Spot price: according to the price monitoring of business society, the quotation of domestic staple fiber on April 21 was 6993 yuan, down 0.36% from last week.

Futures market: on April 21, the futures price of the pf2107 contract closed at 6992, down 3.40% from the previous trading day, with a settlement price of 7028 yuan; the trading volume was 238205; the position was 93093, with a basis of 1. Domestic polyester industry chain futures closed down today, with glycol down 2.75% and PTA down 1.39%.

Analysis: international oil prices fell, polyester chain PTA, staple fiber rebounded slightly last week, ethylene glycol fell. PTA rebounded last week, this week a small callback. Ethylene glycol fell this week after a brief stabilization last week. After the price of staple fiber fell sharply in March, downstream mills and trade middlemen actively filled their positions at a low level. Coupled with the sharp rise of crude oil in early April, staple fiber rebounded slightly in early April. However, there is still no obvious improvement in downstream orders, with strong wait-and-see sentiment and weak buying. Today, the price of staple fiber is weak and fluctuated.

Forecast: in the future, the international oil price will be adjusted, the downstream demand will be insufficient, and the short-term accumulation pressure of polyester staple fiber will still be in, or will still be weak and volatile. However, in the medium term, downstream orders are expected to pick up. After the inventory is slowly consumed, the kinetic energy of polyester staple fiber decline will weaken, and there may be a possibility of stabilizing and rebounding under the condition of stable crude oil.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

In the near future, the market of propylene oxide is stable. According to the data of business news agency’s block list, as of April 20, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18233.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Tuesday (April 13), with a decrease of 0.36% compared with April 1 and 9.29% compared with March 20.

Recently, the price of propylene oxide Market is stable. At present, most of the market contracts are stable, the spot follow-up is acceptable, and the market game is sorted out. There is a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 17900-18000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 18100-18300 yuan / ton,

Upstream propylene, April 19, Shandong propylene market prices to maintain a small rise. According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. From the 6th, the price rose steadily. From the 16th, the price rose steadily at the rate of 50 yuan / ton again. Now, the market transaction is between 8450 yuan / ton and 8550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8450 yuan / ton. U.S. propylene on April 1, down on the domestic market may have a certain impact. Propylene prices in Asia have risen slightly recently, which has little impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight.

The downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of April 19, the reference factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 18000 yuan / ton, compared with April 6 (reference price was 15400 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2600 yuan / ton, or 16.88%. Compared with April 1 (reference price 15900 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2100 yuan / ton, or 13.21%; for downstream soft foam polyether, Shandong soft foam polyether market was weak on April 19, and the downstream small orders just needed to purchase, so the transaction was relatively cold. On April 19, the mainstream quotation of common soft foam polyether market in Shandong was around 17600-18000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that the current raw material propylene is relatively strong, and the cost side has some support. The spot market just needs to follow up, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be in a stalemate, and the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the market interest guidance.

1、 Trend analysis

According to nickel price monitoring of business society, spot nickel on the 19th was 121850 yuan / ton, down 1.75% compared with last Friday, down 4.9% compared with the beginning of the year, up 24.17% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

The main reason for the weak decline of nickel price is that the president of the Philippines has cancelled the nine-year ban on new mineral agreements since 2012 in order to increase its government revenue. At present, the supply of nickel mines in the Philippines is tight and the miners are profitable, which may stimulate the supply of new mines in the Philippines. In addition, after the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, supply is expected to increase, putting pressure on nickel prices. The downstream stainless steel price also slightly callback, but the stainless steel production profit turns negative, the space below the stainless steel price is limited.

Future forecast: in the near future, the macro positive factors still exist, and there are some adverse factors in the industry, but nickel and stainless steel have some support below, so it is not appropriate to be too pessimistic in the future. Nickel is expected to be weak in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of this week, the quotation of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4262.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, the quotation of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4375.00 yuan / ton, up 2.64%. The current price has increased by 4.17% month on month, and the current price has increased by 0.57% year on year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market rose, the market supply was at a low level, and the manufacturer led price rose, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton. The overall supply is still tight, the downstream market purchases on demand, potassium nitrate market continues to rise, according to business statistics: this week, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4100-4600 yuan / ton (quotation for reference only), according to the different procurement situation, the quotation is different.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is at a high level: on April 16, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2350 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On April 16, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted about 2650 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. Recently, the market of potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level. The arrival of new sources of frontier trade is relatively slow, and the cost support is good, which supports the rise of potassium nitrate Market.

The domestic potash market supply is relatively tight, and the new port supply is not sufficient. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will rise mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the engineering plastics sector was in shock operation in the first half of April, with the overall performance of falling after rising. As of April 15, only PC remained rising in the price rise and fall list of engineering plastics in the business community within half a month. There were 3 kinds of falling commodities and 0 kinds of rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were PC (+ 6.73%); the main commodities falling were PA6 (- 2.89%), PA66 (- 3.59%) and pet (- 1.63%). The average rise and fall in half a month was – 0.34%.

It can be seen from the data that in the first ten days of April, the engineering plastics products rose less and fell more. Among the four commodities in the plate, three of them fell below the average price level at the beginning of the month. Only PC still maintained a strong operation, and the increase rate was considerable. While the fundamentals of other products are fairly stable, they have all declined to varying degrees. It can be seen from the comparison that in early April, the engineering plastics sector showed an independent rise and the overall upward market was blocked. Here are the details:

PC entered a record high, up more than 11% in one month

The PC market seems to be strong after the festival. As of April 15, the PC market comprehensive price monitored by the business community was 29066.67 yuan / ton, which broke through the historical high. The average price level increased by 11.08% compared with the same period last month, with an increase of about 3000 yuan / ton. The upstream bisphenol a market is still in short supply and reluctant to sell. The spot reference negotiation is about 29600-29700 yuan / ton. And the inventory position is on the low side, and the expectation of rising in the future is still there. In the upstream raw materials continue to rise in the state, the domestic PC market high run for many days, continued to rise in April. At present, the rise of the overall market has slowed down, and the PC market has entered the digestion stage. The downstream follow-up is relatively slow and the purchasing operation is cautious. The production and trade traders are active in shipping, and the attitude of price support is obvious.

Weak supply and demand, high cost pressure in PA66 industry

At present, PA66 and PC are also affected by the shortage of upstream raw materials, but the market trend is not the same. According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market had a high callback in the first half of April, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of April 15, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 41400 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.50% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a rise of 97.14% compared with the same period last year. The price range was at a new high in history. The impact of cold disaster in the United States and epidemic situation in Europe and the United States on the supply of PA66 upstream products continues, and the improvement is slow. Among them, the shortage of adironitrile, which is more dependent on import, has an obvious impact on the medium-term market. Domestic imports of adiponitrile and hexanediamine remained low. And the price is high.

Due to the continuous shortage of raw materials, almost all domestic PA66 enterprises, such as Pingdingshan Shenma and Zhejiang Huafeng, are struggling to make bricks without straw, and the overall operating rate of the industry is stable to about half. At the same time, it also causes the enterprise to continue the strategy of no quotation without pressure on inventory, and the shipment mainly meets the old contract customers. The upstream price position is high, and the domestic PA66 price range is still high in the first half of the month. However, the spot offer on the floor has fallen down compared with that before. The continuous cost pressure on the downstream makes the end users complain endlessly, the purchasing strategy is more cautious, and the spot trading on the floor shows an increase in small orders. The decrease of trading power caused price fluctuation to a certain extent. At present, there is no improvement opportunity for the shortage of raw materials in the short term, and the high pressure on the market cost side is worrying. PA66 market is expected to remain high in the short term.

Weak demand, cumulative PA6 inventory decline has continued for more than a month

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market continued its high decline trend in the first half of April, and the spot price mostly decreased. As of April 15, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 14566.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.89% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 38.73% compared with the same period last year. The upstream caprolactam supply continued to be abundant. Although the cost side support was still strong, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market put pressure on the market, and the domestic spot price continued to callback. The operating rate of manufacturers remains high, and the on-site supply may continue to accumulate. Although it is about to enter the peak season of maintenance, in order to ease the current situation of oversupply, we need to wait for the maintenance of major factories to start at the end of the month.

The price of caprolactam continued to fall, the cost support of PA6 was weakened, and the market continued to decline. At present, the decline of PA6 market has lasted for more than a month. In addition to the weakening of upstream price, another important factor comes from PA6 industry itself. At present, domestic PA6 supply is strong, demand is weak, market transaction power is insufficient, and trading is poor, which is a drag on the focus of offer. Traders and factories began to accumulate inventory, and the high inventory and the drop of spot reduced the profit of polymerization plant. Recently, the profit situation of domestic polymerization plants is not good, and most manufacturers have negative profit situation, which leads to the passive reduction of negative profit of some units. At present, the operating rate of the industry has dropped to 70%, and it is likely to continue to decline. Currently, the fundamentals of PA6 are bad, and it is expected that the price of PA6 will continue to decline.

Lack of demand power, pet supply and demand deadlock, up and down dilemma

Compared with other engineering plastics products, the current pet market atmosphere is a little colder. According to the data of business news agency, as of April 15, the quotation of pet water bottle manufacturers was 7050.00 yuan / ton, and the market focus of PET bottle chips declined, which was 1.63% lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month. The price trend was stable and weak. Ethylene glycol in the upper reaches fluctuated downward, with high inventory and slow digestion. Pet cost support is insufficient, and some factories slightly reduced 50-100 yuan / ton. Weak downstream demand, limited number of new orders, on-site supply and demand deadlock, up and down dilemma.

Future forecast

In addition to the stable price support of some upstream raw material import dependent products, engineering plastics products rose less and fell more in the first half of April. Overall, engineering plastics plate in the early period of the market, the products of different degrees of digestion or market, now has entered the overall up after finishing stage. On April 15, the engineering plastics index of Shangshe was 1078 points. On the macro level, the index range was still at a high level, and there was little fluctuation in half a month. However, the fundamental performance of various products is different, which makes the supply of the next maintenance season tighter and the market more uncertain. It is expected that in the second half of April, Tong engineering plastics products will maintain the digestion and finishing market.