On October 8, the rare earth index was 602 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 39.80% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 122.14% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index is rising. The prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series are rising. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising by 1500 yuan / ton to 601500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is rising by 4000 yuan / ton to 742500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 640000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 627500 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 860000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal neodymium is 775000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide increased by 15000 yuan / ton to 2.72 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 20000 yuan / ton to 2.66 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium increased by 3.445 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market increased. The recent procurement was general, and the price trend of praseodymium neodymium series was stable. Recently, the price of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market increased, the price trend of terbium series increased, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, Myanmar banned exports, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market is expected to rise slightly in the later period.

Product Name: n-propanol

Latest price (September 30): 7733 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on September 30, the domestic n-propanol market generally operated stably. The average ex factory price of n-propanol was 7733 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. On the 30th, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market was general, the downstream demand stock volume was small, the quotation of the industry was mostly stable, and the market fundamentals were calm.

Future forecast: according to the continuous implementation of the current energy consumption dual control policy, the probability of a significant increase in the market demand for n-propanol in the short term is small. It is expected that in the short term, most of China’s domestic n-propanol market will continue to operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

Product Name: butanone

Latest price (September 30): 9033 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on September 30, the domestic butanone market rose slightly. The average ex factory price of butanone was 9033 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.37%. On the 30th, the butanone factory in Shandong raised the ex factory price of butanone slightly by 100 yuan / ton. The procurement intention of butanone downstream before the festival was basically ended, and the market trading atmosphere was general.

Future forecast: I heard that before the national day, the butanone plant in Ningbo was shut down for maintenance, and the market supply decreased. However, due to the fact that the downstream pre festival goods preparation was basically completed, it had little impact on the market trend. Under the condition that the butanone market inventory remained low after the festival, the butanone price is expected to rise after the festival. More attention should be paid to the follow-up of downstream demand.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (September 30): 1970.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur in East China was temporarily stable on the 30th. Refineries in various regions quoted prices according to their own shipments. The mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China of Sinopec was 1900-1990 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China is 1830-1890 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of sulfur and solid sulfur in Sinopec Shandong is 1950 yuan / ton. The inventory of refineries in various regions of China remains low, downstream traders purchase on demand, enterprise shipments are relatively stable, it is difficult to find low prices in the field, the high price of sulfur is strong, and the mentality of operators in the field is mainly wait-and-see.

Future forecast: at present, the domestic sulfur market is temporarily stable and wait-and-see. From the perspective of shipment, the refinery is mainly stable, the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is weak, the delivery of export orders is mainly, and the support for sulfur is weak. It is expected that the future sulfur market is temporarily stable and wait-and-see, and pay attention to the market transaction.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market rose in September, and the spot price was high. As of September 29, the average price offered by POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 19100 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.75% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of POM upstream formaldehyde, the market of formaldehyde in Shandong was strong and upward in September, and the operation of formaldehyde enterprises did not improve significantly, which continued to be low. At present, the upstream methanol market is high and the price remains high. In the second half of the month, the operating rate of the downstream plate plant continued to be low under the power restriction policy, the demand was general, the market negotiation atmosphere gradually cooled, and the formaldehyde market fluctuated and consolidated.

The trend of upstream formaldehyde is strong, the cost side support of POM is strong, and the high ex factory price of enterprises remains firm. In terms of industrial load, there were many polymerization plants with reduced maintenance burden this month, the operating rate was not high, Shenhua Ningmei stopped for short repair at the end of the month, and the market supply continued to be low. At the same time, there are few goods in the site, which is beneficial to the POM supply end. Tianye Chemical M90 quoted a reference price of about 18400 yuan / ton for negotiation. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 19300 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. The reference price of Shenhua Ningmei mc90 is about 18800 yuan / ton, and the cash is withdrawn by itself. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 19200 yuan / ton. The merchant’s holding volume continued to be low, and the high offer remained stable. However, there is resistance to high price goods in the downstream, especially the weak trading in the latter ten days, and the end-user’s goods taking operation is biased towards just demand.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose in September and the spot price was high at the end of the month. Upstream formaldehyde prices also strengthened, and POM cost support increased. The on-site supply fell due to the continuous low operating rate of the industry, and there was good at the supply end. However, in terms of demand, the willingness to receive goods is not high. Near the end of the month, the delivery of high-priced goods on the site is not smooth, and the delivery is cold. The market is weak in both supply and demand. It is expected that the POM market may turn into a weak operation in the short term.