On October 14, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 19.43% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 14th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Unit was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being, due to the introduction of new units in China. The market supply of xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia rose by 15 US dollars/ton on October 11. The closing price is 793-795 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 813-815 US dollars/ton CFR China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On October 11, WTI crude oil futures market rose to 54.70 US dollars / barrel, or 1.15 US dollars, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 60.51 US dollars / barrel, or 1.41 US dollars. According to OPEC’s October oil market report, the crude oil output of 14 OPEC countries in September was about 28.49 million barrels / day, down 1318 tons / day, mainly Saudi Arabia ala. Production declined in Burma and Iraq, but crude oil production increased in Angola and Congo. In September 2019, the proportion of OPEC crude oil in global output fell by 0.8% to 29.3% compared with last month. The rising price of crude oil has a cost-supporting effect on downstream petrochemical products, and the domestic price trend of paraxylene is stable. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA market start-up rate declined, PTA price trend shocks, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5100-5200 yuan/ton, as of 12 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 87.5%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, due to sufficient PTA supply, general trading atmosphere, mainly traders, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, by crude oil price shocks. The downstream PTA market price will remain low due to the turbulence. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain 6,800 yuan/ton in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6700 yuan/ton on October 08, and 6682.5 yuan/ton on October 12. The overall decline was 0.26%. This week, the PVC market fell slightly.

II. Market Analysis

Product aspect: PVC futures continued to decline in the first week after the return of National Day. V2001 futures opened low on November 11 and rebounded in the tail, shrinking and increasing warehouse receipts. PVC spot trend is general, the policy of environmental protection and production restriction has been lifted one after another, road transportation has been restored smoothly, while some enterprises have entered the inspection and repair, raw material inventory continues to be low, spot actual delivery is flat, the profit of manufacturers is obvious, some manufacturers’prices have been slightly reduced, and the market as a whole is stable and small. Downstream cautious wait and see, speculative take very few goods, generally on-demand procurement, trading volume has not been released, market turnover is weak. Traders are not in a good mood, actively delivering goods and shifting the focus of business. According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of October 12, Shandong Dongyue PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia Junzheng PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6450 yuan/ton, Sichuan Jinlu PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Shanxi Yushe PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6410 yuan/ton, Tianyuan Group PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6750 yuan/ton, Henan Aerospace PVC (SG5 with calcium carbide method) quoted 6600 yuan/ton, and domestic PVC quoted 6600 yuan/ton. The main quotation range is 6400-6800 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Calcium Carbide factory prices in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This weekend, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2800-3000 yuan/ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2800-2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. After the adjustment in September, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably, the cost support is insufficient, and the price of calcium carbide will fluctuate and fall. The downstream products enterprises as a whole are still acceptable, but affected by the sentiment of buying up or not buying down, they lack the sense of stock-keeping. Most of them just need to replenish their warehouses, and their actual transactions are limited.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are two kinds of commodities in the 40 th week (10.7-10.11) of commodity price rising and falling list of rubber and plastic plate, the first two of which are natural rubber (1.03%) and PET (0.36%). There were 12 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, which accounted for 6.3% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines were cis-butadiene rubber (-5.23%), styrene-butadiene rubber (-4.13%) and EPS (-3.69%). Average gains and losses this week were -1.19%.

3. Future Market Forecast

PVC business analysts believe that the recent small fluctuations in the PVC trading market, demand side temporarily difficult to make a big improvement, is expected to consolidate the market in the short term.

On October 11, the fluorite commodity index was 100.58, which was the same as yesterday. It was 21.11% lower than the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and 104.39% higher than the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices fluctuated at a low level, with an average price of 2866.67 yuan/ton as of 11 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants started to operate normally, fluorite supply was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream maintained a low level in the near future. For the fluorite market, on-demand purchasing, the situation of fluorite on-site purchasing was poor, and the price of fluorite market was temporarily stable. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is sufficient, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in weak market prices. As of November 11, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan/ton. Fluorite price trend remained low.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is declining. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 9780 yuan/ton as of the 11th day. The lower market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises is 12,000-14,000 yuan per ton. The domestic market price trend of R134a maintained low. At present, the market of R134a has entered the off-season. The downstream demand is relatively weak. The start-up rate of many R134a manufacturers has maintained low. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, and the price affected by the fluorite market is at a low level.

Generally speaking, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is abundant, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may maintain a low trend.

On October 9, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 67.15, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 44.10% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 38.68% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has declined, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, the inventory pressure of factories has increased, high-end transactions have been blocked, recent inventories of factories have increased, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-method supply negotiations is 6800-7100 yuan/ton, naphthalene-method supply negotiations is 6200-6500 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6700-6900 yuan/ton, most manufacturers in the field price callback, downstream start-up is not high, on-demand procurement is dominant, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant runs steadily, phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient, and phthalic anhydride downstream demand Unfortunately, demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

Recently, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6,900 yuan/ton. As a result of the restart of repair facilities of some domestic o-phthalic manufacturers, the supply of goods in the field has increased, the import market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has declined, the quotation has fallen, the recent market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port has declined, the stock of the port is low, the quotation of o-ph Affected by the drop in the price of phthalic anhydride, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. Downstream DOP prices slightly fell, isooctanol prices fell, DOP costs fell. DOP price declined, DOP downstream demand was normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, downstream PVC market shocks declined, DOP high-end transactions were blocked, DOP market mainstream transaction price 7600-8000 yuan/ton, downstream price trend shocks, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to fall slightly later.

Price trends:

After the stabilization of the crude benzol Market in September 2019, the ex-factory price in North China increased by 14.42% at the beginning of the month at 3930 yuan/ton and at the end of the month at 4496.67 yuan/ton.

The crude benzol commodity index on September 30 was 70.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.59% from the cyclical peak of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and up 79.41% from the lowest point of 39.25 on December 22, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: The crude benzol Market rose 14.42% monthly after this month’s turbulence. At the end of the month, the price entered a downward trend. Since mid-September, the crude benzol Market has continued to rise. During the Mid-Autumn holidays, most of the downstream products began to stock up in advance. At the same time, the external market of pure benzol continued to rise. The listed price of pure benzol of Sinopec increased 200 yuan/ton to 5750 yuan/ton again. The market sentiment was rising and the main production area tendered. Prices have risen sharply, and it is difficult to find downstream hydrobenzene from low-level sources. The manufacturers’offer has risen by 150-200 yuan/ton compared with last week. The overall start-up rate of the plant this week is about 50%. The price difference between crude benzene and hydrobenzene was reduced. The profit is reduced, so the manufacturer’s willingness to ship is low. Downstream styrene, phenol and other devices started higher, stock sentiment is strong, and then entered the consolidation of the shock channel, prices slightly declined at the end of the month, mainly affected by traffic, environmental protection and other factors during the National Day. At the end of the month, the crude benzol price in Shanxi is about 4325 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong is about 4575 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: On September 14, Saudi Arabia’s largest crude oil facility was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles, resulting in more than 5 million barrels per day production suspension, Saudi oil output and exports were greatly affected, international oil prices jumped, rising by more than 10%. Pure benzene rose sharply from 16 to 18 days as international oil prices soared and commodity markets improved. This month, WTI oil prices rose by 1.64% compared with last month, while Brent oil prices rose by 5.75%. Pure benzene: At the beginning of the month, due to the lower inventory of pure benzene in East China, the market supply is on the low side, and the price of pure benzene has an obvious rise. Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident on the 16th, crude oil and pure benzene external market soared, driving the domestic market of pure benzene upward. This month, the total spot of pure benzene is on the low side, and the port inventory keeps falling, which supports the high price of pure benzene. At the end of the month, the impact of the Saudi Arabian incident subsided, the crude oil outer disk declined, the price gap between domestic and foreign decreased, and the high price support of pure benzene weakened. In addition, near 11, downstream environmental protection inspection, parking restrictions in some factories, pure benzene just needed insufficient, the market fell.

3. Trend forecast:

Previous crude benzene prices rose sharply, hydrogenated benzene pressure is strong, with the environmental upgrade of hydrogenated benzene business overhaul increased, the demand for crude benzene decreased, the lack of downstream support, crude benzene prices after the festival have room to fall.