According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the beginning of the month was 19360 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 20180 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.24% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 11.34%.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in December 2021, there were 35 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 19 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were chloroform (41.13%), lithium carbonate (37.11%) and dichloromethane (36.91%). A total of 62 commodities decreased month on month, and 40 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 38.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were melamine (- 40.08%), baking soda (- 29.05%) and butadiene (- 27.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 2.38%.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of December 30:

 

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 20200-20400 yuan / ton 20000 yuan / ton

East China 20200-20300 yuan / ton 20200 yuan / ton

South China 20200-20400 yuan / ton 20000-20200 yuan / ton

At the beginning of June, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to decline, and the monthly listing prices of major manufacturers were successively announced, all of which were reduced; The weekly guideline price of Shanghai factory has also been reduced, but the supply of goods is scarce. Mainstream dealers offer according to the market and negotiate shipment; End customers in the distribution market are approaching the end of the year, focusing on just needed procurement; Recently, the epidemic situation has been repeated, and the downstream industries affected in some regions have been suspended.

 

In the middle of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to be depressed, and rebounded slightly in the middle and late period, but the overall atmosphere was depressed.

 

In late June, the domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded slowly, the spot was tight, and the price was high in the short term. Weekly quotation, factory prices are increased, limited supply; Production enterprises deliver goods evenly, with slow delivery, slow filling of goods in the trade market, small incoming volume near the end of the year, and tight market supply; In addition, dealers are worried about the high settlement price at the end of the month, and the quotation of mainstream dealers is higher.

 

At the end of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to pick up, the weekly price of the factory continued to rise, and the limited supply was maintained; Some suppliers’ factories deliver goods evenly, and the filling of spot goods source is slow; Dealers have different attitudes. Mainstream dealers offer prices to maintain stability and negotiate shipment.

 

In terms of raw materials, styrene crude oil fell sharply this month, driving the decline of pure benzene. Crude oil and styrene in the main downstream fell broadly, which stimulated the negative impact on pure benzene. The decline of styrene price, the decrease of downstream demand and the increase of spot and forward supply of pure benzene are the main factors driving the decline of pure benzene price.

 

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The raw aniline Market stabilized first and then rose. The price at the beginning of the month was 9233 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9913 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.37%.

 

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

 

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

 

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.5 million T / a plant phase I stopped on November 27 for 45 days; Phase II will stop on December 11 for 45 days. The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF has a negative phenomenon this week; There is a maintenance plan in January 2022, and the specific time is unknown at present. Dongcao Ruian 80000 T / a unit operates normally.

 

In the future, the long and short factors are intertwined, and the business community aggregates MDI. Analysts expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly sorted out.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business agency, on December 31, the average p value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 4908.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 48.33 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

 

On December 30, the spot price in East China market rose, with an average price of 4830 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton from the beginning of this month, a decrease of 2.62%.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

PVA

In terms of inventory, as of December 30, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 664000 tons, a decrease of 19600 tons or 2.87% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 4800 tons or 0.73% compared with Monday. Continue the low inventory status.

 

Unit: one line of a 400000 ton syngas MEG unit in Inner Mongolia has been restarted today. It was previously stopped near the 10th. It is expected that another production line will be overhauled in the near future.

 

Ethylene glycol fluctuated at a low level this month. Oil demand is relatively stable, US crude oil is consolidated at a high level, coal prices are in a downward trend, and the lifting strength is not strong.. The contradiction between supply and demand of ethylene glycol is difficult to solve. The downstream polyester is in the off-season, and the terminal demand is light, which does not support the ethylene glycol market well. MEG supply increased. According to incomplete statistics, the total expected arrival of main terminals in East China from December 31 to January 5 is about 182500 tons, an increase over the previous statistical cycle.

 

3、 Forecast: Meg’s low shock market continues, so it is necessary to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

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On December 30, the rare earth index was 805 points, an increase of 1 point compared with yesterday, a decrease of 19.50% compared with the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and an increase of 197.05% compared with the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period since December 1, 2011).

 

The trend of domestic rare earth index is rising, the prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series are rising, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is rising by 1000 yuan / ton to 843500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal is rising by 1.03 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 875000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 925000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium and neodymium is rising by 5000 yuan / ton to 1.13 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 2.905 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.9 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium was 3.75 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market increased, and the recent procurement was general. The price of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market increased, the price of terbium series increased slightly, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and Myanmar banned export, The domestic rare earth market price is expected to rise slightly in the later period.

PVA

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

 

Latest price: 1760 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: the price of ammonium sulfate was stable on December 29, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. The market of ammonium sulfate is cold today, and there is no good news in the venue. Domestic and foreign demand is weakened, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude. In order to ensure the stability of shipments, some enterprises reduced their prices slightly.

 

Future forecast: the price of ammonium sulfate will fall in the short term.

PVA

Product Name: phosphate rock

 

Latest price (December 28): 680 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on December 28, the domestic phosphorus ore market was highly stable and operated. The average market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was 680 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. On the 28th, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plants in Guizhou was around 640-670 yuan / ton, the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plants was around 580-620 yuan / ton, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plants in Guangxi was around 630-680 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plants was around 570-630 yuan / ton. At present, the supply and demand of phosphate rock is relatively stable and the trading atmosphere is normal.

 

Future forecast: at present, the supply and demand in domestic phosphate rock yards tend to be stable, and the supply of phosphate rock in Guizhou and other regions is still dominated by contract old customers. Near the new year’s Day holiday, the quotation of the industry is high and stable. Phosphate ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will continue to operate at a high level and stably, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

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