1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been stable after rising steadily in the past eight days. On May 1 and 2, the price of the 8th day was 8055 yuan / ton, and on May 8, it was the high price for the eighth day, with 8329 yuan / ton, and the increase of 3.41% on the eighth day.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business agency, the propylene price in Shandong Province rose continuously in the first ten days in April, and the price in the second ten days fell sharply, and remained stable at the end of the month. The first two days of May 1 period continued to stabilize. From March to 7th, the daily upward trend was about 50 yuan / ton. Today, it has been stable. The current market transaction is between 8300 yuan and 8450 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of about 8300 yuan / ton. On May 7, the U. There is no pressure on the stock of propylene market, some of the devices are still under maintenance, and the source of goods is slightly tight.

Recently, the international crude oil market events have been constant, and the price has fluctuated. The crude oil price has declined slightly on May 7, which has weakened the impact on the propylene market.

PP prices have been rising continuously in the past eight days, with an 8-day increase of 1.73%. The futures market is generally, and has limited impact on the propene’s positive.

Acrylic acid prices have stabilized after the upward trend in the past eight days, with an increase of 1.63% in the eighth day, which has little effect on the properyl Lido.

In recent eight days, the propylene oxide market rose slightly, 8 days up 2.12%, which has a pull-up effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market fell continuously in the last eight days, with a decline of 6.17% in the eighth day, which has a certain negative effect on propylene.

In recent eight days, the price of n-butanol in China rose sharply, up 19.74% in the eighth day, which has a more obvious pull-up effect on the propylene market.

The price of isooctanol has been stable after the obvious increase in the last eight days, with an increase of 11.27% in the eighth day, which has a positive effect on propylene.

In the past eight days, the price of isopropanol has declined slightly, and the decline in the eighth day is 0.72%, which has little impact on propylene.

In the past eight days, the phenol Market Price in East China has been stable after rising steadily, with an increase of 2.69% in the eighth day, which has a slight positive effect on propylene.

In the past eight days, the prices of manufacturers in East China acetone market fell, with a decline of 2.73% in the eighth day, which had a slight negative effect on propylene.

The price of acrylonitrile market has been falling in the past eight days, with a decline of 1.67% on the eighth day and an amplitude of 2.55% on the eighth day, which has a little impact on the profit and air of propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: in a comprehensive way, there are not many domestic stocks, some units are overhauled, crude oil market is slightly down, the downstream operating rate is still acceptable, the market is more than empty, polypropylene futures are general, and propylene is expected to continue to remain stable.

In April, propane market was first promoted and then suppressed, and the overall decline was achieved. According to the data of business society, the average price of propane market was 4515.75 yuan / ton on April 1, and that of April 30 was 4413.25 yuan / ton, while the overall decline in April was 2.27%, up 10.89% compared with March 1.

As of April 30, the main prices of propane in domestic sub region are as follows:

region Specifications April 30th

East China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4100-4300 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4450-4550 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4300-4600 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4150-4200 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4500-4600 yuan / ton

In April, the propane Market in Shandong Province is divided into two stages: the first half and the second half, first of all, the first half. In the first half of the month, the propane market continued to rise, with prices exceeding 4800 yuan. After the Qing Ming holiday, propane Market in Shandong Province has been on a continuous upward trend, and the main positive results are from low supply of support. In April, the market began to overhaul successively, and the market supply decreased, which brought obvious support to the market. Secondly, the international crude oil surge brought obvious positive effects to the market. After the holiday, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream, which is more active in the market, the market transaction atmosphere is good, the upstream inventory is low, the manufacturer’s mentality is good, and the price is pushed to a high level.

But in the next half of the month, it began to go down all the way, which was in contrast to the trend of the continuous rise in the first half of the month. In the next half of the month, the market of the South and North was down, but the decline in the north market was more obvious than that of the southern market. The main reasons for the decline are as follows: first, the refinery was forced to cut prices due to the impact of the low port price in East China market. Secondly, the international crude oil has been falling from the 18th, which has weak support for the market. Finally, in terms of demand, because the overall demand of domestic market is at a weak level, in the case of sufficient supply side, downstream multi maintenance stage replenishment, refinery delivery is general, inventory continues to accumulate, leading to the price successive weak down.

Saudi Aramco announced in May that the butane was down. Propane is 495 USD / T, which is adjusted to 65 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; Butane was $475 / T, down $55 / T from last month.

At present, the price of propane Market in Shandong has fallen back to less than 4500 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, with the price of CP falling in May, the cost of imported gas has brought negative factors to the market. In terms of demand, market demand is at a weak level, and downstream procurement is mainly on demand. In the later period, with the increase of temperature, demand still has weak expectations. However, after May 1 holiday, there is replenishment operation in the downstream. It is expected that the price of propane market may rise slightly in the short term, but it may still decline in the long term.

The contradiction between supply and demand was prominent, and the market of BDO went down in a wide range in April. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 29825 yuan / ton on April 1, and 27525 yuan / ton on April 30, with a price drop of 7.71% and a year-on-year rise of 197.89%. In April, there was no major overhaul of BDO units in China, most of which were catalyst replacement or short-term overhaul, with abundant supply; And the terminal demand follow-up fatigue, high price raw materials squeeze most of the downstream profit space.

Trend chart of domestic BDO market in April 2021

According to the price monitoring of business community, in April 2021, there were 51 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, among which there were 30 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 32.6% of the number of commodities monitored; The top three commodities were melamine (34.28%), acetic anhydride (31.91%) and acetic acid (29.83%). A total of 31 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 15 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three products were formic acid (- 18.44%), aniline (- 17.86%) and n-propanol (- 16.17%). The average rise and fall this month was 3.19%.

The domestic BDO market fell sharply this month. The operation of the plant is stable and the supply is abundant; However, the terminal follow-up was weak, high price raw materials squeezed the downstream profit space, the market position was cautious, the bidding price continued to decline, and the bearish sentiment was strong. Supplier shipping mentality, profit negotiation.

In terms of plant, the 200000 t / a plant of great wall energy was shut down on April 15 to replace the catalyst for about a week; The monthly load of 150 kt / a plant in Panjin Dalian will be increased to 80%; The unit load of Yanchang oil 100000 tons / year will be maintained at about 30-40%; The 110000t / a unit in Kaixiang, Henan Province, was temporarily overhauled within a month due to boiler problems, and planned to be overhauled for one month at the end of May; The 204000 T / a unit in Lanshan Tunhe has been replaced by turns since March 21 and restarted in mid April; The 40000 t / a unit in Meizhou Bay was temporarily shut down for maintenance at the end of April; The 100000 t / a plant of Shaanxi Ronghe will produce products on April 6, and the current load is 60%; Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua 200000 t / a plant load reduced to 70%; Dongyuan, Inner Mongolia, is now in stable operation and will be shut down for maintenance from May 8 to 20; The replacement of catalyst in the 60000t / a plant of Shaanxi black cat was postponed to May 6, with an estimated 15 days.

Downstream, the domestic spandex PTMEG market high strong this month. The market of PTMEG in non spandex area was finished horizontally. Domestic THF market shocks downward. PBT market continued to decline. The focus of GBL market is going down. In April, the domestic polyurethane resin market rose first and then fell. The domestic TPU market fluctuated downward.

Next month, some BDO devices will be put into maintenance plan, and the supply will be reduced; When the demand end storage device is restarted, the demand will increase and the factory inventory pressure will decrease. But with the main downstream PTMEG spandex terminal demand gradually into the off-season, market mentality will be affected. BDO analysts of business news agency expect that the decline of domestic BDO market in May may may slow down.

This week (4.26-30), the domestic liquid ammonia market was mainly stable. After a slight rebound last week, the market fell into a deadlock again. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly rise of liquid ammonia was 0. Last week, liquid ammonia manufacturers generally raised their quotations, and Hebei and Shandong large factories all increased by more than 100 yuan. With the slowdown of shipment speed, supply and demand recovered to balance, and prices stopped rising.

As the holiday approaches and the festival stabilizes, the liquid ammonia in Shandong Province is mainly light and stable. At present, the inventory pressure of the region is acceptable, but the region is in the accumulation stage. The average prices of some large factories in Shandong Province are mainly stable in recent days, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable. The mainstream prices in this region are 3650-3800 yuan / ton. At present, the production of liquid ammonia by manufacturers in the region is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure in the region has stabilized. It is expected that the price will stabilize in the near future.

This week, the price of liquid ammonia in Hebei remained stable, and the current stock pressure of goods source in this region did not change much compared with the previous period. This week, the quotation of large factories remained stable, and the stock pressure of manufacturers was acceptable. The mainstream price in this region was 3650-3750 yuan / ton. At present, the production of liquid ammonia by the manufacturer is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure in the region is not big. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future.

In the future, the supply and demand of domestic liquid ammonia is basically balanced. With the resumption of large factories in Henan and Lianghu, the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated. It is expected that the price of liquid ammonia will maintain a narrow adjustment in the near future.

On April 30, the natural rubber commodity index was 39.76, up 0.06 points from yesterday, down 60.24% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 45.75% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Figure 2: Trend of natural rubber mainstream price in late April 2021

As shown in Figure 2, natural rubber showed a slight upward trend in late April. Spot rubber: the monitoring data of natural rubber in East China (standard 1) showed that in the second half of this month, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk in East China market was about 13015 yuan / ton on the 16th, and 13407 yuan / ton on the 30th, up about 3%. Among them, the highest price in the last ten days was 13437.5 yuan / ton on the 22nd, and the lowest price was 13015 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a maximum amplitude of 3.25%. But in fact, this period of natural rubber out of a similar unilateral upward trend, the market in the last ten days to small shocks.

New rubber output: latest monthly global rubber output data: according to the latest report released by ANRPC, the global natural rubber output increased by 1.3% to 910000 tons in March 2021. Among them, Thailand dropped by 10%, Indonesia by 2.8%, Vietnam by 12.5% and Malaysia by 44.9%. In March, global consumption of natural rubber increased by 7.4% to 1.234 million tons. Among them, China increased by 3.3%, India by 40.8%, Thailand by 8.4% and Malaysia by 3.4%. In April, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia rebounded, and the situation was grim. Thailand had begun a curfew, and India’s situation was so serious that it was out of control. Although the epidemic has increased the demand for the rubber market, the industrial environment of India, which accounts for nearly 8% of the rubber production, has been damaged. Not only the rubber output has been affected, but also the local demand for China’s rubber products has been seriously affected. The most important thing is that the out of control of the epidemic has led to global concerns about the future economic situation. Since mid April, the rubber market has rebounded, It’s not powerful. There was a shock in the middle, and then it went up slightly.

Downstream demand: data show that from February 18, the end of the Spring Festival holiday, to around the 25th of that month, bulk raw materials followed the crude oil and the related commodity market rose sharply, which boosted the enthusiasm of enterprises to resume work and production. The operating rate of tire enterprises quickly increased, and the tire production was at a high level in the past five years in the peak season of traditional sales in spring, By the first half of April, the operating rate remained high. However, since the middle and late ten days, the complex international situation and the serious epidemic situation in parts of Southeast Asia have doubled the concerns of enterprises about overseas market demand, weakened the market procurement demand, and reduced the operating rate of tire enterprises. It is understood that this is also the first decline in the operating rate of tire enterprises after the Spring Festival. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s production of rubber tire casing in March was 82.649 million, up 18.7% year on year. From January to March, the output of rubber tire casing increased by 46.8% over the same period last year to 214.716 million. According to the analysis, the April data may be different.

Import and export: from the perspective of China’s situation, according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 711000 tons in March 2021, an increase of 18.1% year on year. From January to March 2021, China imported 1.791 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 8% compared with 1.659 million tons in the same period of 2020. Thailand: in the first quarter of 2021, Thailand’s exports of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) totaled 870000 tons, up 11% year on year. Among them, the total export of standard gum was 383000 tons, up 17% year on year; The export volume of cigarette glue was 125000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; The export of latex was 351000 tons, up 12% year on year. Vietnam: according to the latest data, Vietnam exported 156000 tons of natural rubber in the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 56% over last year’s 100000 tons. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 101000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 37%; 18000 tons of cigarette glue were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 33%; Latex exports were 35000 tons, up 182% year on year. In the first quarter, Vietnam exported 257000 tons of mixed rubber, up 86% from 138000 tons last year. Among them, the mixed export of SVR3L was 78000 tons, up 105% year on year; The mixed export of svr10 was 176000 tons, up 87% year on year; The mixed export of RSS3 was 3000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 58%. Vietnam’s exports of natural rubber to China totaled 23000 tons, up 72% from 13000 tons last year.

Inventory: as of April 30, 2021, the natural rubber inventory in the previous period was 178192 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 176240 tons, with an increase of 650 tons and 2160 tons respectively; The inventory of No. 20 glue was 58422 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 56074 tons, increasing by 180 tons and 382 tons respectively; In the previous period, the natural rubber inventory and warehouse receipt increased significantly, and the 20 rubber inventory and warehouse receipt inventory also increased.

Tire price increase: Recently, Hubei outlets Tire Co., Ltd. issued a price increase notice: the price of some specifications of tires will be increased by 30-50 yuan on the basis of the original price, and the price of all tread patterns and agricultural tire series of some specifications will be increased by 2%. In fact, since October last year, price increase notices have been issued repeatedly. Olas tire said that the price rise again at the end of April, one is to remind dealers to pay close attention to stock up before the price rise, the other is the side reaction of the rising tide of tire enterprises, the afterglow is still there, and it is preliminarily judged that there will be no possibility of price reduction in a short period of time. In fact, the analysis shows that the price of natural rubber is less than 14000 yuan / ton among the main raw material prices of tires in the near future. The price fluctuates slightly and rebounds from time to time. There is no big rising market, and the price of carbon black also shows a downward trend. The biggest driving factor for the tire price increase this time is the sharp rise in the price of steel. As shown in Figure 3, the price of iron and steel industry has risen sharply in the past year

Figure 3: trend chart of steel industry index from April 2020 to April 2021

On April 30, the steel index was 1365 points, up 2 points from yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 176.88% from the lowest 493 points on December 20, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

About the future: according to the analysis of the business community, rubber tapping has begun in Southeast Asian rubber producing countries and China’s main producing areas, and there is a certain supply. Although it is not enough to have a great impact on the market, the impact on the market expectation has appeared. The difference is that the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia is serious, especially in India, In addition, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States and the complexity of the relationship between many countries and China have a certain interference on the future economic recovery. The start-up of downstream tire enterprises has been affected to a certain extent. It is expected that with the continuous increase of new rubber supply, natural rubber will be more likely to weaken in the future.