Recent trend of urea price
As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell this week, from 2760.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2690.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.54%, up 63.36% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell this week, with the urea commodity index at 125.12 on July 9.
Upstream support strengthened, downstream demand slowed down and supply side was tight
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong fell this week. Urea in Yangmei plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2690 yuan / ton this weekend, down 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.
From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, from 3750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3993.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.49%, up 62.77% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal rose slightly, from 965.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 982.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.81%, up 64.85% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4450.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.38%, 44.32% over the same period last year. Melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose slightly this week, from 10833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62%.
In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the overall demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the urea plant maintenance is still the same, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily output is less than 160000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International: it is said that India will issue a new round of import bidding this month, which will boost the domestic market mentality. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.
India standard boost, future price bullish
In the middle of July, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand in various regions has declined, but the industrial demand is not obviously positive, the urea supply is tight, and the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea. However, India may issue a new round of import bidding, which will boost the domestic market mentality, and the future market price may fluctuate slightly.
| PVA |