According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of August 18, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 9533 yuan / ton. Compared with August 16 (the reference price of butanone was 9433 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 133 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.09% during the week.

At the beginning of this week, on the 16th, some domestic butanone factories raised the ex factory price of butanone slightly. The quotation of butanone in different secondary markets in Shandong also increased sporadically, with an overall increase of 100-300 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of butanone in Shandong is around 9400-9800 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotation is around 10000 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, in mid August, I heard that the main butanone factories had equipment maintenance plans, the overall operating rate of butanone decreased, the supply of butanone in the yard also decreased, and the low inventory still supported butanone. However, in terms of demand, the boost of downstream demand is not obvious, and the market transactions remain cold, mostly just demand. Therefore, the butanone market has not continued to increase significantly since the slight rise at the beginning of the week. At present, up to the middle of this week, the butanone market as a whole has maintained a stable consolidation operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the actual transaction. As of August 18, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 9533 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of this week, the average price increased by 100 yuan / ton, and the average price of butanone increased slightly by 1.09% during the week.

Upstream, in August, the price of domestic liquefied gas continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on August 12, the average price of civil gas in Shandong exceeded 5000 yuan / ton, with a reference of 5016.67 yuan / ton, and then the overall market operated at a high level. On August 17, the liquefied gas market in Shandong decreased slightly. On August 17, the reference price of liquefied gas was 4850 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.59% compared with August 1 (4550 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of butanone

At present, although the support of butanone supply is acceptable, due to the continuous shortage of demand, the action force of butanone market in the future is slightly insufficient. Butanone analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly be consolidated and operated.

Cobalt prices fell in August

According to the data monitoring of business society, the cobalt Market failed to continue the rising market in July in August, the cobalt price fell continuously in August, and the cobalt market continued to decline. As of August 17, the cobalt price was 362333.34 yuan / ton, down 3.72% from 376333.34 yuan / ton on August 1.

New energy vehicles hit a new high and the “ternary” battery gradually shrinks

According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, in July, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 284000 and 271000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times and 1.6 times respectively. From January to July, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.504 million and 1.478 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 2 times. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to refresh the historical record; Correspondingly, the growth of ternary battery slowed down and the installed capacity contracted.

According to the monthly data of power battery released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance in July: in terms of output, in July 2021, the output of ternary battery was 8.0gwh, accounting for 46.0% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 144.0% and a month on month increase of 8.6%; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 9.3gwh, accounting for 53.8% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 236.2% and a month on month increase of 20.0%. In terms of loading volume, in July 2021, a total of 5.5gwh of ternary batteries were loaded, with a year-on-year increase of 67.5% and a month on month decrease of 8.2%; Lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded with a total of 5.8gwh, a year-on-year increase of 235.5% and a month on month increase of 13.4%. It can be seen from the statistical data of battery output and installed capacity that the output of ternary battery maintained a high-speed growth, but the installed capacity of ternary battery decreased month on month, and the market performance of ternary battery was poor in July; The corresponding output and loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery increased sharply month on month, and the increase was much higher than that of ternary battery. The market share of ternary battery gradually shrinks, and the demand for cobalt in the future market is expected to decline.

Growth of mobile phone market slows down

According to the latest data from China’s National Bureau of statistics, the domestic mobile phone production in June was 143224000, up 2.9% year-on-year. According to the data released by the China Academy of communications and communications, in July, the shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market was 28.676 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%. From January to July, the domestic market shipped 203 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. Mobile phone production maintained growth, but the increase decreased, and the rise of the mobile phone market slowed down. The mobile phone market slowed down, and the future demand growth of cobalt Market slowed down.

According to the monthly market data of market research company counterpoint, the sales volume of smart phones in China decreased by 13% to 75 million in the second quarter of 2021, and the sales volume in the second quarter also decreased by 6% year-on-year. The sales volume in the second quarter of 2021 was the lowest since 2012. Samsung sales data show that Samsung’s smartphone shipments from April to June fell to about 59 million from about 76 million in the first quarter. Samsung’s smartphone shipments were affected by the epidemic in the second quarter, the decline in smartphone demand from India and the tight supply of some mobile processors. In the second quarter, the sales volume hit a record low, the demand of mobile phone market decreased, and the demand of cobalt Market in the future is expected to decline.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the new energy vehicle market has risen sharply, and the demand of cobalt market has increased, but the installed capacity of ternary battery has declined, and the demand of cobalt market is lower than expected. In the mobile phone market, the domestic mobile phone sales hit a record low in the second quarter. The future production enthusiasm of mobile phone manufacturers declined, the orders for cobalt lithium batteries decreased, the shipments of Samsung mobile phones fell sharply, the global mobile phone sales declined, the production enthusiasm of the global mobile phone market declined, and the demand of the global cobalt market declined. Overall, the demand of cobalt market grew slowly, but it was far lower than the market expectation. The rising power of cobalt market was insufficient, and the downward pressure of cobalt price increased. The cost of cobalt ore is affected by the growth of transportation cost, so there is limited room for the decline of cobalt price, and the long-term new energy market is growing rapidly. The future demand of cobalt market is bullish. It is expected that the future cobalt price will fluctuate and adjust in the range of 350000-400000 yuan / ton.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (August 16): 2740.00 yuan / ton

On August 16, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong fell by 60 yuan / ton, or 2.14%, compared with the quotation on August 13, and increased by 52.50% year-on-year over the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have fallen slightly recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of demand: the transaction is mainly just needed, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, the early maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the daily output has increased. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2700 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber market rebounded slightly this week (8.9-8.13). At the beginning of the week, the price was 14210 yuan / ton, and as of August 13, the price was 14290 yuan / ton, with an overall slight rebound of 0.56%.

This week (8.9-8.13), the domestic butadiene rubber market rebounded slightly, and only the ex factory price of CNPC northeast increased by 100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business society, as of August 13, the ex warehouse pricing of Daqing Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 14000 yuan / ton; The merchant’s offer has increased by 50 ~ 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. According to the business agency, the mainstream price in Shunding market such as Daqing, Qilu and Yanshan is around 14100 ~ 14600 yuan / ton.

Since August, the start-up of polybutadiene rubber has decreased slightly. According to the business society, the Shunding unit of Qilu Petrochemical is shut down for maintenance; Temporary shutdown of Yantai Haopu Shunding plant.

Butadiene, the raw material, has pulled back from its high level since late July and continued to fall this week, with weak cost support. According to the monitoring of business society, as of August 13, the price of butadiene was 10697 yuan / ton, down 3.65% from 11102 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The price of natural rubber fluctuated in a narrow range. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 13, the price of domestic natural rubber was 13250 yuan / ton, rebounding from late July.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that although the price of raw materials has fallen, the start-up of CIS polybutadiene rubber has decreased and the supply pressure has decreased. It is expected that CIS polybutadiene rubber will be stable in the later stage.

The price of acetic anhydride stopped falling and rose again

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic anhydride plummeted in July. Since late July, affected by rainstorm and maintenance of acetic acid enterprises, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased and the price of acetic anhydride has risen again. As of August 12, the price of acetic anhydride was 10000.00 yuan / ton, up 2.83% from 9725.00 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month.

Rising raw material costs

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the decline of acetic acid stopped and picked up in August, and the price of acetic acid rose slightly. In late July, affected by the rainstorm, the operation of acetic acid enterprises in Henan was basically normal, but the transportation was limited and the price of acetic acid increased; In August, many acetic acid enterprises entered the maintenance period, and at the same time, in response to the needs of epidemic prevention and control, as of August 12, the entrances and exits of 93 expressway toll stations in Nanjing, Huai’an, Yangzhou, Taizhou, Nantong, Suzhou, Xuzhou, Zhenjiang, Lianyungang and other regions of Jiangsu Province had been temporarily closed one-way or two-way. All regions in China have correspondingly strengthened transportation restrictions and management. Transportation restrictions and enterprise maintenance have a dual impact. The regional changes of acetic acid market are different, and the overall acetic acid price fluctuates and rises.

Market overview and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, believes that the limited transportation of acetic acid Market in August accumulated the impact of enterprise maintenance, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose again, and the price of acetic anhydride rose in response. Overall, the recent acetic acid market is strong, and the price of acetic anhydride is expected to rise. In the long run, with the increase of acetic acid enterprises, the price of acetic acid is expected to decline, and the cost of acetic anhydride is expected to decline. The high price acetic anhydride of downstream customers is more resistant, and the price of acetic anhydride is more bearish in the long run.