This week, the domestic MIBK market is weak and downward, and the main focus of the mainstream market negotiation is small downward. The focus of market negotiation in East China has dropped to 10000 yuan / ton, and a few orders have fallen below 10000 yuan. The reference of market negotiation in South China is about 10100 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of cost, the acetone market continues to decline. Although the recent overhaul of the raw material end acetone plant has increased, and the social supply is expected to decrease, the sluggish terminal purchase has consumed the good supply side. The acetone negotiation in East China is 4600 yuan / T, and the short-term acetone still has a narrow downward trend.

The overall change of the downstream demand side is not large, and it has been in a state of insufficient buying for a long time. The large households have low intention to purchase inventory, and the small households just need small orders, so the carriers have to give up profits to ship. In addition, the market negotiation has been declining under the influence of the external environment.

Next week, the negative cost side is expected to increase again, and the raw material acetone is still expected to fall. Next week, the downstream digestion contract is still in the middle and first ten days of the month. The supply side of MIBK is normal, and the shipment pressure is still large. It is expected that the weak adjustment will be made next week, and the negotiation in East China will be about 9900-10000 yuan / ton.

On August 11, the rare earth index was 703 points, down 15 points from yesterday, down 30.19% from the highest point 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 159.41% from the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index has dropped sharply, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series has dropped sharply, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium has dropped by 10000 yuan / ton to 905000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has dropped by 4500 yuan / ton to 750000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide has dropped by 12500 yuan / ton to 790000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium has dropped by 30000 yuan / ton to 985000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium has dropped by 30000 yuan / ton to 1065000 yuan / ton, The price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 785000 yuan / ton, the price of terbium oxide decreased by 50000 yuan / ton to 13.7 million yuan / ton, the price of metal terbium was 17.4 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide decreased by 25000 yuan / ton to 2.27 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium decreased by 35000 yuan / ton to 3.02 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium iron alloy decreased by 25000 yuan / ton to 2.27 million yuan / ton, the price of domestic light rare earth market declined, the traders were generally active, and the metal factories were cautious, Just to be followed up, the price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market is declining, and the price of terbium series is slightly lower. The downstream purchase is mainly based on demand, and the export of Myanmar is prohibited. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market will continue to decline in the later period.

On August 10, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10100-10500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price trend of the on-site merchants was temporarily stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers increased, and the on-site supply was sufficient. Recently, the fluorite price was slightly higher, but the downstream refrigerant market remained low, and the on-site procurement was not active. From a comprehensive perspective, it is expected that the on-site hydrofluoric acid price trend in the later period will remain temporarily stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on August 9, the domestic methanol in East China port was about 2490 yuan / ton, down 2.23% from the previous working day. On August 9, the main contract m2209 of methanol futures closed at 2488 yuan / ton, down 59 yuan / ton or 1.54% compared with the closing of the previous trading day.

The international oil price fluctuates widely, and the supply side is abundant. The quotation market for equipment maintenance of production enterprises has not seen obvious effect. After the commencement of the equipment, the external quotation is reduced by about 50 yuan / ton. At the same time, the demand side pays less, and the unit operating rate of downstream enterprises is generally low.

In the short term, the domestic methanol market is still likely to decline.

This week, the spot tin market price (7.29-8.5) fluctuated for many times, and the overall market rose. The average price of the domestic market was 195710 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 199210 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 1.79% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price continues to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 31st week of 2022 (8.1-8.5), there are 4 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that have increased month on month, and the top 3 commodities are gold (1.39%), zinc (1.27%) and aluminum (0.56%). There were 16 commodities with a month on month decline, and 4 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 17.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were neodymium oxide (- 6.14%), praseodymium oxide (- 5.85%) and metal neodymium (- 5.58%). This week’s average increase or decrease was – 1.9%.

Futures market situation this week

Variety, closing price, compared with the same period last week, inventory (tons)

Shanghai tin, 198000 yuan / ton, + 3060 yuan / ton, 3557

Lunxi, 24335 US dollars / ton, – 565 US dollars / ton, 4015

In the futures market, this week, Lunxi maintained a wide range of volatility, while the trend of Shanghai and tin fluctuated at a high level. On the macro level, at the beginning of last week, the geopolitical situation was tense, the risk aversion psychology was strong, and the metal market was generally under pressure. On Friday, the metal market mentality was boosted by the fall of the US dollar index. The metal market as a whole rose, and Shanghai and tin followed the recovery.

With the gradual recovery of the maintenance of domestic smelters, the supply of tin has been gradually relaxed in the near future, while the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future. The overall start-up of tin and solder enterprises is still low and the orders are small. In terms of inventory, the social inventory was reduced slightly this week, and the overall inventory level was higher than that of the same period last year. Generally speaking, the market expects tin production to rise in August, and the main production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi will gradually resume production, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the tin price is difficult to be supported. It is expected that the rising power of the tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price will be under pressure in the future.