The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the DOP price was 8576.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 4.25% compared to the DOP price of 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the month. The rise in raw material prices has led to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. Stocking up before the Spring Festival has led to an increase in demand for plasticizers. Supported by rising costs and demand, there is a significant driving force for the increase in plasticizers.

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the price of isooctanol was 7800 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.63% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the month. The construction of new equipment and the high level of equipment construction in isooctanol enterprises have led to sufficient supply of isooctanol. With stocking before the Spring Festival, the demand for isooctanol has rebounded, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. In January, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in January, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, and the cost of plasticizer DOP increased; In terms of demand, stocking up before the Spring Festival and replenishing inventory after the holiday will increase the support for plasticizer demand. In the future, after the Spring Festival, the replenishment of inventory will end, and the demand for raw materials such as isooctanol and plasticizers will decrease, resulting in weakened cost support for plasticizers and weak demand; It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will slightly decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 24th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5630.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the price of 5623.33 yuan/ton on January 20th, and a decrease of 2.03% compared to the beginning of the month. The inventory pressure on the supply side is not high, and downstream entry into the market follows up on demand. The market supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the ethyl acetate market is operating in a wait-and-see manner.

This week, the operating rate of domestic ethyl acetate plants has decreased, with no pressure on enterprise inventory, weak raw material prices as the main factor, inadequate cost support, weakened downstream production of ethyl acetate, and follow-up on demand before the holiday. Enterprise shipments are still acceptable, and the market price of ethyl acetate has stabilized.

In the future, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is not high, and the market supply of goods remains stable. Downstream pre holiday stocking is coming to an end, and the market transaction atmosphere is weakening. In the short term, the price of ethyl acetate is stable and waiting for operation. Specific attention should be paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (1.20-1.24), with an average market price of 247920 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 247210 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.29%.

Tin prices have risen and fallen this week. Recently, the trading performance of the spot tin market has been relatively flat, with most trading companies’ transactions mainly scattered. Although some imported tin has arrived at the port, due to the large pre-sale quantity in the early stage, the spot resources of imported tin still appear tight. In addition, with the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, most trading companies’ inventory remains at a low level, and the market may face further tightening of spot resources in the future. Judging from the tight supply situation, there is still good support for tin prices.

Fundamentally, the import volume of tin ore has remained at a low level for several consecutive months. The prolonged shutdown in the Wa State region has had a significant impact that continues to ferment and become apparent. As a result, the processing cost of tin ore has fallen to a low point in recent years, and this trend is having a significant impact on the smelting end. The operating rate of refineries in Yunnan region has declined, and the year-on-year growth rate of refined tin production has also shown a downward trend.

On the supply and demand side, the new energy industry and the electronics industry have shown good recovery expectations. Especially prominent is the increasing demand for tin in the electric vehicle industry and renewable energy sector. These positive factors are expected to provide stable support for tin prices in the medium to long term.

Based on comprehensive analysis, in the short term, influenced by multiple factors such as low inventory levels and policy adjustments, market sentiment is gradually tending towards a cautious trend, and tin prices will continue to fluctuate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 23rd, the average selling price of PET is 6347 yuan/ton, with some price adjustments after an upward trend.

Overnight crude oil prices continue to decline, resulting in weak cost support for PET. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the terminal market is gradually entering a holiday mode and withdrawing from transactions, resulting in a generally low willingness of downstream enterprises to restock.

Taking into account these factors, Shengyi Society believes that the PET market price may show a weak and volatile trend in the short term, mainly fluctuating with changes in the cost side. However, the exact market trend still needs to be further observed in terms of the status of subsequent production facilities, actual demand, and the cost support effect brought about by changes in crude oil prices.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24626 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 6.31% from the zinc price of 25846 yuan/ton on January 1st.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the suspension of interest rate cuts and policy risks have put pressure on prices. At the same time, as the Spring Festival approaches and consumer seasonality weakens, the marginal pressure at both macro and micro levels has increased, leading to a decline in zinc prices.

Supply and demand side

The supply situation of raw material zinc concentrate has improved, and the focus of domestic and international processing fees has shifted upwards. Refinery raw material inventory has rebounded to conventional levels. As a result, the extent of profit loss has narrowed, and the supply of refined zinc continues to rebound month on month. However, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, there has not been a significant increase in volume yet. The zinc ingot import window has been closed for a long time, with only a small amount of supply flowing in, which has limited impact on the market.

Demand side

Terminal consumption is showing a trend of differentiation. The intensification of the trade in policy has provided support for automobile and home appliance consumption, leading to a surge in the wind and solar industry at the end of the year, while infrastructure consumption remains stable. However, there has been a seasonal decline in galvanized exports, and the real estate industry has not yet shown significant improvement. There is an expectation of seasonal decline in initial consumption, but the demand for stocking up before the Spring Festival is still strong, providing some support for the market.

comprehensive analysis

With the release of negative factors and the absence of significant supply side volume, seasonal accumulation is expected to be limited, and the downward space for zinc prices will also be limited.