According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on December 17 was 40.45, an increase of 0.21 points compared with yesterday, a decrease of 59.55% compared with the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and an increase of 48.28% compared with the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period since 2011-09-01)
Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the first half of December 2021
According to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), the price of domestic natural rubber in China continued to fluctuate in the first half of December 2021, showing a “V” trend: the mainstream price on the 1st was about 13770 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 17th was about 13670 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.94%; among them, the highest price appeared at 13770 yuan / ton on the 1st, the lowest price was 13200 yuan / ton on the 9th, and the maximum amplitude in the half month was 3.33%.
On the macro level, the international crude oil fundamentals are in a long and short game. The Omicron strain still hinders the economic recovery. Recently, IEA’s expectation of excess crude oil supply continues to pressurize the oil price. However, OPEC + maintains a moderate increase in production policy, tight supply forms a strong support for the oil market, and the crude oil price may rise slightly.
On the supply side, China’s Yunnan production areas have stopped cutting one after another, and the rainfall weather in southern Thailand affects the output. With the reduction of China’s output, the global market has entered an annual tight supply period at the end of the year, and the support on the supply side has been strengthened. In terms of import and export, according to the data of the General Administration of customs, China imported 661000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in November 2021, down 7% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2020.
In the downstream, the tire factory started cautiously, focusing on controlling the inventory level. As of December 9, the operating rate of all steel tires was 64.26%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points month on month; The operating rate of semi steel tire was 63.77%, with a month on month increase of 1.6 percentage points; Domestic heavy truck sales continued to show weakness: according to the data, in November, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell 48000 vehicles of various types (the number of invoices) decreased by 10% month on month and 65% year-on-year. The data of commercial vehicles are weak: in November, China’s production and sales of commercial vehicles completed 353000 and 330000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 3.2% and 1.1% respectively; a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and 30.3% respectively, with a decrease of 5 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with October. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased by 18% and 17.6% year-on-year, with a decrease of 10 points Do not expand by 13.7 and 8.7 percentage points. The market demand for commercial vehicles in the second half of the year was weaker than that in the first half of the year. The finished products of tire enterprises accumulated again, and the cost increased significantly, resulting in a number of tire manufacturers continuously issuing price increase notices.
In terms of inventory, recently, the warehousing of large and medium-sized warehouses in Qingdao has decreased slightly month on month, the outbound has increased, and the local general trade inventory has accelerated to go to the warehouse week on month: on December 9, the inventory in the bonded area was 65200 tons, a decrease of 11000 tons compared with last week, a decrease of 1.66% month on month. The inventory outside the bonded area was 252800 tons, a decrease of 11000 tons compared with last week, a month on month decrease of 0.43%. The total inventory was 318000 tons, a decrease of 2200 tons compared with last week, a month on month decrease of 0.69%.
In terms of transportation, the freight industry is in a downturn, the export transportation cost of Thai Tianjiao is rising, the cabin is tight, the shipping schedule is delayed, and the arrival volume increases slowly.
Figure 4: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2021
Future forecast: it is expected that natural rubber will maintain a range shock trend in the short term, and pay attention to the progress of cutting cessation in China, rainfall in foreign production areas, as well as the operating rate and inventory of downstream factories.
