I. price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the overall market price of epichlorohydrin has declined in recent days. As of 19, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14233.33 yuan / ton, down 24.29% compared with November 1. In a three-month cycle, it rose 5.69% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market fell recently. Due to the impact of the new device being put into operation, the wait-and-see mood on the site has increased, the market transaction atmosphere is weak, the user’s enthusiasm for purchasing high-priced raw materials is low, more traders reduce their prices, and the negotiation focus tends to be low-end. At present, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China is about 13000-14500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market of propylene in Shandong continued to decline on the 19th. At present, the market turnover is still around 7120-7450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7200 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of goods in Northeast China has been reduced, but some powder manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, and the demand has also been reduced. The crude oil and PP market is generally, and it is expected that the market price of propylene will still decline in recent days. Downstream epoxy resin weak operation, trading atmosphere light.

3. Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, the price of raw propylene is weak, the cost support of epichlorohydrin is weak, the downstream epoxy resin is weak, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is not reduced. At present, there is no obvious positive factor in the market, and the epichlorohydrin is not strong enough. It is expected that epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by weak shocks in the short term, and it is still necessary to focus on the information guidance of unit start-up

On November 19, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On September 19, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices was stable, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers was general, the downstream purchase was on demand, coupled with the impact of environmental control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still had more production stops, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started limited, and the market price trend was temporarily stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and in Hebei Province is 2300-2500 yuan / ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, but the cost of raw materials is well supported, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1600 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton, the price trend is weak. The delivery of nitric acid is general. The low price of nitric acid has a negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable for the time being. The market of liquid ammonia in the upstream domestic market remains low, the trend of some enterprises in Shandong Province is stable for the time being, and the price in the northwest region remains low. At present, the local ammonia quantity is normal, especially the supply of some manufacturers in Shandong Province is relatively sufficient, and the main quotation in Shandong Province is 2800 -3000 yuan / ton, Hebei mainstream quotation in 2750-2900 yuan / ton, low liquid ammonia Market for the downstream ammonium nitrate Market has a certain negative impact, the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of the downstream civil explosive industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is generally stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that in the near future, the market price of upstream raw material nitric acid remains low, and the downstream demand is still low, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain stable in the later stage.

I. price trend:

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the domestic PA6 market continued to be weak in November, with some brand quotations falling. Up to now, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 12933.33 yuan / ton, down 4.20% from the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

The domestic spot price of caprolactam upstream of PA6 was affected by the fall in the price of raw material pure benzene in October, which was sharply reduced by nearly 6.61% last month. At present, the port inventory of pure benzene remains at a low level, and the external market continues to rise and boost. It is difficult to find a low-cost source of goods in the downstream. The long-term cargo negotiation is 5250-5300 yuan / ton, and the short-term market is strong. Caprolactam US dollar market is weak, businesses offer lower, the downstream factory inquiry atmosphere is light, on-site actual single deal is not much. The focus of market negotiation tends to be low-end. Downstream buyers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, the market trading atmosphere is light; upstream caprolactam continues to weaken, weakening the support for PA6. At present, the improvement of market demand for PA6 is limited, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not good, on-site trading is blocked, and the center of gravity of factory traders’ offer is lowered. However, due to the recent environmental protection policy, the operating rate of more than 40 urban areas such as the Yangtze River Delta has declined, and the polymerization plant has been shut down for rectification in the fourth quarter, so PA6 inventory will be consumed. PA6 offer trend is not good in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to cost and environmental protection policies.

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in mid November, the domestic PA6 market continued to adjust the weak market, and the spot price fell. The trend of caprolactam in the upstream is not good, and the support for PA6 cost end is not good. The downstream replenishment operation is cautious, with rigid demand as the main factor. PA6 is expected to remain weak in the near future.

Commodity index: on November 15, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 98.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.18% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 2.77% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on November 1, the main quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 16166.67 yuan / ton, and on November 15, the main quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 16100 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.41%.

Industry chain: upstream: in November, the mainstream price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market continued to decline, with the price of 12500 yuan / ton on the first day, 10550 yuan / ton on the seventh day, 100 yuan / ton on the 14th day, 10450 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton in the first half of the month, down 4.5%; downstream: demand is still stable. Manufacturer: the factory in Henan main production area started normal this month, with stable supply of goods. Upstream costs continue to be reduced, and manufacturers’ procurement costs continue to be reduced.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. From May, October and November to now, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal; the environmental protection inspection is strict, there are occasional stoppages, the output is not affected, and the market mainstream quotation is slightly down, with little impact.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, from November to now, the North has gradually entered the warm season. The environmental protection inspection is strict, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal, the supply of goods is stable, and the downstream demand is still stable. As the upstream raw material, the price of acrylonitrile is adjusted to 4.5%, and the market price of polyacrylamide is slightly reduced, but the range is not large. If there is no unexpected situation in the future market, it should be mainly stable, but it will slightly decline in stability.

On November 14, the fluorite commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.80% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 105.18% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is stable temporarily. As of the 14th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2877.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has been kept low in the near future. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the stock situation in the fluorite field is general, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in weak market price. As of the 14th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite remained low.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remains low. As of the 14th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 9600 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is generally, the demand for fluorite is weakened, and the price of fluorite remains low and volatile. In the near future, the transaction market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is general, and the domestic refrigerant R22 market is volatile. From the perspective of market supply, the market of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the supply capacity of the market source has declined, and the inventory pressure has been buffered. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers only reduced the demand without increasing, and the price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-13000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains low. At present, R134a market has entered the off-season, downstream demand is relatively weak, and the operating rate of several R134a production enterprises remains low. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the affected price of fluorite market is at a low level.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry is low and the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor. However, as the temperature drops, the supply of fluorite in the North may decrease. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may maintain a low trend.