Since October, the spot market for styrene butadiene rubber has been fluctuating and declining, with a price of 16175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, it was boosted by the strength of crude oil and butadiene, rising to 16833 yuan/ton. Subsequently, downstream resistance to high prices led to a slight decline in the center of gravity around 16133 yuan/ton. As of the 21st, the price has dropped by 3.01% compared to the previous month.
Geopolitical disturbances have pushed up crude oil prices, driving butadiene to operate at a high level. However, with the resumption of cracking units and an increase in imported goods, butadiene supply has gradually eased, resulting in a slight decline in prices. Since October, there has been a contraction in the supply of styrene units due to maintenance and load reduction, supported by low port inventory. However, downstream ABS, PS, and EPS have weak willingness to receive goods, and there is insufficient follow-up on demand, which has constrained the increase in styrene prices. As of October 21st, the price of butadiene was 13233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% from 13550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of October 21st, the price of styrene was 11014 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.81% from 10610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The domestic styrene butadiene plant has been operating at around 70% capacity, with minimal maintenance and no obvious destocking or accumulation, making it difficult for the supply side to form strong support.
After the holiday, the dividends of the peak season of Golden September have faded, and the demand for all steel tires is weak. The inventory of tire products is slow, and profits are under pressure. Many enterprises just need to purchase and avoid hoarding. The demand for non tire materials such as shoe materials and rubber hoses is flat and lacks increment. Insufficient support for styrene butadiene rubber.
Market forecast:
Technically speaking, from the spot moving average chart, the current spot price of styrene butadiene rubber has fallen below the short-term 5-day and 10 day moving averages, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. The medium to long term moving average (20/30/60 days) is still upward, and the medium-term upward trend has not been broken, forming a support range. Short term indicators have turned around, indicating a need for a pullback to digest profit taking orders. Predict a weak consolidation of short-term fluctuations, supported by the medium to long-term moving average below; If the support is held, the market may stabilize and rebound again. If it effectively falls below the moving average, the downside space will expand.
Fundamentally speaking, in the short term, styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate at a high level, with strong resistance above. Without centralized replenishment, it will be difficult to stand firm, and cost and rigid demand support will limit the potential for deep decline. In the medium to long term, as we enter the traditional off-season of November and December, demand will further weaken, and the price center is prone to decline but difficult to rise. If the support of crude oil collapses, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the fourth quarter will drop significantly.

Since October, the nitrile rubber market has mainly fluctuated and consolidated. As of October 21st, the price was 18625 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% from 17575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the high point during the cycle was 18975 yuan/ton. As of October 21st, the offer price for Lanhua Nitrile 3305E in East China is 17600-17800 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 mainstream package price ranges from 2020 to 20400 yuan/ton.
During the National Day holiday, the market saw light trading and stable prices; In mid month, due to the reluctance of traders to sell and the tight supply of some brands, prices surged, but downstream resistance to high prices made it difficult to increase trading volume, resulting in a market with price but no quantity; In the second half of the year, prices fell and the long short game intensified.
Since October, domestic butadiene has fluctuated weakly after opening high, while acrylonitrile has fluctuated slightly higher. After the National Day holiday, with the gradual release of cracking units and the recovery of port inventory, coupled with the obvious resistance of downstream profits to high prices, the price of butadiene fell under pressure. The domestic supply and demand of acrylonitrile are relatively stable, and the cost is supported by the tight international energy market. As of October 21st, the price of butadiene was 13283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97% from 13550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of October 21st, the price of acrylonitrile was 11033 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32% from 10783 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The mainstream equipment in China is operating smoothly overall, with the industry operating at over 80% of capacity. The total volume is loose, and there is no significant pressure on manufacturers to accumulate inventory. Some brands have a shortage of circulating goods, resulting in a structural shortage. The arrival rhythm of goods from Japan, South Korea, and Russia at the port is stable, with no concentrated large-scale arrival impact. In the later stage, the 50000 tons/year plan of Zhenjiang Nandi will be shut down for maintenance, and the supply of nitrile rubber will slightly decrease in the later stage.
The demand shows structural differentiation. Automotive seals, rubber hoses, and oil seals are in high demand, and the demand for new energy vehicle accessories is stable. However, the increase in downstream product orders is limited, and companies tend to stock up in short cycles, which makes them resistant to high priced sources of goods; The sustained low demand for nitrile gloves has dragged down overall demand. The market has limited room for fluctuations.
Market forecast:
From the trend chart, the current spot price of nitrile rubber has fallen to around the 5-day and 10 day moving averages, and the short-term upward momentum has weakened; The 5/10/20 daily moving average still maintains a bullish position, and there is still support for the medium to long term trend. The upper pressure is on the 19000 line, and the lower support is based on 18500 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is a high probability of high volatility. If the moving average remains stable, it will remain strong. If it falls below the 20 day moving average, the trend may weaken.
Overall, it is expected that there will be a wide range of fluctuations in the short term. The expected maintenance of Nandi will bring temporary emotional support, but butadiene is weak and there is a lack of centralized replenishment downstream, making it difficult to continue rising; If there are no new maintenance or strong cost incentives, the price center of gravity may slightly approach the cost line.

Recently, the domestic formic acid market has maintained a horizontal and volatile pattern. As of October 19th, the benchmark price of formic acid was 2100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The mutual game between long and short factors constrains the market, and there is a lack of upward or downward momentum to break through, resulting in a weak overall trading atmosphere in the market.
Weak performance on the supply and demand side
Last week, the downstream demand for formic acid showed weak performance, and the market lacked large purchase orders. Transactions were mainly supported by scattered downstream demand. Downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of the current formic acid price, and their procurement strategies remain cautious. They tend to replenish as needed and in small quantities, without any willingness to proactively stock up. The insufficient volume of terminal orders directly restricts the market transaction scale. The overall performance of production enterprises’ shipments is average, and there is differentiation in inventory situations among different manufacturers: some factories have a slower shipping pace, and temporary inventory pressure is gradually emerging; The inventory of other production enterprises is maintained within a reasonable range, and inventory pressure is relatively controllable.
Smooth and stable operation of raw materials
There were no significant fluctuations in raw materials this week, and there was no strong support or obvious drag on the price of formic acid from the cost side. The cost remained stable, making it difficult to drive the formic acid market out of a trend. The overall operation of the supply side is relatively stable, and domestic formic acid enterprises have no centralized maintenance or significant increase or decrease in production plans. The market spot supply remains stable, and there has been no extreme situation of shortage or concentrated increase in supply. The stable supply side further consolidates the foundation of formic acid’s horizontal trend.
Market sentiment is mainly wait-and-see
Downstream users mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach, not chasing high prices or hoarding goods; On the one hand, production enterprises are unwilling to publicly lower their quotations to avoid triggering market panic and price reductions. On the other hand, in the face of weak demand, they moderately offer discounts to promote orders in actual transactions. Traders also tend to be conservative in their operations, using and purchasing as needed, reducing hoarding in intermediate links, and basically absent speculative demand in the market. Under the long short game, the market is in a stalemate.
Overall, the current market demand is weak and there is no obvious positive news. The short-term formic acid market is likely to continue the stalemate pattern, and specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated widely this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 117383.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.67% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 4.14%.
Macro wise: The overall macro sentiment this week is bearish, significantly suppressing nickel prices. In September, the US CPI rose by 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 3.4%. The significant increase in gasoline prices by 9.1% month on month contributed more than half of the increase, and the process of inflation falling has stalled. The unexpected CPI data reignited the market’s bet on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, with the US dollar index hitting an 18 month high at one point, forming a systematic pressure on US dollar denominated metals from the valuation side. According to CME data, the probability of a rate hike in October has risen to 33.2%, but officials have since downplayed their stance. However, the overall interest rate environment still puts pressure on the valuation of the non-ferrous sector.
In terms of raw materials, nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products all weakened this week. In the second half of October, Indonesia’s HMA dropped to $15847.67 per ton, with almost zero rise in humus soil. The Philippines’ mining volume increased, and the mining industry turned to buyers. The factory price of high nickel iron has dropped to 1030-1050 yuan/nickel, and steel mills have lowered the price to below 1000 yuan. MHP、 High ice nickel FOB continues to decline, and cost support continues to collapse.
On the supply side: The loose situation on the supply side continues, and the cost support on the mining side is further weakened. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines predicts that the actual production of nickel ore for the whole year of 2026 will be about 290 million tons, exceeding the RKAB quota limit of 260 million to 270 million tons, and the expectation of tight raw materials will continue to ease. In the first half of October, the benchmark price (HMA) for domestic nickel ore in Indonesia was lowered to $16322.67 per ton, a decrease of 2.25% from the second half of September. The mainstream grade premium of humus ore turned negative for the first time across the board, and the pricing dominance of the mining end has shifted to buyers. The Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum predicts a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% to 4% in total processed nickel production in 2026, but the HPAL wet process project in 2027 will drive a significant increase in production capacity.
On the demand side: The overall demand side is weak, but there is a clear differentiation internally. As stainless steel is the largest consumer of nickel, steel mills continue to lower the price of nickel iron to around 945 yuan/nickel. There is an expectation of a month on month decrease in stainless steel production in October, which has dragged down the consumption of nickel iron. In terms of new energy, the production of ternary materials in September was about 81300 tons, a decrease of about 10.7% compared to August, and the production of ternary precursors was about 89100 tons, a decrease of 7.8% compared to the previous month. However, the terminal demand for ternary batteries has shown strong resilience, and the demand for nickel has not decreased due to the decline in sales of new energy vehicles, but has continued to grow year-on-year. Pure nickel and nickel salt prices have shown a dual track divergence, and the nickel end of the battery has become passive in response to spot fluctuations due to the long-term price lock mechanism, while the price of nickel chloride remains stable.

Influencing factor: The inventory pressure continues to increase. As of October 16th, the previous period’s nickel warehouse receipts increased to 94036 tons, significantly accumulating compared to last week; Although LME nickel inventory has decreased, it still remains at a high level of over 280000 tons. The domestic social inventory of nickel plates is about 122900 tons. Although there has been a slight destocking of 602 tons on a weekly basis, the absolute level is still at a high level, making it difficult to destocking refined nickel. On October 13th, the International Nickel Research Group (INSG) revised the global primary nickel market forecast for 2026 from a shortage of 32000 tons in April to an excess of 19000 tons, and also estimated a surplus of 70000 tons in 2027, further confirming the surplus pattern. In addition, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines has stated that it will consider tightening the restrictions on new production capacity for semi-finished nickel smelting projects, and has promised to accelerate the RKAB audit in 2027. Policy uncertainty remains a focus of attention in the future.
In summary, nickel prices continued to decline weakly this week, with US inflation exceeding expectations → interest rate hike bets heating up → US dollar strengthening → pressure on non-ferrous metal valuations, coupled with the continued release of Indonesian mining quotas → lower mining prices → weakened cost support, as well as stainless steel prices and ternary production cuts → weakened demand expectations. The triple negative resonance drove prices to break through the cost line. The current nickel price has fallen below the cash cost of about 118776 yuan/ton, and the widespread losses in the smelting process have limited further downward space. However, the high inventory and surplus pattern still suppress the rebound momentum. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a low, weak and volatile pattern in the short term.

The epoxy chloropropane market has been operating steadily this week. As of October 15th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin was 11200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The high price of raw material propylene provides strong cost support for epichlorohydrin. In terms of glycerol, external prices have weakened and demand is poor, but prices remain firm in the context of tight domestic supply. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 15th, the benchmark price of propylene was 10701.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.23% compared to the beginning of this month (9707.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The contraction trend is relatively clear. This week, some facilities in Jiangsu, Shandong and other regions stopped and operated with reduced load, and the previously stopped facilities have not been restarted. This week, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic ECH industry has dropped to 44.5%, further decreasing compared to the previous period, and the overall market supply has significantly decreased compared to last week.
On the demand side: focusing on immediate needs and limited volume. The main downstream epoxy resin market saw a slight increase this week, but terminal demand maintained a rigid procurement rhythm and there was no concentrated replenishment behavior. Downstream acceptance of high priced goods is limited, and actual transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs. The demand side lacks sustained upward pressure on prices.
Market forecast: Analysts believe that in the short term, there will be a strong consolidation and limited upward space. The logic of current supply contraction and cost support still exists, and ECH prices are expected to maintain a strong pattern in the short term. However, there is a lack of substantial volume on the demand side, and the weak operation of glycerol prices may weaken the subsequent cost support. It is expected that the ECH market will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations next week, with a focus on changes in the pace of device restarts and downstream inventory replenishment willingness.