I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 15th was 877.25 US dollars / ton, down 5.24% from 925.75 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the month. The current price is down 9.19% year on year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell in shock, as of 15 days, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $737-745 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $787-795 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell, as of 15 days, European ethylene market prices for FD northwest Europe closed at $1031-1042 / T, CIF northwest Europe closed at $937-946 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region fell. As of the 15th, the price was US $435-447 / ton. Overall, the price of upstream crude oil fell for the second consecutive trading day, and the overall ethylene market fell. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on October 15, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 52.81 US dollars / barrel, down 0.78 US dollars or 1.5% from the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures fell to 58.74 US dollars / barrel, down 1.0% or 0.61 US dollars from the previous trading day. According to the news, the latest estimate of the International Monetary Fund shows that the global economic growth rate is expected to drop to 3% this year. The drop in factory prices of Chinese industrial producers has also dampened the atmosphere in the international oil market. The cost support was weak, and the ethylene market fell. The price of downstream styrene continued to fall and the price of ethanol was consolidated, which could not support the price of ethylene, and had a downward trend.

3. Future forecast:

The International Monetary Fund warned that the trade war between the United States and China would reduce the global economic growth in 2019 to the lowest level since the financial crisis in 2008-2009, but the economy would rebound if the additional tariffs were removed. The next round of high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States will affect the supply and demand changes in the crude oil market to be further observed. The market is mainly guided by the news, so the data analysts of the business agency expect that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China in early October was 2466 yuan / ton, while on October 15, the average price of nitric acid in East China was 2100 yuan / ton, down 14.86%.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to decline. As of October 15, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2100 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with the pre holiday offer; Anhui Jinhe offered 2100 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton compared with the pre holiday offer; Shandong helitai offered 2100 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the pre holiday offer. Anhui Audley offered 1950 yuan / ton, 650 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offered 2200 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival. At present, the demand for nitric acid is not good, and the price of the negative manufacturers is constantly reduced.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, fell first and then rose slightly in Shandong after the festival according to the monitoring of the business association; the price of aniline and TDI, the downstream products, remained stable last week compared with that before the festival. The market price of aniline in Shandong is 7600 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is 7800 yuan / ton. The price trend of TDI in the East China market is up. On the 14th, the price of TDI in the East China market was 13100.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.29%.

III. future forecast

The demand of nitric acid market is light, and the nitric acid analyst of the business agency thinks that the nitric acid market may continue to decline.

On October 14, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 19.43% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 14th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Unit was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being, due to the introduction of new units in China. The market supply of xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia rose by 15 US dollars/ton on October 11. The closing price is 793-795 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 813-815 US dollars/ton CFR China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On October 11, WTI crude oil futures market rose to 54.70 US dollars / barrel, or 1.15 US dollars, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 60.51 US dollars / barrel, or 1.41 US dollars. According to OPEC’s October oil market report, the crude oil output of 14 OPEC countries in September was about 28.49 million barrels / day, down 1318 tons / day, mainly Saudi Arabia ala. Production declined in Burma and Iraq, but crude oil production increased in Angola and Congo. In September 2019, the proportion of OPEC crude oil in global output fell by 0.8% to 29.3% compared with last month. The rising price of crude oil has a cost-supporting effect on downstream petrochemical products, and the domestic price trend of paraxylene is stable. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA market start-up rate declined, PTA price trend shocks, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5100-5200 yuan/ton, as of 12 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 87.5%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, due to sufficient PTA supply, general trading atmosphere, mainly traders, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, by crude oil price shocks. The downstream PTA market price will remain low due to the turbulence. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain 6,800 yuan/ton in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6700 yuan/ton on October 08, and 6682.5 yuan/ton on October 12. The overall decline was 0.26%. This week, the PVC market fell slightly.

II. Market Analysis

Product aspect: PVC futures continued to decline in the first week after the return of National Day. V2001 futures opened low on November 11 and rebounded in the tail, shrinking and increasing warehouse receipts. PVC spot trend is general, the policy of environmental protection and production restriction has been lifted one after another, road transportation has been restored smoothly, while some enterprises have entered the inspection and repair, raw material inventory continues to be low, spot actual delivery is flat, the profit of manufacturers is obvious, some manufacturers’prices have been slightly reduced, and the market as a whole is stable and small. Downstream cautious wait and see, speculative take very few goods, generally on-demand procurement, trading volume has not been released, market turnover is weak. Traders are not in a good mood, actively delivering goods and shifting the focus of business. According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of October 12, Shandong Dongyue PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia Junzheng PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6450 yuan/ton, Sichuan Jinlu PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Shanxi Yushe PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6410 yuan/ton, Tianyuan Group PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6750 yuan/ton, Henan Aerospace PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6600 yuan/ton, and domestic PVC quoted 6600 yuan/ton. The main quotation range is 6400-6800 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Calcium Carbide factory prices in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This weekend, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2800-3000 yuan/ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2800-2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. After the adjustment in September, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably, the cost support is insufficient, and the price of calcium carbide will fluctuate and fall. The downstream products enterprises as a whole are still acceptable, but affected by the sentiment of buying up or not buying down, they lack the sense of stock-keeping. Most of them just need to replenish their warehouses, and their actual transactions are limited.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are two kinds of commodities in the 40 th week (10.7-10.11) of commodity price rising and falling list of rubber and plastic plate, the first two of which are natural rubber (1.03%) and PET (0.36%). There were 12 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, which accounted for 6.3% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines were cis-butadiene rubber (-5.23%), styrene-butadiene rubber (-4.13%) and EPS (-3.69%). Average gains and losses this week were -1.19%.

3. Future Market Forecast

PVC business analysts believe that the recent small fluctuations in the PVC trading market, demand side temporarily difficult to make a big improvement, is expected to consolidate the market in the short term.

On October 11, the fluorite commodity index was 100.58, which was the same as yesterday. It was 21.11% lower than the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and 104.39% higher than the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices fluctuated at a low level, with an average price of 2866.67 yuan/ton as of 11 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants started to operate normally, fluorite supply was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream maintained a low level in the near future. For the fluorite market, on-demand purchasing, the situation of fluorite on-site purchasing was poor, and the price of fluorite market was temporarily stable. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is sufficient, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in weak market prices. As of November 11, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan/ton. Fluorite price trend remained low.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is declining. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 9780 yuan/ton as of the 11th day. The lower market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises is 12,000-14,000 yuan per ton. The domestic market price trend of R134a maintained low. At present, the market of R134a has entered the off-season. The downstream demand is relatively weak. The start-up rate of many R134a manufacturers has maintained low. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, and the price affected by the fluorite market is at a low level.

Generally speaking, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is abundant, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may maintain a low trend.