Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was about 1643.33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the end of the week, down 22.61% from the same period last year. The light soda commodity index on July 12 was 84.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.50% from the peak of 117.86 points in the cycle (2017-11-21), and up 33.44% from the low of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation. At present, the domestic light soda mainstream ex-factory price is 1400-1650 yuan/ton. The heavy soda market has been narrowly sorted out, and the market trading atmosphere has also improved. To form a favorable boost to the heavy alkali market. Heavy alkali mainstream including tax delivery price: At present domestic heavy alkali mainstream delivery terminal price is 1650-1800 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Light alkali downstream daily glass, sodium pyrosulfite and foam alkali enterprises, the demand performance is general, North-South differences are large, in the short term, the mainstream of each region to stable prices, small adjustment plans for individual factories or inventory prices.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 27 th week (7.8-7.12) of 2019, there were 34 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 6 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 7.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (18.18%), epichlorohydrin (7.99%) and octanol (7.44%). 。 There were 23 kinds of products with a decrease in ring ratio. The first three products with a decrease in ring ratio were lithium carbonate (-3.88%), phenol (-3.75%) and trichloromethane (-3.17%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: in the near future, domestic soda manufacturers start a steady load, adequate supply. Soda price has dropped to a low level, the enthusiasm of downstream users and traders to get goods has increased, and the inventory of soda manufacturers has continued to decline. It is expected that the soda market will stabilize and improve in the short term, specifically looking at the downstream market demand.

On July 11, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.59% from the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and up 33.79% from the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 11th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price talks in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has slightly declined, the market price is 1773.33 yuan/ton as of the 11th day. The declining trend of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream has risen slightly, the market performance is general, the market turnover is still acceptable, and most manufacturers have risen by 5%. 0-100 yuan/ton, mainly affected by the increase of upstream costs, transaction remains stable. Most manufacturers’inventory pressure has eased slightly compared with the previous period. Some of the overhauls are the main ones. The supply performance of most manufacturers in North China is still acceptable. The quotations of manufacturers in North China are maintained at around 3200 yuan/ton, while those in Northwest China are above 2750-2800 yuan/ton. Under the normal shipment of manufacturers, rational purchasing of downstream manufacturers, rising prices of raw materials in the upstream have a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

On July 10, the fluorite commodity index was 109.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.34% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 121.93% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 312.5 yuan/ton as of the 10th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market goes up on demand. The trend is rising. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 10th day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained high.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12080 yuan/ton as of the 10th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite is weakening and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may remain volatile.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price trend of cryolite market was stable this week, and the average price of cryolite market was stable at about 6333.33 yuan/ton during the week, down 2.99% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cryolite prices are running smoothly this week, and there is no price adjustment for manufacturers. Up to 28 days, Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Changshu Hongjiafu Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7300 yuan/ton; Jiaozuo Civilian Benefit Industrial Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic fluorite market price has been running steadily this week. The average domestic market price in this week is about 312.50 yuan/ton, up 16.36% from the same period last year. This week, domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tense, the recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, the spot supply of fluorite in the field is normal, the terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in a rise in market price trend. Downstream electrolytic aluminium: This week, the price of aluminium showed a V-shaped trend. The price increased slightly. At the beginning of the week, the price remained around 13773.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, it was about 13823.33 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.36%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of cryolite products of business associations believe that: at present, the device is running normally, the manufacturers have sufficient inventory and no pressure, the ex-factory quotation is temporarily stable, and the market of cryolite is expected to operate steadily in the later period.

On July 8, the PX Commodity Index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 8th, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia is temporarily stable on July 5. The closing price is 818-820 USD/ton FOB Korea and 837-839 USD/ton CFR China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. Xylene price trend is stable for the time being.

On July 5, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 57.51 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.17 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 64.23 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.93 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which has a cost supporting role for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of Brent crude oil futures is temporarily stable. 。 Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend temporarily stabilized on the 8th, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6700-6800 yuan/ton, as of the 5th day domestic PTA start-up rate of about 78%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 99%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price shocks, it is expected that the later PX Market prices will remain shocks. Swing.