Cobalt prices fell in August
According to the data monitoring of business society, the cobalt Market failed to continue the rising market in July in August, the cobalt price fell continuously in August, and the cobalt market continued to decline. As of August 17, the cobalt price was 362333.34 yuan / ton, down 3.72% from 376333.34 yuan / ton on August 1.
New energy vehicles hit a new high and the “ternary” battery gradually shrinks
According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, in July, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 284000 and 271000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times and 1.6 times respectively. From January to July, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.504 million and 1.478 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 2 times. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to refresh the historical record; Correspondingly, the growth of ternary battery slowed down and the installed capacity contracted.
According to the monthly data of power battery released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance in July: in terms of output, in July 2021, the output of ternary battery was 8.0gwh, accounting for 46.0% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 144.0% and a month on month increase of 8.6%; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 9.3gwh, accounting for 53.8% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 236.2% and a month on month increase of 20.0%. In terms of loading volume, in July 2021, a total of 5.5gwh of ternary batteries were loaded, with a year-on-year increase of 67.5% and a month on month decrease of 8.2%; Lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded with a total of 5.8gwh, a year-on-year increase of 235.5% and a month on month increase of 13.4%. It can be seen from the statistical data of battery output and installed capacity that the output of ternary battery maintained a high-speed growth, but the installed capacity of ternary battery decreased month on month, and the market performance of ternary battery was poor in July; The corresponding output and loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery increased sharply month on month, and the increase was much higher than that of ternary battery. The market share of ternary battery gradually shrinks, and the demand for cobalt in the future market is expected to decline.
Growth of mobile phone market slows down
According to the latest data from China’s National Bureau of statistics, the domestic mobile phone production in June was 143224000, up 2.9% year-on-year. According to the data released by the China Academy of communications and communications, in July, the shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market was 28.676 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%. From January to July, the domestic market shipped 203 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. Mobile phone production maintained growth, but the increase decreased, and the rise of the mobile phone market slowed down. The mobile phone market slowed down, and the future demand growth of cobalt Market slowed down.
According to the monthly market data of market research company counterpoint, the sales volume of smart phones in China decreased by 13% to 75 million in the second quarter of 2021, and the sales volume in the second quarter also decreased by 6% year-on-year. The sales volume in the second quarter of 2021 was the lowest since 2012. Samsung sales data show that Samsung’s smartphone shipments from April to June fell to about 59 million from about 76 million in the first quarter. Samsung’s smartphone shipments were affected by the epidemic in the second quarter, the decline in smartphone demand from India and the tight supply of some mobile processors. In the second quarter, the sales volume hit a record low, the demand of mobile phone market decreased, and the demand of cobalt Market in the future is expected to decline.
Market Overview
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the new energy vehicle market has risen sharply, and the demand of cobalt market has increased, but the installed capacity of ternary battery has declined, and the demand of cobalt market is lower than expected. In the mobile phone market, the domestic mobile phone sales hit a record low in the second quarter. The future production enthusiasm of mobile phone manufacturers declined, the orders for cobalt lithium batteries decreased, the shipments of Samsung mobile phones fell sharply, the global mobile phone sales declined, the production enthusiasm of the global mobile phone market declined, and the demand of the global cobalt market declined. Overall, the demand of cobalt market grew slowly, but it was far lower than the market expectation. The rising power of cobalt market was insufficient, and the downward pressure of cobalt price increased. The cost of cobalt ore is affected by the growth of transportation cost, so there is limited room for the decline of cobalt price, and the long-term new energy market is growing rapidly. The future demand of cobalt market is bullish. It is expected that the future cobalt price will fluctuate and adjust in the range of 350000-400000 yuan / ton.
| PVA |