On March 19, the overall styrene market fell. Crude oil fell sharply, pure benzene fell along with the trend, ethylene price was firm, and the cost side moved down. Due to the strong price of raw materials, the price of styrene dropped sharply, the profit of styrene was quickly compressed to near the theoretical cost, and the shock finishing of styrene at night did not bring good to the spot styrene market. This week, the speed of port going to the warehouse was accelerated, which supported the price of styrene. However, with the resumption of production of early maintenance devices and the launch of new production capacity, the domestic supply increased. On the downstream side, ABS continued to decline, and some EPS factories had obvious inventory pressure, resulting in insufficient market gas. To sum up, under the expectation that the export is not well supported and the supply is increasing but the demand is low, it is expected that the styrene market will still be in the shock consolidation stage after the rapid rise and fall in the short term.

Today, the price of styrene in East China was lowered to around 8400-8450 yuan / ton. The price is around 8400 yuan / ton in Northeast China and 8950-9050 yuan / ton in South China.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose slightly this week. The spot nickel price was 122900 yuan / ton, up 0.42% from 123833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 4.08% from the beginning of the year, and up 33.42% year on year. At the beginning of this week, Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 121300, and then the price fluctuated in a narrow range, closing at 120610 on Friday, down 0.28%. Lunni closed at US $16035 on Friday, up 0.12%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, nickel prices mainly fluctuated at low levels, with little rise or fall. Since the previous high nickel matte event, nickel prices have been stagnant and hovering at a low level. The domestic nickel mine inventory in the upstream has dropped to the lowest level in recent years, and the mine restart of Norilsk company has been delayed, and the nickel mine tension has continued. Recently, the news of Qingshan ferronickel turning to high nickel matte has been gradually digested. At present, the domestic nickel inventory is still at a low level, and the tight supply situation still exists, which supports the stabilization of nickel price. However, as the end of the rainy season approaches in the Philippines, the situation of tight nickel mines will be eased, or there will be pressure on nickel prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of sodium bicarbonate has been running at a high level recently. On March 18, the average price in the domestic market was 1616.67 yuan / ton. On March 17, the commodity index of baking soda was 106.64, up 2.88 points from yesterday, down 12.36% from the highest point of 121.68 points (2020-10-21) in the cycle, and up 20.81% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business community, the price of sodium bicarbonate is running at a high level, and the shipment in the downstream market is fair. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1550-1700 yuan, which is the mainstream quotation in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1550-1650 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic soda price is strong. The price of soda ash in East China is strong, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is strong, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1650-1800 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is strong. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1600-1700 yuan / ton. The demand for soda ash is relatively stable due to the increase of downstream glass price. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be strong in the short term.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food demand for bicarbonate is fair, and the price of bicarbonate has strengthened after the recent rise. Analysts from business news agency think: in the near future, the price of raw material soda ash has gone up, which is relatively strong, and the demand of downstream market is fair. Generally speaking, the price of sodium bicarbonate may maintain a strong trend in the short term, and the specific situation depends on the demand of downstream market.

Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market of caprolactam fell from a high level in mid March, and the spot price of individual products fell significantly. As of March 17, the average price of caprolactam sample enterprises was 13733.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.98% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a month on month increase of 19.77% compared with the same period in February.

quotations analysis

In early March, domestic caprolactam price position has been higher, to mid market began to callback. At present, caprolactam is in the trend of rising and falling. Today (March 17), the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 13400 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction can be discussed. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price 14500 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year plant is currently normal operation, acceptance delivery. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 14500 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. In terms of upstream pure benzene, the recent trend of pure benzene fluctuated and fell. In terms of crude oil, international crude oil supply continued to tighten, and international oil prices continued to favor pure benzene. However, some downstream pure benzene units in Shandong were shut down for maintenance, and the demand decreased. In addition, the current and futures of styrene fell, which affected the price of pure benzene. But on the whole, pure benzene still has the ability of action.

Future forecast

Caprolactam business analyst said: caprolactam upstream benzene market is OK, caprolactam cost side support is still in. On the supply side, although the recent domestic caprolactam spot accumulation is not prominent, even unplanned capacity loss. However, the operating rate of downstream plants fell, and the demand began to shrink. The reason for the current drop in spot price is that domestic caprolactam is unable to bear the pressure of weakening demand, and the caprolactam market is expected to continue to adjust downward in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 14, the average price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was RMB 14966 / T, down 1.10% compared with the price of 1 March (average price of n-butanol reference of 15133 yuan / ton).

In a short 10 day history, butanol prices soared 64 percent

Since February 18, after the Spring Festival, in just ten days, the domestic n-butanol market has staged a scene that has not passed in the past decade. The price of n-butanol has risen 64% in ten days.

Stability under high position: butanol market fell in March

The high level of butanol is nearly March. However, the hidden danger of the surge appeared in early March. The downstream conflict with high prices gradually rose, the market activity atmosphere was stagnant. Since March, the price of the quotation of n-butanol factory gradually declined, and the mentality of the industry weakened some downstream users to digest the raw material reserve, and the high-end market quotation was under pressure. By 5 days, the factory price reference of n-butanol in Shandong Province was made In 14000-15000 yuan / ton, the price fell 300-800 yuan / ton from the first day, down more than 5% and the market remained low.

Tenacious trend to meet rebound price and set “high point” again

On August 8, stimulated by the maintenance of foreign octanol units, the domestic downstream exports of n-butanol increased, the market trading atmosphere was warmer, the factory limited orders were received, and the ex factory price of n-butanol rebounded sharply. On the 10th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province rose to 15200-15500 yuan / T, with the average price reference at 15300 yuan / T, and the market price rebounded rapidly, and the price rose 500-1200 yuan / T compared with that of 5 days, which has exceeded the month On the first day, the price reached a high of nearly 10 years.

“Deadlock” in the downstream cost bearing heavy n-butanol transaction

However, the so-called “high place is too cold”, the market of n-butanol under high level is once again in a situation of domestic demand turning light, and the cost pressure is increasing. The main downstream butyl alcohol users slow down the purchase of raw materials, the new transaction atmosphere of new orders in the market is flat, the normal butanol industry is active in shipping, and the focus of the talks in the n-butanol market on November and December has been moving down continuously, the high-end offer is slow to go, and the inventory of n-butanol in some factories is tired In addition, the atmosphere in the field is weak and cold.

As of the 14th day, the factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was near the range of 14700-15300 yuan / T, and the low-end quotation fell to 14500 yuan / T. compared with two days ago, the maximum decline was nearly 1000 yuan / T, and the average price of n-butanol was RMB 14966 / T. compared with 10 days, the average price was decreased by 334 yuan / T, down 2.18% in two days. Compared with the previous day, the price was down 166 yuan / ton, or 1.10%.

Upstream, according to the price map of business agency, affected by upstream and downstream, propylene prices rose repeatedly in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. At the beginning of the month, it was stable. On the 4th, the price began to decline, and the price generally rose on the 8th. The two days rose 150-250 yuan / ton, and the price was generally stable. The current market transaction was between 8450 yuan and 8650 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of about 8450 yuan / ton. The low temperature impact of the United States is still in existence, and the capacity is generally recovered; the impact of propylene in Japan has been reduced and the capacity is slightly recovered.

Demand has a profound impact on the short-term n-butanol market, which is still likely to continue to loosen

From the current trend, although the price of butanol is down again, the overall reduction is not large, the high-end offer price is still at 15300 yuan / ton, and the market is still in high-level operation. Therefore, the analysts of normal butanol of business agency believe that, from the current factory price of n-butanol, it is difficult to stimulate a large-scale replenishment in the downstream. Downstream customers continue to wait for the purchase, and the demand can not be improved In other words, the inventory of n-butanol plant will gradually accumulate, so the analysts of normal butanol data of business agency believe that the factory will continue to reduce the delivery price of n-butanol in order to stimulate more shipments, and the market will continue to weaken and loosen.