1、 Price data

 

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries fell slightly. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 1724.00 yuan / ton, while the average price of petroleum coke market at the weekend was 1685.25 yuan / ton, down 2.25%, up 61.97% year on year. On January 29, the petroleum coke commodity index was 131.08, down 3.01 points from yesterday, down 15.75% from 155.59 points (January 25, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 95.96% from 66.89 points, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 30, 2012 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This week, the price of local refined petroleum coke was basically stable, and the price of some refineries fluctuated. The price of low sulfur coke kept stable. The price of medium and high sulfur coke was stable in the middle and lower reaches. At the end of the month, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and the refinery made profits to ship.

 

Upstream: U.S. crude oil stocks are declining, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and the global epidemic is still serious. The market is more concerned about the delay of vaccination and new travel restrictions that may depress demand. This week, WTI crude oil prices rose 0.13% and Brent crude oil prices fell 0.56%.

 

Downstream: affected by the downturn of downstream demand, the carbon market is weak; the price of downstream electrolytic aluminum is weak and volatile; the silicon metal market is stable.

 

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the 4th week of 2021 (1.25-1.29), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase are liquefied natural gas (11.38%), coke (3.91%) and liquefied gas (2.06%). There were 9 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products with a decline were steam coal (- 12.77%), dimethyl ether (- 2.30%) and petroleum coke (- 2.25%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.19%.

 

Business community petroleum coke analysts believe that: at present, terminal demand is temporarily stable, calcined coke shipment is good, and it is expected that petroleum coke will be stable in the short term.

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Magnesium market trend

 

On January 29, 2021, the price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in domestic main production areas stabilized in cash including tax, with an overall range of 14100-14400 yuan / ton, mainly through actual single negotiation.

 

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

 

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 14100-14400 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, the spot exchange is 14300-14400 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, the spot exchange is 14400-14500 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, the spot exchange is 14100-14300 yuan / ton.

 

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

 

According to the data of business news agency, the monthly decline of magnesium ingot in January 2021 was 7.74%, which was mainly reflected in the middle and early ten days, and the magnesium ingot stabilized and slightly recovered in the later period.

 

It is reported that at present, the mainstream manufacturers mainly sell orders in advance, and most of them are “futures like” products that will be picked up after the year. The delivery date is delayed. On the one hand, the transportation is affected by the approaching Spring Festival; on the other hand, the downstream manufacturers mainly prepare goods in the early stage, and plan to purchase just in time.

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1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Take the sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide with large volume in domestic market as an example. According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of titanium dioxide rose this month. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 16666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 17133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price rose by 2.8% in the month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The market price of titanium dioxide rose this month. Since the end of December, nearly 20 manufacturers, including longmang Baili, CITIC titanium, anada and haifengxin of Panzhihua, have announced increases successively, with an increase of 500-1000 yuan / ton, and the vast majority of them are 500 yuan / ton. Foreign trade export market orders good, raw material titanium concentrate prices slightly higher. Today, January 28, Panzhihua tihai technology once again announced that the domestic trade price of rutile titanium dioxide increased by 1000 yuan / ton, and the foreign trade price increased by 150 US dollars / ton. At present, the market price of titanium dioxide is flexible, and the current market is stabilized by “price rising with stability”. The overall market confidence is good. The price of domestic rutile titanium dioxide with tax is 16800-18000 yuan / ton, and that of anatase titanium dioxide with tax is 13500-16000 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of raw materials, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi increased slightly this week. Titanium concentrate supply side as a whole tight, recently trading market inquiries have increased, the latest single price gradually higher. Up to now, the price of 46,10 titanium ore from small and medium-sized manufacturers is 1950-1980 yuan / ton; the price of 47,20 titanium ore is about 2100 yuan / ton, and the price of 38,42 titanium ore without tax is 1330-1350 yuan / ton. In the short term, the price of titanium concentrate will continue to run at a high level, which is a single discussion.

 

According to the latest statistics of titanium dioxide sub center of Chemical Industry Productivity Promotion Center and titanium dioxide industry technology innovation strategic alliance Secretariat, in 2020, the comprehensive output of all kinds of titanium dioxide and related products of all 42 full process titanium dioxide production enterprises in China will be 3.512 million tons, an increase of 330000 tons or 10.39% over the previous year.

 

According to the statistics provided by the General Administration of customs, the cumulative export of titanium dioxide from January to December 2020 was about 1214800 tons, an increase of 2113000 tons over the whole year of 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 21.06%. The cumulative import volume of titanium dioxide from January to December 2020 is about 172400 tons, which is about 4784 tons more than that of 2019, with a year-on-year growth of 2.85%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Titanium dioxide analysts of business news agency think: at present, the export situation of titanium dioxide enterprises is good, and the main domestic suppliers are still in short supply. The price of raw material titanium ore is high, the cost support is strong, and the market confidence of titanium dioxide is good. It is expected that in the short term, the titanium dioxide market will mainly run at a high level, and the actual transaction will be discussed in a single way.

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Zinc price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fell sharply on the 27th, and the zinc market fell back. On January 27, the average price of zinc was 20136.67 yuan / ton, and the price of zinc fell 550 yuan / ton, or 2.63%.

 

Zinc inventory in London LME Market

 

According to the London LME market zinc inventory data, on January 26, the London LME market zinc ingot inventory was 235025 tons, an increase of 45250 tons, accounting for an increase of 23.84%. Among them, 214750 tons of registered warehouse receipts increased by 27.03%, 20275 tons of cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 2.17%. LME zinc market warehouse receipts surge, global zinc market supply is sufficient, zinc market drop pressure increases, drag down zinc prices.

 

Analysis summary and Prospect

 

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, believes that: with the alleviation of the epidemic and the continuous promotion of vaccines, global mines have resumed operation one after another, the supply of zinc market has increased, the inventory of zinc in LME market has increased sharply, the global supply of zinc market is sufficient, and the oversupply of zinc market has intensified. Correspondingly, with the arrival of the domestic Spring Festival, a number of zinc downstream manufacturers stop production and overhaul plans have come out, which has dragged down the recovery of domestic zinc prices, Domestic zinc prices plummeted. In the long run, the zinc market is still supported by rising power, but before the Spring Festival, the demand of domestic zinc market is weak, the rising power of zinc price is insufficient, and zinc price is vulnerable to adjustment. Zinc market may usher in a short-term rising period after the festival.

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Zinc price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fluctuated and fell in January, and the price of zinc market fluctuated and fell. As of January 26, the average price of zinc was 20680.00 yuan / ton, down 3.02% from 21323.33 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the month.

 

Domestic zinc production

 

Date: output of current month (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons) year on year growth (%) cumulative growth (%)

December 2020 – 60.2 642.5 – 1.5 642.7

November 2020: 58-582.1 – 0.7-3.1

October 2020 – 58.6 – 524.2 – 9.3 – 3

September 2020: 56.5-465.6-2.9-2.1

August 2020 – 53.9 – 410.9 – 5.1 – 4.3

July 2020 – 52.4 – 356.9 – 0.2 – 4.6

June 2020: 52-304.8-1.2-7.7

May 2020: 51.4 252.7 4.5 9.1

April 2020: 51.7 201.3 7.3 10.7

March 2020: 48.9 149.5 4.7 11

February 2020 — 104 — 12.9

December 2019 – 60.7 – 623.6 – 19.5 – 9.2

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2020, the domestic zinc ingot output was 602000 tons, and that month’s zinc ingot output decreased by 1.5% on a year-on-year basis. The reduction of zinc supply in the zinc market has a certain positive stimulating effect on the zinc price, but the weak demand in the zinc market makes the rising power of the zinc market limited. In addition, the output of zinc market increased in the whole year, the supply of zinc market still exceeded the demand, and the rising power of zinc market was insufficient.

 

Summary of domestic infrastructure market

 

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to December 2020, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries) increased by 0.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point from January to November. Among them, the investment in railway transportation industry decreased by 2.2%, with an increase of 2.0% from January to November; the investment in road transportation industry increased by 1.8%, with a growth rate of 0.4 percentage point. Domestic zinc market demand has increased, but the growth is limited, and the overall growth rate has dropped. The overall zinc market demand fell, zinc market downward pressure increased. The demand for zinc from photovoltaic and wind power is obviously stimulated. The sales data of automobiles and household appliances are good. The demand toughness of zinc market maintains. With the approach of Spring Festival, zinc plating, alloy and other enterprises successively announce holiday plans. The domestic demand for zinc downstream is expected to weaken. The short-term demand of zinc market is weak, and the situation of zinc market is declining.

 

Analysis summary and Prospect

 

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, believes that: Recently, the supply and demand of zinc market are weak, and the rising power of zinc market is insufficient, and the downward pressure is increasing. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, with an average of about 3950 yuan / ton, and the zinc concentrate processing and smelting enterprises were lack of enthusiasm to start, and some enterprises announced the shutdown and maintenance plan due to the tight supply of zinc concentrate, which affected the supply of zinc city and reduced the supply of zinc City in the future; in terms of demand, the overall demand of zinc city maintained but the growth was insufficient, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the demand of zinc City dropped sharply, and the demand of zinc city was weak Maintain. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of zinc market decreased, but the overall supply of zinc market exceeded the demand, the rising power of zinc market weakened, and the downward pressure increased. It is expected that the short-term zinc price will fluctuate and fall slightly, while the medium-term zinc price still has room to rise, and the zinc market can be expected in the future.

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