On June 2, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Due to different production fuels, there was a large gap between manufacturers’ quotations. The mainstream price in the on-site negotiation was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and the price quotation in Hebei was 5200-5300 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia in the upstream raw material market remained high, and the price trend of nitric acid rose. The rising price of raw materials has a certain cost support for the ammonium nitrate Market, but the sales of the downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end, and the on-site supply of goods has been normal recently, The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable, and it is expected that the price may rise slightly in the later period. The market prices of ammonium nitrate in some domestic regions are as follows:

Region, Price (yuan / ton), Rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Hebei region, 5200-5300., 0

Henan region, 4500-4600., 0

Shaanxi region, 5000-5200., 0

Yunnan region, 2900-3100., 0

On June 1, the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, on June 1, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 11200 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day; The price of aluminum fluoride increased by 2.28% compared with 10950 yuan / ton on May 1. The recent aluminum fluoride market has stabilized.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has been adjusted strongly, the price of fluorite has risen violently, the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen strongly, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased; The high price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream has stabilized, the price of cryolite has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand in the downstream has recovered. The overall downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is still strong.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand for rising costs is stable, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is still strong. In the future, the aluminum fluoride market will undergo strong shock adjustment.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on May 31 was 121.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.02% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 43.76% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of the business society, the mainstream market of China’s polyaluminum chloride market fell in May, and the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride decreased from 2302.5 yuan / ton on the 1st to 2242.5 yuan on the 31st About RMB / ton, with a monthly decrease of 2.61%. In this month, the production of enterprises in the main domestic production areas was normal, and the market inventory was sufficient; The downstream demand continues to be average, and some parts are gradually weakened by the impact of transportation capacity and cost. The pressure on enterprises to ship goods is large, and the transaction is not easy.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: the monitoring data of the business society showed that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first fell and then rose in May. The quotation first fell from 325.00 yuan / ton on May 1 to 300.00 yuan / ton on May 7, a decrease of 7.69%, and then rose to 320.00 yuan / ton on May 30, an increase of 6.67%, an increase of 41.17% over the same period last year. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand was general; From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid; The downstream market fluctuates with each other, and the downstream is generally enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month. Business analysts believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on May 31 was 6614 yuan / ton, down 8.24% from the price of 7208 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 84.06% compared with the same period last year. After the May Day holiday, the logistics recovered, and there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. In addition, the good supply and demand of liquid plants in some regions promoted the slight increase of liquid prices in many places in China. However, since May 9, prices have stopped rising and turned down. At present, the demand in the off-season is weak, the receiving capacity of downstream users is general, in addition, the inlet gas price is lowered, the feed gas price is lowered, and the negative factors are dominant. The domestic liquid price is falling frequently, and the market continues to be weak. In May, the off-season of the market affected the demand. In addition, the price of feed gas was lowered, and the cost support further declined. As the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, considering the poor logistics during the holiday and the reduction of prices by liquid plants, it is expected that the price of domestic liquefied natural gas will continue to decline.

Future forecast: in the near future, the policy is mainly to stabilize the economy, the water treatment enterprises are operating normally, the market inventory is sufficient, the demand driven change is not large, and the circulation is blocked and the transaction is weak under the influence of public health events this month; From the perspective of industrial chain, the price of raw hydrochloric acid goes down first and then up, and the cost support is becoming stronger; Fuel costs continued to fall. Therefore, it is expected that under the current economic and industrial background, the future polyaluminum chloride market is likely to be stable and weak with small fluctuations.

On May 30, the rare earth index was 848 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.79% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 212.92% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. The price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series is temporarily stable. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 946500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 1155000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 955000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 965000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1255000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 1185000 yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide is 2600000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2595000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium metal is 3.38 million yuan / ton. The domestic light rare earth market price is temporarily stable, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market is temporarily stable, and the price of terbium series is temporarily stable. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. Myanmar prohibits exports. It is expected that the price trend of the domestic rare earth market will rise slightly in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur price in East China rose slightly this week. On May 27, the sulfur price was 4060.33 yuan / ton, up 0.58% during the week and 13.29% month on month compared with the price of 4040.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, the sulfur market fluctuated. Some refineries were still in the maintenance stage, with limited enterprise output, no pressure on inventory, tight domestic supply, and stable downstream demand. Sulfur refineries’ quotations were raised according to their own shipping conditions. In the later stage, the port sulfur price fell, the market atmosphere weakened, and the quotations of individual refineries were reduced. However, the overall market performance was in short supply, the downstream demand was good, and the sulfur price was still high during the week. As of the 27th, the price of sulfur fixation in refineries in Shandong was between 4020-4120 yuan / ton, with an increase of 20 yuan / ton in the range, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was between 3950-4050 yuan / ton, with an increase of 50 yuan / ton in the range.

This week, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong was weak, and the price trend in the week was stable, moderate and downward. On May 27, the quotation was 1066 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.19% compared with the beginning of the week. The units of mainstream sulphuric acid manufacturers in Shandong have resumed normal operation, and the inventory may increase. The mentality of the operators is weak. In addition, the downstream demand is not enough to follow up. The quotations of individual enterprises have been reduced slightly, and the overall market in the week is mainly on the sidelines.

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market was consolidated and operated. The market price of ammonium decreased slightly within one week. The manufacturer’s inventory was tight. Most enterprises’ quotations were suspended and a small number of orders were received. The downstream enterprises just needed to follow up. The market trading atmosphere was acceptable. The high level of diammonium was temporarily stable, and the price trend in the week was stable. The supply of diammonium in the market was tight, and the demand was small. Most enterprises suspended their quotation, and the orders were mainly for export, and diammonium operated at a high level.

According to the sulfur analysts of the business club, the domestic sulfur market is in tight supply, the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, the downstream demand is stable, and the sulfur price is high. On the other hand, the sulfur price has continued to rise to the highest level. Considering that there may be resistance in the downstream, it is expected that the sulfur market will be in a stalemate in the future, and the overall price trend is still high. Specific attention will be paid to the market follow-up.