In the past month, the overall domestic general plastics showed a continuous downward trend, and the market could not escape the traditional off-season vortex. According to the data monitoring of the business society, the general plastics index was 942 points on June 17 and 989 points on May 17, down 47 points in recent months, down 15.44% from the highest point 1114 points (December 12, 2013) in the cycle, and up 44.26% from the lowest point 653 points on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now). LDPE, EPS, LLDPE and PP in the spot market fell by more than 5%, and other general plastic products also fell to varying degrees.

Plastic market is dominated by bad factors, five general plastic products appear collective decline market. The off-season factor is one of the main reasons. Because the five general plastic products are in the traditional off-season, the demand of end users is shrinking, the operating rate of downstream factories is low, and the shipping resistance of enterprises and businesses is increasing. On the supply side, there are not many enterprises engaged in the maintenance of plastic products, the market supply has increased, and the contradiction between supply and demand is obvious. The second is the raw material market. Although the international crude oil fluctuated and went up in recent January, the upstream commodities such as propylene, ethylene and styrene were in a downward trend due to the bad effect of insufficient gas purchase in the spot market and weak trading atmosphere, and the support of market shaping cost was weakened. Finally, the futures market, PE, PP and PVC futures markets have been significantly weakened recently, affecting the mentality of the spot market. At present, the superposition of negative factors leads to the downward shift of the five major products. Let’s take a look at the recent market of five general plastic products

The contradiction between supply and demand is obvious, the PE market continues to be weak, and the whole market is downward

In June, the overall trend of PE continued to be weak, and the spot three varieties all fell to varying degrees. Among them, LLDPE and LDPE fell more obviously, LLDPE has dropped to below 8000 yuan / ton, HDPE has remained stable on the whole, and some of them have gone down. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is weak. 9 PE spot market, petrochemical enterprises collectively cut the ex factory price, drag down the market trading atmosphere. LLDPE and LDPE dropped significantly, while HDPE market dropped partially. Even plastic futures market shocks fell, to the spot market to bring limited positive. On the supply side, new production capacity was put into production one after another. In terms of demand, it is currently in the off-season of traditional production of agricultural film, the operating rate of downstream enterprises is low, the pipe and packaging film are also in the off-season, the performance of rigid demand is weak, the receiving intention is not high, multi-dimensional hold on demand replenishment, and the market transaction atmosphere is difficult to improve significantly. The attitude of the merchants is empty, and they mainly follow the offer of profit, and focus on a single discussion on the firm offer.

Business community PE analysts believe that although the current inventory of the two oil has declined, even plastic futures market has stopped falling and rising, which has brought short-term support to the market. However, the new production capacity has been put into production one after another, and the downstream agricultural film, pipe and packaging film are in the traditional off-season. The relatively weak demand still brings obvious constraints to the market. The market weakness is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the PE spot market will continue to weaken in the short term.

Demand side low PP continued weak market in early June

In the first ten days of June, the PP market fluctuated downward, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of June 10, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders was around 8300.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.41% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 6.87% compared with the same period last year. Last month, the average operating rate of the industry rebounded, coupled with the off-season of traditional demand, the consumption of terminal enterprises declined. In the first ten days of this month, the domestic market continued the previous pattern. Although power rationing affected production in some regions, the overall supply pressure did not improve. This year’s new production line production involves more production capacity, and the medium and long-term expansion of production capacity is a blow to market confidence. In addition, the recent decline of RMB exchange rate has formed a certain resistance to polypropylene export, aggravating the contradiction between domestic supply and demand. The lower reaches are still resistant to high price goods, and the momentum of off-season trading is insufficient. The market is generally short, and petrochemical plants generally reduce the ex factory price.

Business community PP analysts believe that in early June, the domestic polypropylene market was volatile and fell. The current market is still in the traditional off-season demand, low consumption. The end users have strong resistance to the high price of goods, the goods preparation is rigid, and they need to operate carefully, and the actual trading volume is small. In the year of rapid growth of PP production capacity, the medium and long-term supply side bad news is gradually released, and multiple factors amplify the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry. Crude oil and propylene in the upstream of the industrial chain are stronger and better expected. The current market support mainly comes from the upstream. It is expected that PP price will remain weak in the near future.

Entering the off-season, PVC market price gradually declines

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the PVC market continued to weaken. On the 17th, the futures price fell by more than 2%, driving the spot price trend. The enterprises reduced the price by about 50-100 yuan / ton within the day, and the quotations were mostly in the range of 9150-9250 yuan / ton. The prices of various places were reduced by different ranges, and the overall focus moved down slightly, but the price was still on the high side. Recently, the price of raw calcium carbide has risen by 12% in June, and the cost support is gradually strong, so it is difficult for PVC to fall sharply. However, as the downstream enters the off-season, and the export volume shrinks, the demand side is expected to weaken. In addition, there are not many PVC plant maintenance enterprises in June, and the supply is gradually increasing, so the support is weakened. At present, most of the operators are in a wait-and-see situation. The lower reaches continue to maintain the purchase of just needed goods, and the goods holders give up the profits to deliver goods. There is a certain space for negotiation. In the short term, the PVC market is relatively sticky, the price fluctuates mainly in a narrow range, and the future market is facing a downward trend.

Business community PVC analysts believe that after the festival, PVC market continued to weaken, supported by the cost side, PVC deep drop will not be strong. With the downstream entering the off-season, the demand side is expected to weaken, and it is expected that the PVC market will fluctuate in the short term, and the price may continue to decline.

Terminal demand shrinks, ABS off-season market continues

In early June, the price of ABS cost side was mixed, and the overall support for ABS cost side was general. Of course, the production equipment maintenance plan and start-up and return to work are intertwined, which has limited impact on the supply side. In the off-season of traditional consumption, the demand shortage of ABS is difficult to open, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is lower. Downstream enterprises follow up the downsizing, and tend to buy up but not down. The market as a whole is short and the offer is weak.

Business community ABS analysts believe that the ABS spot market in early June was weak and volatile, and the spot price was generally down. The trend of raw materials is mixed, and the support of ABS cost side is general. At present, it is the off-season of ABS industry, the demand of end users is shrinking, and the shipping resistance of enterprises and businesses is increasing. It is expected that the ABS spot market may continue to be short in the near future.

Lower PS price in upstream

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10600 yuan / ton on June 14, and 10533 yuan / ton on June 18. During this period, the price dropped by 0.63%, up 30.04% compared with the same period last year. Domestic PS market through benzene high consolidation, benzene soft mainly, the range of 50-300 yuan / ton. PS factory price down, as well as the impact of power rationing in South China, businesses are more willing to reduce prices and ship. The queuing time of ordinary benzene delivery is about one week, and the pressure of benzene delivery is slightly higher. The terminal just needs to purchase, the raw material styrene rebounded at the beginning of the week, the merchants exchanged the price for the quantity, and the low delivery situation improved.

Business community PS analysts believe that the overall impact of the current PS start to improve, the market is expected to increase supply significantly, it is expected that the PS market next week or narrow consolidation, part of the rise.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province rose this week, from 226.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 230.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.47%, a year-on-year decrease of 30.30%. Overall, the hydrochloric acid market rose this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index at 60.53 on June 11.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream procurement is weak

From the manufacturers’ quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid market manufacturers’ quotation rose, the overall market is general. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; At the end of the week, the price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wenshui was 230 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid at the weekend is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 160 yuan / ton over the weekend, up 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the downstream ammonium chloride market price is high, which has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. The difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

Future forecast

In recent years, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, the cost support is general, the market of ammonium chloride in the downstream is high, and the purchasing intention in the downstream is not strong. Business community analysts believe that hydrochloric acid in the recent small shocks.

WTI and Brent crude oil prices both rose above the $70 mark, which is good for the market mentality. Near the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the downstream gasoline merchants prepare the goods in advance. According to business news agency data, as of June 11, the price of MTBE was 6150 yuan / ton, up 3.65% month on month and 53.11% year on year.

MTBE market rose this week compared with last week, with an increase of about 50-300 yuan / ton. In Shandong Province, the recent inflow of goods from Northeast China is limited, and the export sales of main refineries in Shandong Province are limited. In addition, some downstream refineries purchase moderately, and the merchants actively push up the price, so the price rises to 6000 yuan / ton again. Supported by the sustained rise of Shandong, North China and Northeast China actively followed the rise. The southern market, boosted by the continued rise of the northern market, saw a slight rise in business.

In terms of external market, as of June 10, the closing price of Asian MTBE market was down by US $6.5/t compared with the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at US $742.5-744.5/t. The closing price of MTBE market in Europe increased by US $3 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $775.5-776 / T. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States increased by US $3.44/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf offshore price closed at US $775.25-775.6/ton (218.38-218.48 cents / gallon).

region ., Country, closing price, rise and fall

Asia FOB Singapore 742.5-744.5 USD / T – US $6.5/t

U.S.A FOB Bay 775.25-775.6 USD / T US $3.44/t

Europe FOB ARA 775.5-776 USD / T US $3 / T

Near the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the downstream gasoline merchants prepare the goods in advance. MTBE analysts of business news agency believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block data list, the average price of domestic hips on June 11 was 12700 yuan / ton, down 1.8% from the beginning of the week, 4.03% from the beginning of the month, and 9.29% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of hips market continued to weaken and the center of gravity moved down. Recently, raw material styrene has been running weakly, and the cost support has gradually declined. In addition, the downstream demand has not improved, and there is still a need to purchase just before the festival, and there is no obvious large-scale volume. The shippers are looking for the good by reducing the price and shipping. However, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is relatively light, which leads to the downward adjustment of hips price and the downward trend of GPPS price. On the whole, the PS market is running weakly. Up to now, the mainstream price of hips is around 12300-13400 yuan / ton, the reference price of Guangzhou Petrochemical 660 is 12400 yuan / ton, the reference price of Zhanjiang Zhongmei 990 is 12300 yuan / ton, the reference price of Shanghai Secco 622 is 13400 yuan / ton, and the reference price of CITIC Guoan 688 is 13000 yuan / ton.

In the international crude oil market, on June 10, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $70.29/barrel, up 0.33 US dollars or 0.5%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 72.52 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.30 U.S. dollars or 0.4%. The US economic data released on Thursday showed positive results. The number of unemployed Americans in the United States dropped to the lowest level since the first wave of COVID-19 last year. The confidence of the market in anticipation of economic recovery boosted oil prices.

In terms of raw materials, the Styrene Market in North China continued to fall on June 11. Qingdao refinery and Qilu Petrochemical quoted 8950 yuan / ton today. On the cost side, crude oil continued to be strong, and the price of pure benzene fell. The maintenance unit of pure benzene has been restarted, and the supply has rebounded, but the low inventory level will continue, and the gap between supply and demand will remain. In the short term, the price of pure benzene and pure benzene is relatively strong. At present, the futures and spot price of styrene has fallen to near the cash flow, and the cost side has become the main support point. Styrene is expected to weaken in the short term. We still need to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and pure benzene, plant dynamics and downstream demand changes.

3、 Future forecast

According to the business news agency, recently, the support of the cost side has gradually declined. Just before the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream still needs to purchase, and there is no obvious large volume. The cost and demand are both weak, and the shippers give up profits to ship. It is expected that the hips market will be hard to find in the short term, or it may be further reduced.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market fluctuated in early June, and the spot prices of various brands fluctuated. As of June 10, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 39500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.25% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 110.11% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

Upstream adipic acid, since the domestic spot price fell sharply last month, adipic acid market was in a horizontal stalemate in the first ten days of this month. Under the influence of relatively weak demand, the price lost its direction. In terms of operating rate, adipic acid enterprises maintain a high load, enterprise inventory gradually increases, and supply pressure time may be prolonged. It is expected that the price of adipic acid is easy to fall but difficult to rise, and the stalemate may continue in the short term.

Adipic acid raw materials run sideways, PA66 cost side support still exist, the recent PA66 market continued to supply and demand two weak pattern and narrow volatility. The overall operating rate of domestic PA66 industry is still not high, and some devices of Henan Shenma and other enterprises are still under maintenance. On site cost support and supply side support are still in place, but it is in the off-season of the rubber and plastic industry, the end-user consumption is shrinking, and the purchasing power is insufficient. In addition, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the high price source of goods is contradicted, and the merchants’ shipment follows the market, and the negotiation is loose. I heard that the recent inquiries are limited, the actual orders are mainly small, and the market atmosphere is not active.

Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency said: in early June, the dual pressure pattern of high cost and shipping resistance in domestic PA66 market did not improve, and the profit situation of polymerization enterprises and end users was poor. Low consumption in the off-season, weak market atmosphere, weak supply and demand, weakening production capacity loss and upstream cost support. PA66 market is expected to continue weak trend in the short term.