According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 1st to 5th, the price of MTBE rose from 5007 yuan/ton to 5036 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.50% during the period, remaining unchanged on a month on month basis and a year-on-year decrease of 16.30%. The domestic MTBE market has experienced slight fluctuations, with several large MTBE production enterprises in Shandong and other regions concentrating on delivering export orders for September. Due to the factor of export port consolidation, the available spot quantity in the domestic market has significantly decreased. In addition, some downstream operators have a demand for spot purchases, so the mentality of manufacturers to sell at low prices is obvious, and prices are mainly actively pushed up. However, with the rise to a temporary high point, downstream resistance has emerged, and transactions have gradually weakened.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: there are reports that OPEC+is considering continuing to increase production in October, increasing the risk of oversupply, and the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States is coming to an end, jointly putting pressure on the oil market. As of September 4th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the November contract was $66.99 per barrel.
On the demand side and downstream gasoline side, international crude oil futures fluctuated downward, and due to the impact of large-scale events, logistics and transportation in the province and surrounding areas were not smooth. End users and traders had weak ordering intentions, and only a few users bought at low prices, which was difficult to effectively boost the refined oil market. Refineries mainly focused on shipping volume. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: The operating rate of the equipment has decreased. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on September 4th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $12.3/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $670.12-672.12/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $7.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $946.99-947.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $17/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $835.64-836/ton (235.95-236.05 cents/gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that raw material prices will slightly decrease, but cost pressure still exists. Manufacturers are still in a loss making situation, and substantial positive news is lacking. It is expected that there will still be a slight downward space in the market. After reaching a certain low point, the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market will increase. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (9.1-5), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average P-value of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4664 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.26% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC remained weak and volatile, with most manufacturers maintaining stable quotes and some making slight adjustments within 50 yuan/ton. Specific reasons: Firstly, the lack of favorable fundamentals has resulted in weak sustainability of crude oil prices, which have been hovering at low levels; The futures market has also shown weakness. Affected by this, the spot price of PVC is unlikely to have a strong trend, and the overall trading range remains at last week’s level. In terms of supply and demand, the spot PVC market has shown a loose supply and demand situation, with most manufacturers’ equipment operating stably. Supply is showing a slow growth trend, and supply pressure still exists. Social inventory is in the stage of accumulation. The more important aspect is that downstream demand has shown insufficient performance, and the peak demand season has not yet arrived, resulting in poor export performance. Distributors’ offers are generally weak, downstream inquiries and procurement enthusiasm are not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging price is low, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in East China is mostly around 4630-4760 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the performance of the calcium carbide market has been average this week, with prices consistently running at a low level. Although prices have turned red this week, the increase is limited, which has limited support for PVC. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the increase this week is 0.7%.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current PVC spot market performance is sluggish, and it is expected that there may still be little improvement next week. Specifically, from three aspects, on the supply side, it is expected that the sea level and Inner Mongolia Jun will start operating after equipment maintenance next week, with an expected increase in production. On the demand side, there is no sign of improvement in the short-term production of downstream plastic manufacturing in China, and domestic demand is running at a low level; Exports are affected by India’s anti-dumping measures, and the medium and long term also show a bearish trend. On the cost side, the price range of calcium carbide is running, and the boost is limited. It is expected that PVC will continue its weak market next week against the backdrop of weak supply and demand and limited cost support.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid has slightly increased this week. On the 29th, the average market price of acetic acid was 2420 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the price of 2400 yuan/ton on August 25th, an increase of 0.83%. Domestic acetic acid prices are running strongly, with price trends rising in various regions. On the supply side, the Shunda plant in Henan has shut down, resulting in a decrease in the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity. At the same time, the traditional peak season is approaching, and the mentality of enterprises is improving. Acetic acid quotations are mainly rising, and downstream demand is steadily following up. The market trading atmosphere is still good, and the company’s shipments are good. The acetic acid market is consolidating and rising.
Recently, the upstream methanol market has been weak and declining. As of the 29th, the average price in the domestic market was 2241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.82% compared to the price of 2306 yuan/ton on August 25th. Domestic methanol facilities have been restored, and market supply has increased. However, the demand support in the mainland market is insufficient, and high priced gas purchases in the market are not good, resulting in a decline in the focus of methanol transactions.
The downstream acetic anhydride market saw a narrow upward adjustment, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride rising from 4082.50 yuan/ton to 4092.50 yuan/ton from August 25th to 29th, an increase of 0.24%. The upstream acetic acid market is relatively strong, and the mentality of industry players is optimistic. The upward momentum of acetic anhydride is increasing, while downstream purchasing is mainly based on demand. The market trading atmosphere is still good, and the price trend of acetic anhydride is rising under the support of favorable costs.
Market forecast: The acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity has decreased during the week, it is still at a relatively high level overall. The market inventory performance is sufficient, and the supply side support is limited. At the same time, downstream market conditions are mostly wait-and-see, and the market replenishment demand is not high. The fundamentals in the market are weak, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage. We will pay attention to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market fluctuated and consolidated in August, with most brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of September 1st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7180 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.51% compared to the price level at the beginning of August.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In the first half of August, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe gradually eased from tension, and market concerns about unstable crude oil supply eased. At the same time, OPEC+production expectations became clear, and negative factors in international oil prices continued. In the latter half of the year, the trend of propane followed the decline of crude oil, and the cost support for PDH manufacturing enterprises continued to weaken. The supply of propylene was first tight and then loose, and the price rose slightly before being hindered. In addition, the general follow-up of downstream demand may drag down the future market trend. Overall, the prices of various PP raw materials provide average cost support.
Supply side:
The operating rate of domestic PP enterprises remained stable and slightly increased in August. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry has increased by 3% to 80% compared to early August, with an average weekly total output of nearly 810000 tons in recent weeks. In the latter half of the year, the first and second lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Jingbo Polyolefin will resume work successively, coupled with the approaching production of the 900000 ton new production line in Daxie, Ningbo. The trend of loose market supply is clear, which seriously limits the support from the supply side. At present, the on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory level has slightly decreased to below 770000 tons, which is relatively controllable. Overall, the support for spot prices from the PP supply side has not improved, and it may continue to exert pressure on the market in the first half of September.
In terms of demand:
In August, polypropylene is in the transition period between peak and off peak seasons. As the end of the month approaches, market players are looking forward to and preparing for a surge in PP demand. However, the trading atmosphere in the field remained light. Merchants have started stocking up slowly, and new orders on site still tend to be mainly scattered small orders and contract deliveries. The improvement of source liquidity is limited. The median load of downstream enterprises has slightly increased, and there is a potential willingness to build warehouses in areas such as plastic weaving, construction, and agriculture. At the same time, there are macro guidance on supply side reforms and other news, and the market has solid bottoming forces. It is recommended to closely monitor the downstream construction dynamics.
Future forecast
The domestic PP market prices fluctuated weakly in August. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is weak, and the overall support for PP is weakened. The industry load is high, stable, and slightly rising, and there is a short-term expectation of loose supply in the future. In terms of consumption, it is at the junction of peak and off peak seasons. The current market is waiting for a surge in consumption, with a hidden atmosphere of seasonal speculation. At the same time, the global central bank meeting released strong macro expectations, and it is expected that the PP peak season market will start in the second half of September.

Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated horizontally, with slight fluctuations in August. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20746.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the market average price of 20596.67 yuan/ton on August 1.
Macro news
International: Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have increased, and the decline in the US dollar index supports commodities, but the US consumer confidence index in August fell to 97.4 (recession risk still exists), dragging down industrial sentiment; Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Russia’s temporary ban on selling gasoline for cars in September have intensified market uncertainty.
Domestically, Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies (lifting purchase restrictions and increasing housing provident fund loan quotas) to boost demand for aluminum profiles and building templates; However, from January to July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, and the momentum of consumer recovery was relatively weak.
Industry fundamentals news
(1) Supply and demand and inventory
Supply: The domestic production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.035 million tons (close to the industry limit), with limited short-term growth; Some enterprises have reduced production (Shandong Weiqiao reduced production by 500000 tons, Qinghai Zhonglv reduced production by 400000 tons) and resumed production (Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Aluminum plans to resume production of another 50000 tons within this year).
Demand: Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, with aluminum rod processing fees rising to 190 yuan/ton and aluminum rod outbound volume of 62400 tons. However, the operating rate of the aluminum profile industry is only 50.5%, and orders for automotive and photovoltaic profiles have decreased. The weak demand in the photovoltaic industry still poses pressure.
Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 610000 tons (an increase of 7000 tons compared to August 25th), the social inventory of aluminum rods is 136200 tons (an increase of 1300 tons), and the LME aluminum ingot inventory is 4812500 tons (an increase of 3175 tons). The trend of inventory depletion has slowed down, and the pressure has increased.
(2) Cost end
The average spot price of alumina is 3235 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with light trading volume); The price of pre baked anode is 4913 yuan/ton (unchanged); The average price of Q5500 thermal coal is 571 yuan/ton (a decrease of 2 yuan/ton), and the overall cost support is relatively neutral.