On August 12, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 12th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia is temporarily stable on August 9. The closing price is US$771-773/ton FOB Korea and US$790-792/ton CFR China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. Xylene price trend is stable for the time being.

On August 9, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 54.50 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.96 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 58.53 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.15 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which provided some favorable support for downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of p-xylene market was temporarily stable. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA price trend shocks 12 days, the average price in East China is around 5200-5300 yuan/ton, as of 9 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 92.5%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 85%, downstream production and sales rate has not changed much, but PTA market price trend shocks, it is expected that PX market prices will be later. Maintain shock.

I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices have risen sharply this week and the market of cobalt has risen. As of August 9, the price of cobalt was 265,000.00 yuan/ton, up 14.06% from 2323,333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 45.17% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Canon announced the closure of Mutanda Cobalt Mine by the end of 2019

Mutanda is a large copper and cobalt mine in Congo. In 2018, Mutanda produced 190,000 tons of copper and 27,300 tons of cobalt, which accounted for 0.9% and 20.8% of the world’s supply, respectively. Mutanda’s cobalt output reached 134,000 tons in the first half of 2019, which was 13.6% year-on-year. Glencore announced the closure of the cobalt mine by the end of 2019, which is expected to last for two years.

International Cobalt Price Rising

From the price trend chart, it can be seen that the cobalt price in LME market rose sharply in August, and the cobalt market is good. The rise of cobalt price in the international market is good for the domestic cobalt market.

The impact of subsidies recession on sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations

Data show that BYD’s total sales of new energy vehicles this year are 160,000, up 73.17% year-on-year. Beiqi’s new energy sales totaled 78,000 vehicles this year, an increase of 28% over the same period last year. In July, BYD sold 17,000 vehicles, down 11.8% from a year earlier. Sales of Jianghuai New Energy Vehicles fell 66.5% to 1738 in July from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the China Automobile Industry Association has lowered its sales forecast for new energy vehicles this year, from 1.6 million to about 1.5 million. The performance of new energy vehicles is not as expected. The market of new energy vehicles in the future is weakening. The demand of cobalt market is expected to decline, and the driving force of cobalt market is declining.

The growth period of 5G mobile phone is undetermined

Since July, major manufacturers have released their own 5G mobile phones. We are officially entering the 5G era. Although major mobile phone manufacturers have rushed to release a number of 5G mobile phones, from the judgment of research institutions and analysts, consumers may not be able to use 5G mobile phones this year. Until 2020, 5G is unlikely to be widely used in mobile devices. It is estimated that the sales of 5G mobile phones will reach 65 million by 2020. It will take at least two years for 5G to be truly universal. Gartner expects global smartphone sales to fall by 2.5% in 2019, the biggest decline so far. It is very difficult for 5G products to break out in the short term, and there are still uncertainties about when they will break out and whether sales will meet expectations. Generally speaking, future demand is generally bullish, but when it will rise, it is difficult to determine the extent of the increase, and the future demand of cobalt market is full of uncertainty.

Future prospects:

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that the news of the shutdown of Jianeng Cobalt Mine will inevitably lead to a rise in cobalt prices, which are still bullish in the future, but the poor performance of new energy vehicles and the sharp decline in mobile phone sales have a negative impact on future cobalt Market demand. Overall, the negative pressure and positive momentum of cobalt market have been deadlocked for quite a long time. At the same time, because of the serious profit loss of cobalt mining enterprises, the pressure of cobalt price rise is greater. The market is bullish on the future market of new energy vehicles and 5G mobile phones. Although the cobalt price has risen sharply recently, the cobalt price is still in the low price range. The pressure of cobalt price falling is insufficient and the momentum of increase is greater. It is expected that the future cobalt market will rise steadily and slightly in a relatively long period of time.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the market price of propylene oxide rose by 3.39% as of August 8, compared with last Thursday (August 1). Today, the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China is 9,900-10,500 yuan/ton.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Propylene oxide market price rises. Propylene oxide part of the plant equipment to reduce the negative overhaul, low inventory, on-site supply slightly tense, no pressure on goods, mainstream factory prices firm, strong market intention is obvious. On the 8th, the cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 10,200 yuan/ton, and that of East China Mainstream Market was 10,500 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in eastern China is around 10,100 yuan/ton, which is remitted to Shandong; the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 9,900 yuan/ton, which is remitted to factories; and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in North China is around 9,800 yuan/ton, which is remitted to factories.

Industry chain: Shandong market price of upstream propylene dropped sharply on the 8th. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, and began to decline continuously on the 5th day. Today, the price of propylene enterprises has dropped 450-500 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is around 7450-7650 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan/ton. In the downstream polyether market, new orders are weaker and more early orders are executed.

3. Future market forecast:

Propylene oxide analysts believe that, although the upstream price of propylene oxide fell sharply, the cost support of propylene oxide is insufficient, forming a negative factor, but the impact of propylene oxide is relatively limited under the strong support of the good negative reduction of propylene oxide plant. The new weakening of downstream polyether will restrict the rise of propylene oxide. Propylene oxide Market is expected to be stable or moderate in the short term.

I. Price Trend Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market

Price Curve of Polyformaldehyde

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong Province on August 6 was 4833 yuan/ton, which was down 0.67% from last week.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Shandong Aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of polyformaldehyde, the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 9,000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4700 yuan per ton with tax. The price has a downward trend. Weifang Xudong Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 20,000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 5,000 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable for the time being. Influenced by environmental inspection factors, most manufacturers have stopped production, and their quotations are slightly firm.

Industry chain: Polyformaldehyde is affected by the upstream raw materials, the price has a downward trend, the downstream demand of polyformaldehyde is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

To sum up, the analysts of polyformaldehyde in business associations believe that the market of polyformaldehyde will be adjusted mainly in the short term.

On August 6, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 6th, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 5, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 15 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 778-780 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 797-799 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 5, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 54.69 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.97 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 59.81 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 2.08 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of p-xylene market is temporary. Steady. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined on the 6th day. The average price in East China was raised near 5200-5300 yuan/ton. By the 5th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 95%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 84%, and the downstream production and sales rate did not change much. However, PTA market prices were slightly lower. It is expected that PX market prices will be maintained in the later period. Keep oscillating.