This week, the spot tin market price (7.29-8.5) fluctuated for many times, and the overall market rose. The average price of the domestic market was 195710 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 199210 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 1.79% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price continues to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 31st week of 2022 (8.1-8.5), there are 4 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that have increased month on month, and the top 3 commodities are gold (1.39%), zinc (1.27%) and aluminum (0.56%). There were 16 commodities with a month on month decline, and 4 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 17.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were neodymium oxide (- 6.14%), praseodymium oxide (- 5.85%) and metal neodymium (- 5.58%). This week’s average increase or decrease was – 1.9%.

Futures market situation this week

Variety, closing price, compared with the same period last week, inventory (tons)

Shanghai tin, 198000 yuan / ton, + 3060 yuan / ton, 3557

Lunxi, 24335 US dollars / ton, – 565 US dollars / ton, 4015

In the futures market, this week, Lunxi maintained a wide range of volatility, while the trend of Shanghai and tin fluctuated at a high level. On the macro level, at the beginning of last week, the geopolitical situation was tense, the risk aversion psychology was strong, and the metal market was generally under pressure. On Friday, the metal market mentality was boosted by the fall of the US dollar index. The metal market as a whole rose, and Shanghai and tin followed the recovery.

With the gradual recovery of the maintenance of domestic smelters, the supply of tin has been gradually relaxed in the near future, while the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future. The overall start-up of tin and solder enterprises is still low and the orders are small. In terms of inventory, the social inventory was reduced slightly this week, and the overall inventory level was higher than that of the same period last year. Generally speaking, the market expects tin production to rise in August, and the main production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi will gradually resume production, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the tin price is difficult to be supported. It is expected that the rising power of the tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price will be under pressure in the future.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8125.71 yuan / ton on August 1, and the average price was 8097.14 yuan / ton on August 5. The decline rate in the week was 0.35%, down 6.75% compared with July 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) on August 1 was 10050.00 yuan / ton, and the average price on August 5 was 10116.67 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.66% in the week and a decrease of 7.47% compared with July 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8750 yuan / ton on August 1 and 8750 yuan / ton on August 5. The price remained stable during the week, down 7.08% compared with July 1.

In the first week of August, the domestic polyethylene market remained stable on the whole, and the three spot varieties fluctuated in a narrow range, rising and falling, with a range of 50-250 yuan / ton. LLDPE decreased slightly, LDPE increased slightly and HDPE remained stable. During the week, the international crude oil market was mainly downward, and the cost brought insufficient support to the market. At present, the market supply is relatively sufficient, but the demand is weak. The downstream is mainly based on demand purchase, and the market transaction is limited. During the week, the number of maintenance devices increased and the supply decreased slightly, which brought relative benefits to the market.

On August 5, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2209 was 7842, the highest price was 7863, the lowest price was 7748, the closing price was 7787, the previous settlement price was 7939, the settlement price was 7808, and the decrease was 152. The trading volume was 354585, the holding volume was 276140, and the daily increase was – 1956. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the international crude oil market is weak, and the cost is not good enough. In the later stage, the market supply is expected to increase, and there is no obvious improvement in the downstream demand in the short term. The downstream mainly focuses on just needed procurement, and the market benefits are limited. It is expected that there will still be resistance to the upward trend of the PE spot market in the short term.

Zinc price rose on August 4

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price rose slightly on August 4, and the zinc market stopped falling and recovered. On August 4, the zinc price was 24124 yuan / ton, up 0.17% from the zinc price of 24082 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Zinc prices stopped falling and rose on August 4; Compared with 2021, the zinc price increased by 7.66% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

The European energy crisis still exists, the zinc smelting cost remains high, and the supply of zinc is insufficient; Downstream enterprises resumed production and work, domestic infrastructure projects began to increase, the supply and demand of zinc city slowly warmed up, the supply and demand of zinc city has not yet recovered to the expected level, and the downward pressure of zinc city is still increasing.

Aftermarket forecast

Insufficient supply, warmer demand, downward pressure on zinc prices still exist, and the upward momentum is increased. It is expected that zinc prices will rise slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of petroleum asphalt manufacturers in Shandong Province was 4373 yuan / ton on August 3, down 0.43% from the previous trading day and up 29.00% year-on-year. On August 3, the closing price of 2212, the main contract of asphalt futures, was 4084 yuan / ton, up 2.15%.

In terms of spot, international crude oil was weak and volatile, and the spot price of asphalt fell slightly. Sinopec refinery prices remained stable, and some regions continued to be destocked.

The international crude oil price is weak and volatile, the asphalt high price transaction is limited, and the domestic asphalt market is mainly sorted out in the short term.

In July, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber stabilized after a sharp decline. According to the price test of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber on the spot market was 7943 yuan / ton on July 31, down 10.01% from the price of 8826 at the beginning of the month, up 7.20% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main short fiber contract closed at 7414 at the end of the month, down 7.07% from the beginning of the month.

The main reason for the decline in polyester staple fiber prices in July was the weakening of costs and weak demand: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike raised the risk of economic recession, and the blockade measures that may be brought about by the repeated global epidemic suppressed demand. In July, the international crude oil price volatility weakened, and WTI crude oil fell 7.26% to close at US $98.30 per barrel. The fall in oil prices dragged down the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol, the upstream raw materials of staple fiber, and the PTA period and spot month fell by 9.39% and 6.78% respectively. Ethylene glycol futures and spot fell by 3.05% and 2.67% respectively in the month. With the continuous high temperature, the off-season of the industry continues, the downstream operating rate declines, and the demand and foreign trade weaken, it is expected that the downstream demand will still be difficult to improve in the short term. However, in late this month, some textile enterprises in textile terminals had the atmosphere of bottom reading and replenishment after the continuous decline of staple fiber prices, and most of them returned to wait-and-see by the end of the month.

Business analysts believe that under the global economic recession and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates, the short-term oil price may continue to fall, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber will weaken. Textile terminals are still in the off-season, with low startup rate and weak demand. However, the spot supply of staple fiber is still tight, and some devices still have maintenance plans. The future trend of polyester staple fiber may still be dominated by cost. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a weak shock and stabilize trend in August. Pay attention to the changes in raw material prices, the epidemic, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the adjustment of U.S. tariff policies.