I. price trend

The ex factory price is 7600 yuan / ton in East China, 7800 yuan / ton in Central China, South China and North China, and 7900 yuan / ton in Northeast China.

 
II. Industrial chain:

This month, a set of units in North China and East China were overhauled, and the market resources gradually contracted, and the overall market of ethylene oxide was relatively stable. After finishing the upstream ethylene horizontal plate, the downstream ethylene glycol was slightly affected by the port inventory, while the inventory of the downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducing agent monomer enterprises was low, and the market trading was positive due to the impact of the North rush, and the price also rose slightly. However, affected by the season, the overall sales volume of water reducing agent in the North decreased, and some products were sold to the south. When the demand gradually weakened, the overall market may show an adjustment trend.

III. prediction:

The short-term stability requires close attention to the ethylene price and monomer production and marketing trends.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 3, the latest price of cyclohexanone in China was 7183 yuan / ton, down 9.07% month on month and 35.29% year on year. The domestic market of cyclohexanone was weak and down.

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers. The shipping level of enterprises is around 7200-7400 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The South China cyclohexanone market has been reorganized and operated. The negotiation is based on 7800-7900 yuan / ton delivery. The main trading intention is at the low end or below. The low price of the enterprise has a great restriction on the market rebound, and the supply side is general. The market of cyclohexanone in East China has been reorganized and operated, and the reference for in-house negotiation is 7700-7800 yuan / ton. The upstream pure benzene operation has been supported to some extent, but the downstream is weak as a whole, the market has been reorganized for a short time, and the rebound power is limited.

Industrial chain: pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in February, the intention of goods sales is 662-663 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea, and in January, the intention of goods buyers is 667 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: East China’s pure benzene market remains firm, and the negotiation of import market goes up. Domestic trade negotiation references 5400-5450 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of far month goods is 5200-5350 yuan / ton. There is an increase in on-site wait-and-see, but the increase in external sales does not produce an effective boost, and the downstream weak support is insufficient.

Caprolactam: the weak market of US $caprolactam was sorted out, the offer of merchants was stable, the inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories was light, there were not many actual orders in the market, and the mainstream transaction negotiation reference in the market was 1190-1210 US dollars / ton. The caprolactam liquid market maintained consolidation, and the main real single negotiated price in East China market was 10600-10700 yuan / ton (6 months’ acceptance delivery), stable. Caprolactam merchants offer to maintain stability, the focus of market negotiations is not volatile. Downstream buyers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, there is a certain interest in low price replenishment; the trend of pure benzene has a certain support. On the negative side, the demand for solvent is insufficient; the price of enterprise is low. The upstream shocks remain firm, but the downstream is generally weak, the solvent market demand is limited, and the enterprise price is low. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business society expect that the domestic market for cyclohexanone will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of December 2, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12775 yuan / ton, with the price rising 2.00% month on month and 4.07% year on year. The overall market is relatively strong.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong. North China and East China Wanhua cargo Negotiation: 12900-13000 yuan / ton; Shanghai cargo Negotiation: 12600-12700 yuan / ton; South China Wanhua cargo Negotiation: 12900 yuan / ton; Shanghai cargo Negotiation: 12500-12600 yuan / ton. At present, the spot market is tightening, the operators are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the factory price is stable, so the operators have enough confidence in the future market.

In terms of market, the aggregate MDI market in North China and Shandong moved up and steady. The spot market is tightening, the operators are reluctant to sell at low prices, the downstream just need to follow up is limited, and the market high-level trading is not smooth. East China aggregate MDI market moved up in stability. Wanhua new moon news came out, the market is waiting for more news from other enterprises, but due to the tight spot, the operators are reluctant to sell at low prices, the downstream market is cautious, and the market is short of trading volume. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. There is no obvious change in the market fundamentals. The market is more cautious to wait for the price and quantity news of other enterprises. The industry is steadfast to discuss the shipment and the downstream is cautious to receive the offer.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene Market in Asia: in January, the sales volume was 660 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: the pure benzene Market in East China maintains a firm operation. The negotiation reference is 5400-5450 yuan / ton, the high selling price is insisted, and the far monthly negotiation is 5200-5300 yuan / ton. Part of the purchase is waiting and waiting, responding to the lack of high-end products, and the enthusiasm for goods preparation is limited.

Aniline: aniline factory has a high inventory, and the terminal factory is competitive to promote shipment. Raw materials pure benzene high price, may rise, the cost side has good support. The price is expected to be stable, with reference to 6800-6900 yuan / ton for East China and 6640 yuan / ton for North China.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the price of dry process aluminum fluoride in China fell slightly in November, with the average market price of 9600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9166 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 4.51%.

II. Market analysis

In November, the price of aluminum fluoride continued to decline, and some aluminum fluoride manufacturers lowered the factory price: at present, the price of aluminum fluoride in Henan is 8600-9300 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 8500-9300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 9500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10200 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the upper reaches has increased. As of the end of the month, the ex factory price of hydrofluoric acid is 9970 yuan / ton, and the overall increase of hydrofluoric acid in November is 3.42%. At present, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high, and the supply capacity of the market sources has declined. The downstream air-conditioning manufacturers maintain, and the demand changes little, but the supply is tight. The mainstream price of large domestic enterprises has risen to 13500-14500 Yuan / ton. In the first half of November, the price of aluminum fluoride was reduced as a whole. In the second half of November, only the factory price of each aluminum fluoride manufacturer was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. The market price of aluminum fluoride in the downstream did not rise with the price of hydrofluoric acid in the upstream. In November, the price of aluminum fluoride fell first and then stabilized.

III. future forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society think that: the price of upstream raw materials hydrofluoric acid has stopped falling and turned up, and the market price of aluminum fluoride has also stopped falling. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will maintain stable operation in December.

I. price trend

Yellow phosphorus prices fell in November, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 19166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 18800 yuan / ton.

On November 27, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 118.99, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.27% from 161.39 (2019-07-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.24% from 89.98, the lowest point on September 5, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: in November, the price of yellow phosphorus showed a downward trend. On 18th, due to the one week environmental protection inspection conducted by Yunnan Guichuan, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced and the price was slightly increased. As of the 28th day, the average price was about 18800 yuan / ton. On the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus has not changed much. The price has declined slightly, but the price is still high. According to the inspection by the central environmental protection group of Yunnan Province, the enterprises in Yunnan Province started to decline, and the market supply was tight. Some enterprises mainly supply early orders, and the quotation for foreign reports was suspended. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 18800-19000 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-19000 yuan / ton. The overall market is short of spot goods, most traders are mainly wait-and-see, they are more cautious in taking goods, the market demand is relatively light, downstream users take them as they use them, and the current high price of yellow phosphorus is mainly consolidated.

Industry chain: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic coke market mentality has recovered recently, but the market as a whole remains stable. The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market of Sichuan Province is 1980 yuan / ton, and that in Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou Province is 2220 yuan / ton. This month, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to run in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some regions were slightly adjusted. Prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other regions remained at a high level. Prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang region were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and prices remained stable in the past two weeks. The average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is 416.67 yuan / ton. The downstream phosphoric acid and phosphate enterprises stop more, the market fluctuation is not obvious, the user’s replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and the market trading is light. There is a strong wait-and-see mood among enterprises. In the short term, the market price of phosphoric acid is mainly based on price structure, and the mainstream price is 5100-5600 yuan / ton.

On November 27, the yellow phosphorus industry chain index was 105.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.35% from 124.27 (2019-07-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.00% from 79.69, the lowest point on October 7, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

III. future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business cooperation, this month’s yellow phosphorus enterprises are limited in driving, the overall market of yellow phosphorus is light in trading and investment, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Who will take it with you? Most traders are mainly wait-and-see. They are more cautious in taking the goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the high price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated.