Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on February 18, the average price of silver market in early trading was 4904.67 yuan / kg, up 1.07% on a daily basis, up 1.27% from the average price of 4793 yuan / kg in the spot market before the holiday (January 31).

On February 18, the spot market price of gold was 383.71 yuan / g, up 0.64% on a daily basis, up 3.07% from the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Geopolitical superposition tight monetary expectation suppresses risk appetite

The news from Russia and Ukraine exacerbated market risk aversion. Although the war forecast of public opinion in the early stage of the United States and Britain went bankrupt, the fundamentals of the geopolitical game surrounding the Ukrainian issue have not subsided recently. US President Joe Biden said that now all the evidence shows that Russia plans to invade Ukraine, while Russia accused the United States of ignoring its security requirements. Europe is experiencing one of the most serious crises in Post Cold War relations. Russia wants security assurances, including that Ukraine will never join NATO, while the United States and its allies provide arms control and mutual trust building measures. Geopolitics triggered a surge in risk aversion.

U.S. inflation data continued to ferment, and the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding interest free gold. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on February 16, the UK consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.5% year-on-year in January, the highest in nearly 30 years. Britain’s CPI has remained high for months. The Bank of England, the Central Bank of England, said the UK inflation rate would continue to rise and could reach 7.25% in April. Kazimir, the Governing Committee of the European Central Bank, supports the end of quantitative easing in August, improves the flexibility of interest rate hikes, and proposes that it is best to implement monetary tightening gradually.

Future forecast

Japan’s core consumer prices rose for the fifth consecutive month in January, but the rate of rise slowed compared with the previous month, increasing the possibility that the pace of interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan will lag behind other economies. In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals are likely to rise and fall.

Bisphenol A fell by 18900 yuan / ton in East China market

Today, the domestic bisphenol a market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the on-site offer fell. At present, the double raw material phenol / acetone has fallen one after another, especially the phenol market has a significant decline. Tomorrow, we will pay attention to the price adjustment of the factory. However, there are few downstream inquiries, and there is also a decline performance. The low end of the downstream liquid epoxy resin market once again fell by 200-300 yuan / ton, and the offer space is 28500-29500 yuan / ton.

Bisphenol a market is light, the shipment pressure of cargo holders increases, and the upstream and downstream related products are declining. Pay attention to the situation of factories, and the business society expects the short-term market to fluctuate.

441# silicon price trend

Market analysis

On the 16th, 44# metal silicon prices continued to rise. The average price in the domestic market was 21100 yuan / ton, up 1.25% from the beginning of the week. From the perspective of supply and demand, at present, there are still many silicon plants in Southwest China that have not started operation due to the impact of dry season, but the downstream silicone DMC and aluminum alloy have increased slightly after new year’s day, and the downstream demand atmosphere has gradually warmed up. However, the supply side is expected to be scarce, coupled with the increasing cost pressure, and the silicon plants have strong confidence in the future market, which has led to the higher price of metal silicon.

Future forecast

Overall, metal silicon is expected to rise more likely.

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (February 15): 19233.33 yuan / ton

On February 15, the market price of epichlorohydrin was stabilized, up 0.35% compared with the previous trading day and 8.05% compared with the price on January 15. At present, the price of raw material propylene is high, the glycerol market is strong, the cost side has a certain support, the downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is general, mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

It is expected that in the short term, the market of cyclopropane may be mainly arranged and operated on a wait-and-see basis.

1、 Price data

As of February 13, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8413.25 yuan / ton, down 0.15% from 8425.25 yuan / ton on February 7. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8500 yuan / ton.

As of February 13, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8187.50 yuan / ton, up 0.28% from 8165.00 yuan / ton on February 7. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8100-8400 yuan / ton.

On February 13, the naphtha commodity index was 103.84, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.58% from the highest point of 104.45 in the cycle (2022-02-08), and up 145.83% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha first rose and then fell. During the Spring Festival, the sharp rise of international crude oil drove the naphtha market to rise continuously. After the festival, businesses actively replenished goods to boost the naphtha market. In the second half of the week, the price fell slightly due to the fluctuation of crude oil.

Upstream: the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated concerns about tight global energy supply. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that unless OPEC’s major oil producing countries in the Middle East increase production, the global oil price may rise further, because it is difficult for the OPEC alliance to resume production for a “long time”, and the crude oil price has risen to a seven-year high of more than $90 a barrel. Due to the rebound in demand after the epidemic, the global supply lags behind, and the oil inventory is at the lowest level in seven years, Crude oil prices rose. The situation in Ukraine and Russia is tense, and multiple factors affect the rise of international oil prices.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene rose broadly after the festival and fell back. The price was 6290 yuan / ton on January 30 and 6860 yuan / ton on February 11, up 9.06% from before the festival. The price of mixed xylene rose broadly after the festival and fell slightly in the second half of the week. The price was 6490 yuan / ton on January 30 and 7140 yuan / ton on February 11, up 10.02% compared with that before the festival. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 8000 yuan / ton, up 9.59% from 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil price is high, the product oil market is high, and the naphtha market price is high. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of local refining enterprises, and the terminal just needs replenishment. It is expected that the local refining naphtha may rise in the near future.