On November 6, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On June 6, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer’s devices was stable, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturer was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer started construction limited, and the market price trend was temporarily stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and in Hebei Province is 2300-2500 yuan / ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, but the cost of raw materials is well supported, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1650 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton, the price trend is weak. The delivery of nitric acid is general. The low price of nitric acid has a negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The market of liquid ammonia in the upstream domestic market is volatile, and the trend of some enterprises in Shandong is stable, and the price in the northwest region is declining. At present, the local ammonia scale is normal, especially the supply of some manufacturers in Shandong is relatively tight, but the price of manufacturers with large ammonia is stable Mainly, the main quotation in Shandong Province is 3000-3200 yuan / ton, and the main quotation in Hebei Province is 2950-3100 yuan / ton. The rise of liquid ammonia market has a certain positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of the downstream civil explosive industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is generally stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that in the near future, the market price of upstream raw material nitric acid remains low, and the downstream demand is still low, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain stable in the later stage.

I. market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business association, on November 5, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province was 4783 yuan / ton, which was stable.

II. Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4650 yuan / ton, including tax. The quotation is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4700 yuan / ton, which is stable. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, and the ex factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 5000 yuan / ton, including tax; the manufacturer’s quotation is firm, and the downstream resin and pesticide demand is general.

Industrial chain: methanol in the upper reaches is mainly in weak operation since the beginning of November, and the methanol quotation was basically stable on November 5.

III. future forecast

The price of raw material methanol is weak. According to the analysis of POM in the business association, the price of POM may maintain stable operation.

On November 4, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on April 4, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On November 1, the closing price of PX market in Asia dropped by 4 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 765-767 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 785-787 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic PX plant needs to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price has a certain negative impact on domestic PX market price, but the price trend in domestic market is temporarily stable.

On November 1, WTI crude oil futures market rose to 56.20 US dollars / barrel, or 2.02 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 61.69 US dollars / barrel, or 2.07 US dollars. Oil production of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rebounded in October from an eight year low as Saudi Arabia recovered rapidly after its largest crude oil processing plant was attacked by drones According to Bloomberg News Agency’s survey of government officials, ship tracking data and estimates from consulting companies including lesta energy, JBC energy and petro logistics, the 14 member countries of OPEC produced an average of 29.7 million barrels of oil per day in October, an increase of 1.11 million barrels per day over September, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene was stable. In recent years, the textile industry has been in a volatile market, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average price of the offer in East China is around 4850-4950 yuan / ton. As of the first day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 85%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 87%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general trading atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by crude oil price The market price of PTA in the downstream is slightly lower due to the shock, and it is expected that the market price of PX will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

I. price trend

This week (10.28-11.1) the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 9781 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene price at the end of the week was 9123 yuan / ton, down 6.73% in the week, 21.12% month on month, 8.04% year-on-year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: this week (10.28-11.01), the domestic butadiene market continued to decline in weakness, the North spot supply is still abundant, the East China market atmosphere is affected by the low price news, and this week’s shipping has arrived in Hong Kong, the market supply continues to bear pressure, dragging the Northeast manufacturers’ export prices down. In the week, the periodic rigid demand in the lower reaches partially digested the inventory pressure of the northern manufacturers. At the same time, with the rapid and deep decline of butadiene, the production profit of the lower reaches industry increased, which attracted the attention of some businesses. However, the supply of goods in the Northeast continued to be released, and Sinopec’s supply price in November was also expected to be lowered. It was difficult for the short-term market fundamentals to have a significant positive support, and the market continued to be weak. As of Thursday (10.31), the delivery price of superior products in Shandong was 8450 yuan / ton, down 750 yuan / ton; the price in East China was 8900 yuan / ton, down 550 yuan / ton.

Enterprises: Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China continued to be reduced by 600 yuan / ton to 9900 yuan / ton; the base price of Liaotong chemical butadiene auction on Monday was stable at 8710 yuan / ton, with the supply flowing; the base price on Thursday (10.31) was reduced to 7910 yuan / ton, with the transaction price of 7920-8012 yuan / ton, with the transaction volume of 520 tons; Fushun Petrochemical butadiene sold 840 tons abroad in the week, with the transaction price of 7900-7950 as of 30 days RMB / T; the 50000t / a butadiene unit of Maoming Petrochemical first line was restarted on 27th, and now it is in normal operation.

Industrial chain: in terms of downstream synthetic rubber, styrene butadiene rubber. This week, the factory price of domestic mainstream sales companies of styrene butadiene rubber is stable. The main billing price of dry rubber 1502 is 10400 yuan / ton, and that of styrene butadiene rubber 1712 is 9500 yuan / ton. This week, the operation rate of domestic styrene butadiene plant is around 5.40%; the main domestic styrene butadiene rubber plants are in normal operation, while the Lanzhou styrene butadiene plant is slightly reduced, and the overall operation is slightly reduced; in addition, Fuxiang chemical, Hangzhou Yibang and Tianjin Lugang styrene butadiene rubber plants are all in continuous shutdown.

The effect of SBR on butadiene: the price of Butadiene on the outside is lower, the price of butadiene and styrene in China is lower, and the cost is negative. In addition, the supply side of the other main styrene butadiene units remained normal with little change. At present, the construction of tires is OK, but the actual purchase is rigid, and the follow-up demand is hard to be optimistic. The price difference between Shanghai Rubber and styrene butadiene is still there, with some support on the news side.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the factory price of domestic mainstream sales company gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell slightly; as of the receipt of the manuscript, the main factory price of domestic gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell to around 10900 yuan / ton, with the main stream falling by 200 yuan / ton (only PetroChina South China sales company has not followed the decline for the time being). This week, the operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was increased to around 5.80%, the load of the trans cis-1,4-polybutadiene plant was increased, the Lunde cis-1,4-polybutadiene plant was restarted successively, and other mainstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene plants kept normal operation.

The influence of cis-1,4-polybutadiene on butadiene: the price of raw material butadiene in the outer market fell, the North was abundant in spot goods, and the cost was negative. While the Rande Shunding unit has been restarted and the cost pressure has been reduced, the rest of the production units may be able to increase the load and the supply may be more relaxed; although the downstream tire factory is expected to start slightly higher, but the heating season is coming. Due to the environmental protection requirements, some of the northern product factories may be subject to the risk of temporary shutdown, and the demand is uncertain; Shanghai Rubber continues to shake and collate, and the information guidance is as follows: Limit.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, the lower price nodes in the North just need to make up their positions; the decline slowed down after the market fell deeply; the short-term profits in the lower reaches increased. On the negative side, the arrival increment of cargo in November, the low price of cargo in the distant months of the outer market, the abundant market supply, and the difficulty of sustainable and good support for rigid demand. With the rapid and deep decline of butadiene in October, merchants have obvious expectations for the slowdown of its later decline. In addition, the sharp decline of the market has boosted the short-term rising trend of downstream profits. However, at the beginning of November, it was heard that a large number of Iranian ships arrived at the port, and the spot supply in the north of China is still abundant. In addition, there is no lack of low-price news of foreign ships, so it is difficult for the market to have a significant positive support in the short term. Butadiene analysis by the business community We expect that the market will continue to decline slightly next week. We suggest that we pay attention to the internal and external market supply and the latest price guidance.

I. price trend

The price of pure benzene continued to fall this month, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On September 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5500-5900 yuan / ton, and on October 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 5000-5600 yuan / ton, down 6.12% from the end of last month. From October 8-11, 16-17, there was a significant decline, down 2.82% and 2.72% respectively, with a slight shock at the end of the month.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Crude oil: crude oil in this month ended lower in a wide range of shocks. WTI oil price fell 1.52% compared with last month, Brent oil price fell 2.1% compared with last month. Bad: trade risks, geopolitical situation, market concerns about slowing demand for crude oil. Good news: OPEC continues to insist on reducing production and making good progress in trade negotiations.

2. Products: at the beginning of this month, due to the national day, the production limit of environmental protection inspection was large, and the transportation during the National Day was limited, so pure benzene enterprises began to reduce the price for shipment. After the festival, the hydrogenated benzene plant was resumed and the supply increased; the coking industry continued to break through the new low, which had a great impact on the pure benzene.

3. Downstream: styrene, the downstream product with the largest demand for pure benzene, also fell continuously this month, down 11.92%. And the production limit before and after the National Day is large, after the festival, some downstream units are overhauled, and the pure benzene market is difficult to improve.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: in the later stage, the international oil price will still fluctuate and consolidate. Pay attention to OPEC production reduction, negotiation progress and various risk issues in the later stage.

2. Domestic and foreign markets: at present, the price of pure benzene in China is still higher than that in the outside market, and the negotiation atmosphere is soft. It is expected that the supply of pure benzene will continue to increase in the later period.

In general, it is expected that pure benzene will continue to decline.