On October 27, the rare earth index was 345, unchanged from yesterday, 65.50% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 27.31% higher than the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 370500 yuan / ton, 20000 yuan / ton to 2055000 yuan / ton and 660000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 290500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1595000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 355000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 292500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 370500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1595000 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the market price trend of rare earth has continued to decline. The domestic rare earth market is generally trading. Due to the increase of Myanmar’s supply, the prices of dysprosium, terbium and oxide have been falling continuously, and the prices of heavy rare earth have continued to fall. In the near future, the inquiry list of praseodymium neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide has declined, and the price of light rare earth oxide has declined slightly. In the near future, the light rare earth merchants in the field are not in good condition, and the recent trading situation in the field is general. The supply of rare earth in China is normal. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the environmental protection supervision in the whole country. The production of rare earth is special, especially the radiation hazards of some products make the environmental protection supervision more strict. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are weak in purchasing after and before the festival due to the surplus of purchasing before the festival. In addition, the price of rare earth has declined compared with the previous period, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market supply of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, which are in normal supply, and the market price trend of rare earth is declining. In the near future There is a strong wait-and-see mood among large enterprise groups in the market. The rare earth market is generally trading, and the trading volume is at a low level.

In the near future, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts to inspect the rare earth industry. Jiangxi Province has strengthened the supervision of the rare earth industry, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, the supervision group of the State Council went to Jiangxi Province to supervise rare earth enterprises. This supervision focused on the major deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, highlighted the key and difficult issues in the field of economic operation and reform and development, focused on the strong blocking points and pain points reflected by the people and market subjects, and promoted the implementation of various work. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have taken effective measures to rectify and standardize the industry, innovated and improved the relevant management mechanism, accelerated the construction of an industry development pattern with reasonable industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective resource protection and orderly production and operation, effectively utilized the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource, and the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk. , people in the domestic arena are waiting for the specific good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts of the business society expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, and the domestic order of rare earth industry will be rectified, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will maintain a low level, but the downstream demand for rare earth will not improve in the near future, and the supply of heavy rare earth import will increase, and the rare earth market is expected to continue to decline.

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average spot price of domestic gold on the 25th was 342.86 yuan / g, an increase of 0.64% compared with the spot price of gold on the 24th, 347.60 yuan / g, a decrease of 1.36% compared with the monthly peak (October 9), and 284.10 yuan / g, an increase of 20.68% compared with the spot price at the beginning of the year (01.01).

The spot price of domestic silver on October 25 was 4308.33 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.87% compared with the spot price of silver on October 24, 4364.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.29% compared with the monthly peak (October 9), and 3617.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 19.09% compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01).

Main favorable factors

1. Impact of brexit news

British Prime Minister Gordon Johnson said Thursday that he would restart the legislative process of the suspended brexit agreement if the lower house of parliament agreed to hold an early election on December 12.

2. Interest rate cut and loose policy expectation of central banks

(1) recently ECB President Draghi released a dovey tone yesterday, emphasizing the risk of economic downturn.

(2) the recently released US economic data is weak. The market expects that the possibility of another interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting ending on October 30 will increase, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the third time this year.

On October 24, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On the 24th, the price trend of ammonium nitrate in the domestic market was temporarily stable, the operation of the devices of the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was stable, the delivery market of the ammonium nitrate manufacturers was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by the environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started construction limited, and the market price trend was temporarily stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and in Hebei Province is 2300-2500 yuan / ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, but the cost of raw materials is well supported, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to decline, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1650 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton or so, and the price trend declines. The delivery of nitric acid is general. The fall of nitric acid price has a certain negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The market of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream mainly fluctuates at a low level, and some enterprises in Shandong maintain stability, while the price in the northwest remains stable. At present, the local ammonia quantity is surplus, especially some manufacturers in Shandong have loose supply and enterprises. The shipping pressure of the industry is increasing, but the price of manufacturers with large ammonia volume is mainly stable. The main quotation in Shandong Province is 2900-3000 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei Province is 2850-3000 yuan / ton. The lower liquid ammonia market has a certain negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of the downstream civil explosive industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is generally stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that the market price of upstream raw material nitric acid continues to decline in the near future, and the downstream demand is still at a low level, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will fall slightly in the later stage.

On October 22, the HFA commodity index was 88.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.80% from 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.61% from 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has declined slightly. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9680 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises report that there is sufficient stock supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field at present. In the near future, the hydrofluoric acid field can’t move goods. Because the downstream demand hasn’t improved, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers’ prices are stuck, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly gone. Low. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid keeps a low level, and the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower.

The price of fluorite in the upstream market remained at a low level. As of the 23rd, the price of fluorite was 2877.78 yuan / ton. The fluctuation of upstream raw material price brought limited support to the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market was slightly lower due to the low price of raw material fluorite. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market is general, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 remains low. From the perspective of market supply, the market price of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers only reduced the demand without increasing, and the mainstream price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-13000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is at a low level, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level, the market demand for refrigerants is reduced, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market declines. However, the transaction price in the market is low, and businesses purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

The transaction situation in the refrigerant market is poor, the unit operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low, the demand for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market is limited, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, but the manufacturer reflects that the loss is relatively serious, and Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may maintain a low level.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business club, the price of PC market is weak and down today. As of October 21, the self raised price in East China market is 15200-17800 yuan / ton, and that in South China is 14200-16700 yuan / ton.

II. Cause analysis

On October 21, the domestic PC market was weak and waiting for operation, the downstream demand was not enough to follow up, there was no obvious positive support in the field, and the industry was cautious to accompany the shipment. At present, the PC market price has basically fallen back to the level before the price rise last month, and is close to the cost line of some domestic manufacturers, so the local wait-and-see atmosphere has increased significantly, but under the background of intensified contradiction between the supply and demand sides, it is expected that the domestic PC market will maintain a slow downward trend in the near future. Today, the self raised price in East China market is 15200-17800 yuan / ton, and the self raised price in South China is 14200-16700 yuan / ton.

On October 21, the energy index was 789, down 3 points from yesterday, 24.35% from 1043 (2012-03-29), the highest point in the cycle, and 54.40% from 511, the lowest point on March 01, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

III. future forecast

PC analysts of business club think: it is expected that the domestic PC market will maintain a slow downward trend in the near future, and pay attention to the further operation trend of manufacturers.