On October 20, the domestic cobalt price fell

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell on October 20. As of October 20, the cobalt price was 400800 yuan / ton, down 0.55% from the cobalt price of 403000 yuan / ton on October 19 of the previous trading day; Compared with the price of 381600 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of cobalt increased by 5.03%. Cobalt prices fell on the 20th, and the rising power of cobalt market still exists.

Strike in South Africa or affect transportation in cobalt City

It is reported that South African industry and trade union officials said that the National Union of metal workers of South Africa (numsa) organized about 155000 members in the industry. After the deadlock in salary increase negotiations with employers and the failure of arbitration, South Africa’s largest engineering metal workers union launched an indefinite strike on October 5 to ask for a salary increase. The strike has not spread to the port and transportation industry for the time being, but the continuation of the strike is bound to affect other industries in South Africa, have a certain impact on the port and transportation in South Africa, or affect the transportation of cobalt raw materials.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business news agency, believes that the strike in South Africa has a certain impact on cobalt transportation, but the overall supply and demand of cobalt market is still in balance, the rising support of cobalt market is limited, the international cobalt price continues to rise slightly, the rising support of domestic cobalt price still exists, and it is expected that the cobalt price will rise slightly in the future.

On October 19, DOP prices were weak and stabilized

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price fell on October 19, and the rise of the DOP market slowed down. As of October 19, the DOP price was 12950.00 yuan / ton, down 1.71% from 13175.00 yuan / ton on October 18 of the previous trading day; Compared with the DOP price of 14650.00 yuan / ton on October 12, a decrease of 11.60%. On the 19th, DOP prices continued to decline, but the decline slowed down and the DOP market stabilized.

Raw material prices stabilize

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride rose in October, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise on the 19th, and the cost of DOP rose; After October 13, the price of isooctanol fell, and on October 19, the price of isooctanol continued to decline, but on October 19, the price of isooctanol decreased by 2.3%, the decline of isooctanol slowed down, and the cost of DOP decreased; The overall DOP market is stabilizing.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at business news agency, believes that the price of isooctanol fell. On the 19th, the decline of isooctanol slowed down, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the driving force of DOP rise still exists, the cost of DOP remains high, and the space for DOP decline is limited; The decline of downstream PVC market slowed down, DOP demand stabilized, and the downward pressure of DOP weakened. Overall, the downward pressure on DOP weakened, the upward momentum remained, and the future DOP market was weak and stabilized.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of October 17, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 14366.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.12% over the average price of 13666.67 yuan / ton on October 11, and an increase of 7.21% over the same period last month.

On October 17, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 135.34, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 164.44% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the start of domestic benzene maleic anhydride market was basically stable. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose; The operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin decreased slightly, and the rise of the downstream unsaturated resin Market slowed down, focusing on just needed procurement. As of the 17th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 14500 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 14500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 14500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 14500 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 15000 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene fell after a wide upward trend this week. On October 10, the average price of pure benzene was 8170 yuan / ton, and on October 17, the average price of pure benzene was 8440 yuan / ton, up 270 yuan / ton, or 3.30%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong rose, at 8220 yuan / ton on the 11th and 8740 yuan / ton on the 26th, up 520 yuan / ton, or 6.33%. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 6360 yuan / ton as of October 17.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 41st week of 2021 (10.11-10.15), there are 72 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 26 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 26% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were dichloromethane (44.24%), DMF (30.80%) and hydrogen peroxide (29.57%). A total of 13 commodities decreased month on month, and 2 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 2% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the first three declines were potassium chloride (- 11.62%), acetic acid (- 5.26%) and potassium sulfate (- 2.44%). The average rise and fall this week was 3.69%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the supply of domestic maleic anhydride market is limited, some factories execute early orders, the factories have no inventory pressure, the price is high, and the market is mostly on the sidelines. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from October 9 to October 15, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 12760 yuan / ton to 12820 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.47% in the week, a month on month increase of 0.31% and a year-on-year increase of 119.15%.

After the festival, driven by the new production demand of cyclohexanone unit, the raw material pure benzene market rose first, and the downstream solvent of cyclohexanone was actively purchased, which formed a short support for the cyclohexanone market. However, the downstream chemical fiber market is general, and the enthusiasm for purchasing high priced cyclohexanone is significantly lower than that before the national holiday. The inventory of some cyclohexanone factories is high, mainly for profit making shipments. At present, the mentality of domestic cyclohexanone traders is empty, and the transaction focus of cyclohexanone has dropped.

In terms of raw materials and pure benzene, East China pure benzene rose as a whole. During the festival, new downstream enterprises in Shandong were put into operation, and local downstream enterprises invited tenders for many times. The inventory of local enterprises was low and the supply was tight, leading to a continuous rise in prices. After the festival, the inventory in East China was low, the spot was also tight, and the price rose sharply. Downstream, caprolactam units are planned to be restarted one after another and the capacity of new units is released. The supply of caprolactam may tend to be loose. In addition, with the shutdown of Heze Xuyang adipic acid unit, Nanjing Dongfang plans to restart in the near future. It is expected that the demand for chemical fiber procurement is limited.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business society:

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business community:

Although the cost support is obvious, the supply of cyclohexanone exceeds the demand in the short term. The cyclohexanone analysts of business society expect the short-term cyclohexanone market to fluctuate in a narrow range.

On October 14, the rare earth index was 615 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 38.50% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 126.94% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series rose, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 3500 yuan / ton to 610000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal rose by 747500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 6675000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide rose by 5000 yuan / ton to 635000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium rose by 7500 yuan / ton to 88000 yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal increased by 8000 yuan / ton to 785000 yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.76 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.725 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal was 3.535 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market increased. The recent procurement was general, the price trend of praseodymium neodymium series was stable, and the price trend of dysprosium series and terbium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market was stable, Downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will rise slightly in the later stage.