According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of March 4, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is 12233 yuan / ton. Compared with February 28 (the ex factory price of butanone is 12533 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.39%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that the domestic butanone market fell first and then rose this week, and the overall situation is still declining, with a decline of 2.39% during the week. At the beginning of this week (March 1), affected by the cold downstream demand and low purchase enthusiasm, the confidence of butanone industry was frustrated. The air atmosphere in the field was strengthened, the domestic butanone market was in danger and fell, and the manufacturers had great shipping pressure. The offer price was reduced by 300-500 yuan / ton. On March 1, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was near 11800-12300 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the market was weak and the wait-and-see mood did not decrease. On the 3rd, the domestic butanone market adjusted downward again in a narrow range, with a reduction range of about 100-200 yuan / ton. Supported by the sharp rise of crude oil, the cost support of butanone has been strengthened, the mentality of the operators has improved, and the willingness to make profits for shipment has weakened. On the 4th, the quotation of butanone factory increased slightly under the cost support, with an increase range of about 100-200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of butanone is around 12000-12400 yuan / ton. At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the butanone venue has improved, and the actual volume of orders is still cautious.

Upstream, this week, the domestic liquefied gas market showed an overall upward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on March 3, the reference price of liquefied gas in Shandong was 6590 yuan / ton, up 5.51% during the week compared with March 1 (6246 yuan / ton). The decline of international crude oil has brought some bad news to the market. The downstream has obvious resistance to high prices, limited enthusiasm to enter the market, some upstream inventories are under pressure, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is general. Price consolidation is expected to be the main trend in the short term.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the transaction of butanone market is still cautious. The butanone datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes of butanone supply and demand.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on March 3 was 5258.33 yuan / ton.

Crude oil continued to be strong. In the morning, the market focus was strong and the actual purchase gas was good. In the afternoon, Meg’s external market strengthened. The recent cargo negotiation estimate was slightly higher than 720 US dollars / ton. The downstream transaction atmosphere is limited, just need is the main, and the market mentality is cautious. In terms of units, Xinjiang Tianye ethylene glycol shut down on February 16 due to the technical transformation of vaporizer, of which 300000 ton unit has been restarted, and another 300000 ton unit will be restarted in the near future.

Forecast: affected by the cost side, the market transaction focus will rise.

Trade name: diammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3646 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of diammonium phosphate was stable on March 2, which was stable compared with the previous trading day. Today’s diammonium market is stable, with sufficient early-stage orders, and the enterprise owners issue early-stage orders. Fertilizer for spring ploughing is about to start, and the downstream starts to follow up and prepare goods. Today, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3600-3650 yuan / ton, and the arrival quotation of 64% diammonium in Heilongjiang is 3750-3850 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

Future forecast: in the short term, the price of diammonium phosphate will run steadily and well.

The monitoring shows that on March 1, HuJiao continued to reduce slightly by about 150 yuan / ton, and the spot price was adjusted with the offer. According to the data, Indonesia exported 195000 tons of natural rubber in January 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. In terms of varieties, the export of standard glue was 190000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; The export of cigarette glue decreased by 2.3% year-on-year; Latex exports fell 15.8% year-on-year. In January, Indonesia exported 11000 tons of mixed rubber, a year-on-year decrease of 61%. Overall, Indonesia exported 196000 tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber in January, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% and 214000 tons in the same period last year.

Key points of analysis: on the supply side, the main production areas in Southeast Asia continue to reduce production, and the output is close to the lowest valley period of the year. In addition, the recent flood disaster in many provinces of Thailand, the local latex production reduction rate is expected to accelerate; China’s domestic area is still in the stop cutting period. Recently, the local weather is good, and it is expected that the rubber cutting in the domestic area may be advanced. On the inventory side, it is reported that the inventory of natural rubber trading enterprises and bonded inventory in Qingdao continue to accumulate, and it is reported that the amount of futures warehouse receipts is higher than that in the same period last year; On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream enterprises rebounded, and the purchase enthusiasm has a certain support for the natural rubber market price, but there has been no significant change. To a certain extent, the epidemic and the tension of overseas situation have increased the impact of the market tension on the automotive industry. Coupled with the pressure of short futures, the transaction in the natural rubber spot market is weak.

Future forecast: focus on the comprehensive impact of Rainstorm in Southeast Asia, epidemic situation, overseas situation, weather and spot accumulation in China. The short-term trend is weak and there is some support in the medium term. However, in view of the continuous accumulation of domestic inventory and the increase of output after cutting in China’s domestic areas at the end of March, if the demand is not followed up synchronously, the trend of natural rubber will still be unknown.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 4622 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 5.13% from the previous day. On February 28, Shandong Jinling dichloromethane bulk water was delivered in cash at 4730 yuan / ton. The market offer fell. After the festival, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and consolidated, and the cost was supported by dichloromethane. However, the supply and demand side is weak, and the dichloromethane market is dominated by small orders. In addition, the construction of domestic methane chloride is higher than that before the festival, the supply side is loose, and the price of dichloromethane falls under the pressure of supply and demand.

Future forecast: the cost supports the price of dichloromethane, but the supply pressure and the demand are still weak. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and volatile in the later stage.