19.46% year-on-year, up to 3818 yuan/ton. Mid-end large factories offer 11500-12000 yuan/ton, high-end large factories offer 1160-12000 yuan/ton. Tangshan has long been famous for its high price of 12,500 yuan per ton. In mid-June of this year, the price of viscose staple fibers was 11450 yuan/ton, reaching the lowest price in eight years.

On Tuesday (August 13), international oil prices rose sharply. Sino-US trade relations sent good signals. China had a serious conversation on the US plan to impose tariffs on some Chinese goods on September 1. Meanwhile, the US representative issued a statement saying that some tariffs imposed on China had been postponed until December 15. This news made the market demand side. Worries abated and international oil prices soared. At the same time, the star futures products PTA, MEG, cotton and so on in the textile industry chain have increased in varying degrees. In recent days, PTA and polyester start-up rate are about 8.5-9%, production and marketing rate has also increased significantly. On August 14, the second day after the incident, the production and marketing rate of polyester filament is 340%, the production and marketing rate of polyester staple is as high as 500-1000%, and the production and marketing rate of polyester chips has reached 100-300%.

However, the positive macro news did not pass on to the viscose staple fiber industry chain, market turnover is still flat, almost no response to the news, yarn and grey fabric for viscose market take a hollow view.

The price of downstream man-made cotton yarn was 17200 yuan/ton on the 16th day, down 0.72% annually, or 125 yuan/ton, or 14.68% year-on-year, or up to 2560 yuan/ton. Big factories offer two-level differentiation is more serious, middle-end large factories offer 16200-16500 yuan/ton, high-end large factories offer 17400-17800 yuan/ton. From this week’s spot trend of cotton and cotton yarn, the benefits of Sino-US trade are gradually enlarging, yarn prices are trying to stabilize, but downstream demand is still poor, some yarn stocks are still at a high level, and textile mills are still under great pressure.

In summary, business analysts believe that polyester staple fibers and viscose staple fibers are the same door. Polyester staple fibers make good use of the news to drive a large deal of transactions and transfer inventory smoothly. Viscose staple yarn passes smoothly, and downstream cotton yarn still keeps stock for more than 20 days. As the peak season of gold, silver and silver is approaching, the Development and Reform Commission has issued a series of policies to promote yarn sales. China-US trade on September 1 still imposes tariffs on nearly 65% of textile products. Faced with the volatility of Sino-US friction, the Chinese people have become accustomed to it and have little impact. It is expected that the viscose will not fall again in the short term and run smoothly, waiting for September to change its former state and soar into the sky.

Price Trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been tidied up slightly. As of August 15, the price of butadiene was 1,090 yuan/ton, up 18.85% annually and down 21.72% year-on-year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market is slightly consolidated. Although the supplier price has not been significantly adjusted for the time being, some business offers are relatively strong, but the downstream inquiry intention is weak, and sporadic negotiations are mainly low-end. Fushun Petrochemical announced its export plan, together with a certain amount of other export manufacturers, the expected increase in market supply is obvious; however, the downstream rubber market is weak, some private enterprises parked, the supply and demand fundamentals weakened, and the business mentality is empty.

On the market side, the butadiene market in East China is mainly consolidated. Although the downstream inquiry intention is not high, there is no obvious supply pressure in the region for the time being. The middlemen mainly wait and see for stable prices. The delivery of high-quality products to the offer is maintained at 10600-10700 yuan/ton, and the actual single negotiation is low-end. The market atmosphere of butadiene in North China is weak, the downstream inquiry atmosphere is low, the news of rubber market and terminal demand market is empty, and the turnover of foreign manufacturers is not good, which brings drag on the mentality of the merchants. The price of high-grade products is about 1,015 yuan/ton, which is negotiated separately.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term shutdown; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation; Zhenhai refinery and chemical 165,000 tons/year plant normal operation, mutual supply is the main, a small amount of export; Liaotong Petrochemical 120,000 tons/year butadiene plant normal operation, bidding export trading range 9510-9518 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Silbang, Jiangsu, stopped on July 29 and plans to restart.

3. Future Market Forecast

Although the short-term supply price of Sinopec is high, and domestic manufacturers have no obvious inventory pressure, the downstream trend of synthetic rubber is weak, and there is no lack of parking information for private enterprises, and the market supply and demand is weak. Fushun Petrochemical Restart Export, together with the rest of the northern manufacturers to maintain normal volume, the region is abundant in spot, business community butadiene analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market is not lack of downward expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to the latest prices and turnover of manufacturers.