1、 Price trend

Latest price (March 17): 8920 yuan / ton

Analysis of key trading points: up 11.0% year-on-year. Analysis: PVC rose 2.17% on the 17th, and the spot rose with the market, but the range was small, and the market rose and fell. The price rise of raw materials and the good superposition of exports support the rise of PVC market. However, public health events affect the start-up status of enterprises in some areas, as well as limited logistics, negative purchasing sentiment in the downstream and general market trading atmosphere. It is expected that the PVC market will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.

Trade name: PC

Latest price (March 16): 23000.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: after the rise of the domestic PC market, the market’s concern about the stability of the petrochemical supply chain caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified. At present, it has eased, the uncertainty of the situation has increased, the crude oil has fallen, and the remote support of PC has weakened. In terms of supply, some enterprises have maintenance plans, and the benefits on the supply side still exist. At present, due to the rebound of domestic health events, the transportation situation and the production of downstream enterprises are affected, the demand progress is shrinking, and the operators are mostly bearish in the future.

Future forecast: it is expected that the PC market may be weak in the short term.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (March 15): 5000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid price market continues to operate strongly, and the average market price in East China increased by 0.20% in a single day. Last week, the market price of acetic acid in various regions increased too fast. The downstream mainly digested the increase, and had a mentality of resistance to the high price supply. The rationality of entering the market just needs to be followed up, and the market is dominated by negotiation.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is in a stalemate, sorting and operation, and pay specific attention to the downstream purchase.

The price of ethylene oxide is temporarily stable. The ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 8400 yuan / ton.

Upstream ethylene fluctuated at a high level. Up to now, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 1350 US dollars / ton, and that in Southeast Asia is 1350 US dollars / ton, down 10 US dollars / ton from the price of the previous trading day. The downstream monomer market was seriously affected by the epidemic. Some monomer dealers suspended their quotation because they were unable to deliver goods, and some manufacturers in the heavily affected provinces were trapped in the dilemma of unable to get in raw materials and products. The inventory was under pressure. Individual manufacturers reduced production, and the market trading sentiment was weak.

Forecast: due to the loss of the whole line, although the downstream is weak and the recovery of demand side is affected by force majeure, the cost is high. If there is no special benefit, the manufacturer may take measures to reduce the burden or limit the production and price to stop the loss.

441# silicon price trend

Metal silicon prices rose first and then stabilized this week, and the overall rise continued to slow down until the end of the week. The market action force has been slightly insufficient. The supply of silicon plants is tight, there is no pressure on inventory, and the superposition cost supports the high and strong silicon price. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of metal silicon in the domestic market on the 11th was 23910 yuan / ton, up 3.69% from last Friday and 72.53% year-on-year.

The prices of 441# silicon in various regions on the 11th are as follows:

The price range of #441 metal silicon in Huangpu port area is 23800-24000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 23900 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port area is 23700-24000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 23850 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 23500-23700 yuan / ton, with an average of 23600 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 23400-23600 yuan / ton, with an average of 23500 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 24600-24800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 24700 yuan / ton.

Demand side

In terms of organosilicon DMC, the price rose steadily and slightly. The ex factory quotation of domestic organosilicon DMC was around 35000-37000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 35720 yuan / ton. After the recent continuous rise in prices, the price began to fall, and fell nearly 3000 yuan / ton within the week, making the market confusing again. However, according to the current market, it is unlikely that silicone will continue to rebound and rise, the low pressure in the market will spread, the downstream demand support is insufficient, and the market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range.

In terms of aluminum alloy, the high price of aluminum alloy has dropped, resulting in the customer receiving capacity of aluminum alloy to be studied, and the alloy manufacturers have followed the decline. The factory quotation of aluminum alloy ADC12 is near RMB 22300-22500 / ton. At present, the digestion of inventory is mainly for the just need to replenish the inventory of industrial silicon.

Future forecast

On the whole, traders are mainly cautious in selling goods at this stage. At present, the price is running at a high level, and the factory is reluctant to sell. On the silicon plant side, the quotation is firm because the old order has not been fully delivered, the spot inventory is not much, and the raw material price rises. The market sentiment is short, the enthusiasm of traders and downstream inquiry decreases, and the upstream and downstream game is fierce. With the increase of production in March, the output of metal silicon will increase. It is expected that the rising trend of metal silicon in the future will slow down and the high level will operate stably in the short term.