Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell this week, from 2760.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2690.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.54%, up 63.36% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell this week, with the urea commodity index at 125.12 on July 9.

Upstream support strengthened, downstream demand slowed down and supply side was tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong fell this week. Urea in Yangmei plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2690 yuan / ton this weekend, down 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, from 3750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3993.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.49%, up 62.77% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal rose slightly, from 965.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 982.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.81%, up 64.85% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4450.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.38%, 44.32% over the same period last year. Melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose slightly this week, from 10833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62%.

In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the overall demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the urea plant maintenance is still the same, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily output is less than 160000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International: it is said that India will issue a new round of import bidding this month, which will boost the domestic market mentality. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.

India standard boost, future price bullish

In the middle of July, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand in various regions has declined, but the industrial demand is not obviously positive, the urea supply is tight, and the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea. However, India may issue a new round of import bidding, which will boost the domestic market mentality, and the future market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9200 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 9166 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a drop of 0.36%.

At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; The domestic activated carbon market has not changed much, and the quotation is stable. With the flexibility of traders, the terminal demand has not changed significantly. The factory still purchases on demand to meet normal production, and the overall trading atmosphere is flat.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: the overall market of activated carbon market is mainly stable, and some offers are slightly down. It is expected that the activated carbon market will be mainly volatile in the short term.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde at the beginning of the week was 5700 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the week was 5666 yuan / ton, down 0.58%.

2、 Market analysis

On July 6, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 5700 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which was the same as last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 5400-5500 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax is 5900 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last time. Individual manufacturers were dragged down by the reduction of raw material methanol, and the price of paraformaldehyde followed the decline.

On July 7, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated at a low level, with the main contract ma2109 closing at 2562 yuan / ton, down 72 yuan / ton or 2.73% compared with the closing of the previous trading day. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 7, the average price of domestic methanol manufacturers in Shandong was 2540 yuan / ton, with a month on month drop of 1.45%.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material methanol is weak, and polyoxymethylene market demand is general. Polyoxymethylene analysts of business association predict that the price of polyoxymethylene may be reduced.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 30, the average factory price reference of domestic butanone market was 8100 yuan / ton. Compared with April 1 (reference price of butanone was 8033 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.83%.

According to the data monitoring chart of butanone in the second quarter of 2021, the domestic butanone market had experienced a sharp rise in the second quarter of 2021. The main reason for the sharp rise in the market came from the favorable support of reduced supply brought by equipment maintenance. At the end of March and the beginning of April, the main domestic butanone factories were overhauled and the spot supply of butanone was tight. With the decrease of supply, the market price began to rise steadily at the beginning of April. The market price of butanone continued to rise to the middle of May. On May 16, the reference average price of butanone was 9400 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of April, the average price rose 1433 yuan / ton, or 18%. However, since late May, the price of butanone began to fall, mainly due to the fact that the factories started to drive one after another and the supply increased, the market mentality was frustrated, the butanone holders also had great panic, the high end of butanone began to worry, the bearish mentality of the industry increased, and the price of butanone began to fall gradually.

In June, the butanone market continued to decline sharply. Under the imbalance of supply and demand, the contradiction between supply and demand gradually intensified, and the market began to show signs of bidding. The price fell all the way below the price at the beginning of April. On June 16, the reference average price of domestic butanone was 7700 yuan / ton, which was 333 yuan / ton lower than the price at the beginning of April, a decrease of 4.15%. Near the end of the month, affected by the maintenance of butanone equipment in Lanzhou and other regions in the next July and August, the spot supply of butanone began to be tight at the end of June, and the market price began to rise at the end of the month. As of June 30, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average factory reference price of domestic butanone was 8100 yuan / ton, which was 400 yuan / ton higher than the low price in the middle of June, Compared with the high price of butanone market since the second quarter (the reference price of butanone is 9400 yuan / ton), the average price has decreased by 1300 yuan / ton, or 14.44%. Compared with the beginning of the second quarter (the reference price of butanone is 8100 yuan / ton), the average price has increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.83%.

On the upstream side, in June, the overall LPG market in Shandong Province went up in shock. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of LPG on June 30 was 4283 yuan / ton, up 3.38% compared with that on June 1 (4143.33 yuan / ton).

Future market analysis of butanone

At the end of June, the butanone market was in short supply. In July, the maintenance of butanone equipment in Lanzhou and Shandong continued. In the short term, the market supply could not be effectively alleviated. Therefore, the butanone Data Engineer of business society believes that after entering July, the domestic butanone market will continue to rise at the end of June, and the market price is expected to continue to rise.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 7, the average price of PET water bottle manufacturers was 7220.00 yuan / ton. The overall pet market was running smoothly, with a slight upward trend. The quotation of manufacturers increased slightly, up 3.14% compared with the same period last month.

Recently, the price of pet market has gone up. Some manufacturers have slightly increased their prices, but the prices have gone up in a narrow range. At present, pet is in smooth circulation. The transaction price is floating on and off the cost line. The focus of the negotiation is narrow and upward. The downstream demand is general, and the inventory is normal. The mainstream price range of pet is about 7200 yuan / ton.

On July 6, the rubber and plastic index was 791 points, up 4 points from yesterday, down 25.38% from 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 49.81% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

Business community PET analysts believe that: in the short term, pet prices rose slightly, the center of gravity moved up（ To learn more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods, and grasp the price of commodities.