According to the data monitored by the business community (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on July 16, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 9050 yuan / ton, up 0.56% from 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 0.69% month on month, and up 37.43% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the PVC market leveled first and then rose, but there was little fluctuation. The daily adjustment range of enterprises was about 50-100 yuan / ton, continuing to run at a high level. At the beginning of the week, the PVC market was relatively stable. In the middle and late of the week, the futures price fluctuated frequently, reaching 9270 at one time, driving the spot price up slightly. Recently, due to the limited electricity policy, the price of raw calcium carbide has risen to 5000 yuan / ton due to tight supply, and there is still an expectation of an increase. Some PVC plants may be affected and run at reduced load. At the same time, some enterprises have maintenance plans, which is good for the rising price of PVC. But at present, the off-season demand follow-up is general, and the trading atmosphere of high price PVC is general. Therefore, although there is a positive boost, the rise rate is limited.
In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 9000-9300 yuan / ton. Pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou area is 9120-9250 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Shanghai is 9150-9250 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC in Guangzhou is 9180-9270 yuan / ton; The market fluctuated slightly.
In terms of futures, futures prices continue to rebound and rise, driving the price trend of the spot market. On July 16, v2109 contract opened at 9120, the highest price was 9335, the lowest price was 9070, and the closing price was 9280, up 260, or 2.88%.
For external price, Taiwan Formosa Plastics Co., Ltd. of China issued a new shipping schedule quotation in August, with CFR India down 60 to 1330 US dollars / ton, CFR China down 30 to 1200-1210 US dollars / ton, FOB Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia down 50 to 1190-1200 US dollars / ton, and FOB Northeast Asia to Vietnam down 10 to 1200 US dollars / ton,
region technology 7 / 16 (yuan / ton) 7 / 1 (yuan / ton) Up and down remarks
East China Calcium carbide process 9110-9350 9030-9010 + 80/+240 Delivery
south China Calcium carbide process 9180-9400 9080-9150 + 100/+250 Delivery
North China Calcium carbide process 9030-9170 8930-9010 + 100/+160 To
southwest Calcium carbide process 9100-9200 8950-9100 + 150/+100 To
For international crude oil, on July 15, the international oil price continued the trend of the previous trading day and continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was 71.65 US dollars / barrel, down 1.48 US dollars or 2.2%, while the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was 73.47 US dollars / barrel, down 1.29 US dollars or 1.7%. US oil reached its lowest closing price in nearly a month after OPEC + and OPEC + reached an agreement on increasing production. The bad news caused by the effect of increasing production is still fermenting, and the worry caused by the virus mutation of the epidemic has deepened the decline of oil prices.
Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fluctuated recently, showing an overall upward trend. On July 14, the price was US $1037.00/ton, and on July 16, the average price of ethylene was US $1048.75/ton, up 1.13%. The current price is down 1.89% month on month, and the current price is up 41.39% compared with last year. At present, crude oil: inventory growth, the market for crude oil market is not optimistic, so business community data analysts expect ethylene price will fall next.
On July 16, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose. The price of orchid charcoal in the upper reaches was high and the cost support was good. The PVC market in the lower reaches rose slightly and the demand for calcium carbide increased. In the future, calcium carbide rose slightly, and a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia began, calcium carbide production decreased, and supply exceeded demand.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts from business news agency believe that at present, the price of raw material calcium carbide is limited by electricity, and the supporting force of cost is gradually strengthened. In addition, the rebound of futures has boosted the price of PVC. However, the off-season effect is still there, so the sharp rise of PVC is restrained, and the resistance of downstream is still there. In the short term, the PVC market is playing a long and short game, and the price may continue to rise slightly, but the increase is limited, The idea of shock operation remains unchanged.
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