According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose, the price of PR nd Series in China rose, while the price of heavy rare earth market remained high. According to the index of rare earth plate of business agency, the rare earth index on July 14 was 524, up 3 points from yesterday, down 47.60% from the highest point 1000 in the week (2011-12-06), It was 93.36% higher than the 271 point of the lowest point on September 13, 2015（ Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present).

It can be seen clearly from the rare earth index chart that the domestic rare earth price has risen since July, and the main commodity prices in the rare earth market have increased to varying degrees in recent years, and the trend of rare earth market has improved. See the product as follows:

It can be seen clearly from the product price trend chart that the prices of mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, neodymium metal, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium alloy, praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal have gradually increased. As of July 15, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth is 5375000 yuan / ton; The price of neodymium metal is 660000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 5425000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium nd alloy is 6675000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium is 700000 yuan / ton; Praseodymium oxide price is 5725000 yuan / ton, and all products have increased to different degrees. In July, the market trend of domestic light rare earth market gradually increased, and the market situation improved.

The domestic rare earth market continues to rise, the supply and demand structure turns to a large turning point, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is large, and the profit space of the rare earth industry chain is open. Recently, China’s rare earth quota at the supply end may steadily increase, supply rigidity is optimized, and new energy efficiency standards are implemented. The penetration rate of NdFeB in domestic household appliances variable frequency air conditioning will continue to increase, and the demand end is expected to continue to rise. New energy vehicles are selling normally, and demand for rare earth is at a high level. The main rare earth materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide. They are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy saving, frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional automobiles and other fields. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are still good. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in may2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to complete 2.24 million vehicles, a 2.1% decrease on a month-on-year basis, an increase of 0.5% year on year; From January to may, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 10.951 million, an increase of 37.6% year-on-year. How much lower demand has increased in recent years, and the price of light rare earth market continues to rise.

According to the trend chart, the price trend of dysprosium system in China is relatively stable, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.475 million yuan / ton as of the 15th day; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.45 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal is 3.31 million yuan / ton, the domestic price of terbium system is correspondingly higher, the price of terbium oxide in China is 7 million yuan / ton, and the price of terbium metal is 8.725 million yuan / ton. The domestic rare earth market has improved, leading magnetic material plants continue to expand, and the demand for replenishment of the warehouse makes the price of the domestic heavy rare earth market rise. In addition, Myanmar forbids export. The global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas next to the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on domestic heavy rare earth market products, with a large reduction in imported goods sources, general supply of heavy rare earth market in the site, positive downstream procurement in recent years, and rising market price.

The recent notice on the implementation of industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021 emphasizes comprehensive sorting and investigation of key industry enterprises such as steel, nonferrous metal smelting, petrochemical industry and building materials, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption limit standards of unit products, and finally fully covers energy conservation supervision of key industry enterprises during the “14th five year plan”. In addition, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology last week, said at the video conference on industrial and information system industry policies and regulations, that he would focus on optimizing the development environment of industry enterprises, accelerate the promotion of legislation on telecommunication law and promote the promulgation of the rare earth regulations as soon as possible. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the government’s strengthening of the management and control of the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the overall demand for rare earth products is still acceptable, the demand of downstream has increased in recent years, and the phenomenon of replenishment of the warehouse is frequent, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and frequency conversion air conditioning downstream of rare earth, the demand side continues, and the domestic rare earth supply is normal, the recent on-site transactions increase and the purchase is positive. Chenling, an analyst at business society, expects the market price of rare earth to maintain a rise in the later period.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of July 14, the average price of melamine enterprises was 12200 yuan / ton, up 4.87% compared with the price at the beginning of the week, up 12.96% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and up 18.06% compared with the price on June 14.

The overall trend of melamine market rose in June, with a monthly increase of 18.38%. In July, the market was mainly stable, and the price continued to rise at the beginning of this week. Recently, the spot supply is tight, the market is rising, the factory controls the delivery rhythm, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the enterprise makes high-end offers.

Upstream urea, Shandong urea market rose on July 14, 1.84% higher than the price at the beginning of the week. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is stable, and urea supply is tight.

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the upstream urea price is relatively strong, the cost impact is limited, the market supply is tight, and the price is supported. It is expected that the melamine market will be mainly strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell this week, from 2760.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2690.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.54%, up 63.36% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell this week, with the urea commodity index at 125.12 on July 9.

Upstream support strengthened, downstream demand slowed down and supply side was tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong fell this week. Urea in Yangmei plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2690 yuan / ton this weekend, down 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, from 3750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3993.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.49%, up 62.77% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal rose slightly, from 965.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 982.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.81%, up 64.85% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4450.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.38%, 44.32% over the same period last year. Melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose slightly this week, from 10833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62%.

In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the overall demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the urea plant maintenance is still the same, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily output is less than 160000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International: it is said that India will issue a new round of import bidding this month, which will boost the domestic market mentality. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.

India standard boost, future price bullish

In the middle of July, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand in various regions has declined, but the industrial demand is not obviously positive, the urea supply is tight, and the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea. However, India may issue a new round of import bidding, which will boost the domestic market mentality, and the future market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9200 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 9166 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a drop of 0.36%.

At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; The domestic activated carbon market has not changed much, and the quotation is stable. With the flexibility of traders, the terminal demand has not changed significantly. The factory still purchases on demand to meet normal production, and the overall trading atmosphere is flat.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: the overall market of activated carbon market is mainly stable, and some offers are slightly down. It is expected that the activated carbon market will be mainly volatile in the short term.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde at the beginning of the week was 5700 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the week was 5666 yuan / ton, down 0.58%.

2、 Market analysis

On July 6, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 5700 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which was the same as last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 5400-5500 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax is 5900 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last time. Individual manufacturers were dragged down by the reduction of raw material methanol, and the price of paraformaldehyde followed the decline.

On July 7, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated at a low level, with the main contract ma2109 closing at 2562 yuan / ton, down 72 yuan / ton or 2.73% compared with the closing of the previous trading day. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 7, the average price of domestic methanol manufacturers in Shandong was 2540 yuan / ton, with a month on month drop of 1.45%.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material methanol is weak, and polyoxymethylene market demand is general. Polyoxymethylene analysts of business association predict that the price of polyoxymethylene may be reduced.