441# silicon price trend

Price analysis of this month

Recently, the price of metal silicon has made rapid progress. On August 27, the average price of metal silicon in the domestic market still rose. As of the 27th, the national metal silicon quotation was 23700 yuan / ton, an increase of about 4100 yuan / ton or 21.38% over last Friday; It rose 20.23% month on month. According to the data analysis of business society, metal silicon has been in the rising channel in recent three months. Especially since August, metal silicon has jumped to a new high, with an increase of 8.38% in the first week, the most active increase at the end of the month and an increase of 15.89% in the last week.

In terms of index, the metal silicon commodity index on August 26 was 159.11, up 1.98 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 131.37% from the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Market analysis of this month

On the whole, silicon metal kept breaking new records in August. At the beginning of the month, the silicon plant was optimistic about the future market and had a strong willingness to support the price. The superposition of market sentiment stimulation promoted the continuous rise of silicon price; In the middle of the month, the supply of raw materials is tight, the South hydropower has not been effectively alleviated, and the merchants are reluctant to sell; At the end of the month, the silicon price soared and sat firmly at the 20000 mark, with an average daily rise of more than 1000 yuan.

Raw material side: thermal coal increased by nearly 30% compared with the previous month. This month, Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continued to suffer from limited production. Most silicon plants are facing the situation of insufficient power supply and difficult operation. There are also early warning conditions for the supply of each unit in Yili and Shihezi regions of Xinjiang; In addition, the process of safety rectification and resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is slow, the output has also decreased, and the operating rate is not high in some areas due to environmental protection inspection.

Demand side: according to the customs data, the metal silicon export in July 2021 totaled 62900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.7%, and the metal silicon export from January to July 2021 totaled 465700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%. The market price of organosilicon DMC has been raised for many times. On the 27th, the average price in the domestic market was 35166.67 yuan / ton. The high price “competitive sales” mode of organosilicon DMC also boosted the confidence of spot traders. Downstream customers are worried that the supply of metal silicon in the later stage is in short supply. Under the condition of existing profits, the downstream demand is strong and the tolerance of high silicon price is high.

Inventory side: the social inventory of metal silicon increased slightly, but the accumulated inventory was less than expected. According to the statistics of business society, the social inventory of Huangpu port, Kunming and Tianjin Port was 48000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared with last week, with a slow growth rate.

Future forecast

At present, the rising price of power coal has the most far-reaching impact on the production cost and supply capacity of metal silicon. The supply and demand of metal silicon is in a tight balance. However, the demand side reform in power supply leads to power restriction in the main producing areas, and the bad raw material cost may continue to affect the supply of metal silicon. In conclusion, the high price adjustment of metal silicon in the short term is the main.

Aluminum fluoride market rose

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose again this week, and the market of aluminum fluoride rose. As of August 26, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8866.67 yuan / ton, up 4.31% from 8666.67 yuan / ton on August 20 last weekend, and the price increased by 0.38% year-on-year.

Aluminum ingot prices hit a new high

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index was 115.15 on August 25, up 1.06 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 112.38% from the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). This week, the price of aluminum ingots rose for many consecutive days. On the 25th, the price of aluminum ingots reached a new high. This week, the price of aluminum ingots increased by 2.2%. The price of aluminum ingots reached a new high. The aluminum ingot market continued to be high, and the driving force for the rise of aluminum fluoride prices increased.

Hydrofluoric acid maintained an upward trend this week

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid increased slightly this week, and the hydrofluoric acid market maintained an upward trend. The price of hydrofluoric acid increased by 0.5% this week. The hydrofluoric acid market continued to rise, which increased the benefit to aluminum fluoride, and the cost of aluminum fluoride increased steadily.

Market overview and forecast

The aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business agency believes that this week, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the upstream of aluminum fluoride industry chain increased slightly, the hydrofluoric acid market operated strongly, the cost of aluminum fluoride increased, the price of aluminum ingot in the downstream reached a new high, and the aluminum fluoride industry chain operated strongly. Generally speaking, the upstream and downstream markets of the aluminum fluoride industry chain operate strongly, the rising power of aluminum fluoride increases, which stimulates the rise of aluminum fluoride price. The future aluminum ingot price is easy to rise but difficult to fall, the hydrofluoric acid market is still strong, and the aluminum fluoride market is strong. It is expected that the future aluminum fluoride market will operate strongly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1175 yuan / ton on August 16 and 1145 yuan / ton on August 22. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 2.55% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The operating rate of ammonium sulfate Market increased this week. The coking grade market is poor, and the enterprise slightly adjusts the price. The supply and demand of Hexian ammonium sulfate is balanced, and the downstream is purchased on demand, and the market is generally stable. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong was 1050-1150 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was 1050-1150 yuan / ton, and that in Shanxi was 1000-1050 yuan / ton.

The price of compound fertilizer fell steadily this week due to the weak raw material market and weak cost support. Some areas increased slightly. At present, the downstream of the compound fertilizer market mostly takes a wait-and-see attitude. The market of compound fertilizer is not optimistic in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the trend of raw materials.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that due to the weak domestic demand and tight supply of ammonium sulfate, the downstream demand is limited. Due to the limited positive factors, it is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be stable and adjusted in a narrow range in the short term. It is recommended to pay more attention to demand changes.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of August 24, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 9533 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on August 19. Compared with the price on August 1, the average price was increased by 367 yuan / ton, an increase of 4%.

Recently, the domestic butanone market is weak. Some new units in the butanone yard were shut down, but there was still no significant improvement in trading due to the weak performance of downstream demand. Most of the offers of butanone holders are based on the market, and some operators have short expectations for the future trend. Due to the limited transaction at high prices in South China, some butanone declined secretly, and the actual transaction has more room for negotiation. The market trend of butanone is still deadlocked. We should pay attention to the follow-up of actual orders. As of August 24, the ex factory price of butanone in Shandong is around 9400-9700 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is around 9500-9900 yuan / ton.

Upstream, recently, most of the domestic liquefied gas market ushered in a callback market, and the decline in Shandong civil gas market was more prominent, with a decline of nearly 5% in the week. The negative market factors this week were obvious. First, the international crude oil market was mainly lowered during the week, and the news was negative market mentality. Secondly, the civil price of liquefied gas has been continuously pushed up in the early stage, and the price has risen to a relatively high level. However, due to the influence of seasonal factors, the terminal demand is weak, the off-season has not passed, the demand side has not improved significantly, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, the enthusiasm for entering the market has obviously weakened, the manufacturers’ delivery is blocked, and the ex factory price has been reduced one after another to stimulate the downstream to enter the market, The shipping atmosphere did not improve significantly until the late part of the week, and the decline was narrower than that in the early part. However, the overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market this week is still weak.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, although the supply side of butanone is supported, due to the lack of downstream demand, it is unlikely that the market price of butanone will break the deadlock and move closer to the high end in the short term. Butanone analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the market of butanone will continue to be weak, and the price dragged down by demand may decline in a narrow range. In the future, we need to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (August 23): 280.00 yuan / ton

On August 23, the mixed price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong increased by 16.67 yuan / ton or 6.33% compared with the quotation on August 20. The market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid. The market situation of downstream white carbon black and ammonium chloride rises slightly, which brings certain benefits to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the maintenance of enterprises has increased recently, the supply of hydrochloric acid is tight, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. The by-product acid still impacts the market, and the shipment pressure of hydrochloric acid is large.

Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the quotation is about 300 yuan / ton.