1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased after the Spring Festival. On February 25th, the average market price of caustic soda was 634 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.93% compared to the previous trading day. On February 24th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 785 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 43.93% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 31.27% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, caustic soda is on the rise. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 600-670 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 850-970 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2050-2150 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. Returning after the Spring Festival, some traders and downstream urgently need to replenish their stocks. The rise in liquid chlorine prices has driven the recovery of chlor alkali profits, and some caustic soda enterprises have lower inventories, resulting in an increase in caustic soda prices. However, with the completion of downstream enterprise replenishment, the overall upward space for caustic soda is limited.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been on the rise, and after the holiday, the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has been affected by the short-term replenishment of essential needs. However, with the completion of inventory replenishment, it is expected that caustic soda will continue to maintain a stable operation in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 11th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton. Currently, there is insufficient demand in the DMF market, and downstream market shipments are slow approaching the Spring Festival. Factories are about to take a holiday, and the DMF market is mainly operating steadily.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, the DMF market is mainly operating steadily, with overall overcapacity in the market. The focus of negotiations is stable, but there is insufficient motivation for price increases.
Regarding methanol: In the upstream methanol market, traditional downstream demand is insufficient, inventory is running at high levels, and prices are mainly under pressure.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly remain stable, with insufficient downstream demand and narrow price fluctuations.

Product Name: Isopropanol
Latest price: On February 10th, the average market price was 5650 yuan/ton.
Analysis points: The isopropanol market is currently stable today. At present, the market situation on the exchange is light, and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching. Downstream terminal factories are gradually shutting down, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange is quiet. Actual transactions are cautious. It is expected that the isopropanol market will maintain stable operation in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

In early February, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell, with most spot prices of various grades being lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 9th, the average price of ABS sample products was 9187.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.74% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since February, the load of the domestic ABS industry has remained stable with small fluctuations, with an overall slight decrease within the range. The Tianjin Dagu plant has been shut down to carry out blowing tasks, and the overall operating level of the industry has been reduced by about 3% to 64%, with an average weekly output of less than 140000 tons. The inventory position of aggregation enterprises continues to decline at around 190000 tons, and the supply on site remains tightly balanced. Overall, the stage of supply and demand in the ABS market is not significant, and the supply side has increased its support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: Within the first ten days of February, the upstream three materials market of ABS rebounded after rising, which weakened the impact on the cost side of ABS. Acrylonitrile rose upstream at the beginning of the month, but the new acrylonitrile plant of Yulong Petrochemical was put into operation, resulting in an increase in supply to the northern market. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot buying has weakened, and the acrylonitrile market has significantly fallen after rising.
The butadiene market is showing a high-level downward trend. Last month, the cost side crude oil prices were relatively high, strengthening bottom support. As the Spring Festival approaches and downstream stocking ends before the holiday, the support for essential needs weakens. In addition, the industry load remained strong during the Spring Festival period, and the expected accumulation of inventory in the future led to a weak consolidation of the market due to the loose supply and demand pattern. However, the low inventory level in the early stage and the linkage with the external market have formed multiple benefits, and it is expected that the space for a significant decline in styrene prices is limited.
The styrene market also experienced a high-level decline. In the early stage, the resumption of work in the domestic industry did not meet expectations, while the maintenance of overseas styrene plants increased. The increase in inquiries and actual transactions for China’s styrene exports further drove the depletion of port inventory. But recently, some devices have returned and the supply side has rebounded. In addition, the situation in the Middle East has gradually exhausted the favorable crude oil prices, and the raw material pure benzene is trading sideways at a high level, lacking further guidance on the fundamentals of styrene. It is expected that the styrene market will continue to consolidate during the Spring Festival period.
On the demand side: In early February, there was no significant increase in consumption in the downstream electrical housing industry of ABS, and the improvement in profitability of end enterprises was limited. As the Spring Festival approaches and pre holiday stocking is basically over, buyers have little willingness to continue reducing their inventory. On exchange trading is gradually entering a bottleneck, but there are still some high chasing orders being executed. The current inventory position of merchants is not high, and the quotes between enterprises and merchants are firm. Overall, the demand side is supporting the ABS market to level off.
Future forecast
Before the holiday, the domestic ABS market was weakly consolidating. The production load of the aggregation plant has remained stable with a slight decrease, and the supply on site has maintained a tight balance. After the rise of costs and materials, they have fallen back. Business analysts believe that the macro level ABS supply-demand imbalance pattern still exists, but the strong momentum of buying orders at low prices at the beginning of the year has eased production and sales pressure. The stocking before the New Year’s Eve has been basically completed, and coupled with the significant increase in the previous period, buyers’ acceptance of prices has declined. It is expected that ABS may enter a calm consolidation market in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 6th, the average market price of acetic acid was 2753.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76.67 yuan/ton or 2.71% compared to the price of 2830.00 yuan/ton on February 1st.
This week (2.1-2.6), domestic acetic acid prices continued to decline. On the supply side, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity fluctuated narrowly, and the intention of enterprises to ship increased. Downstream pre holiday stocking sentiment was not high, and market purchases were followed up on demand. The market trading atmosphere was poor, and in order to promote shipments, vinegar prices generally fell, resulting in a weak downward trend in the acetic acid market during the week.
Recently, the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated weakly. As of February 6th, the average price in the domestic market was 2223 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% compared to the price of 2265 yuan/ton on February 1st. The high inventory of methanol in the port market and average downstream procurement have led to a downward shift in the price center, resulting in a weakening of the spot market. The domestic methanol market has poor trading, with limited new transactions on the market and weak supply and demand performance. Methanol prices have declined, and the pressure on acetic acid from the cost side has weakened.
The downstream acetic anhydride market saw a narrow decline, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride dropping from 4590 yuan/ton to 4565 yuan/ton from February 1st to 6th, a decrease of 0.51%. The operating rate of acetic anhydride on the supply side is not high, and downstream entry into the market is mainly based on demand. Enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and the price of acetic anhydride on the raw material side is weakening. The negative impact on cost is driving the weak operation of acetic anhydride prices in the upstream.
In terms of future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is not much expected fluctuation in the operating rate of domestic acetic acid plants before the holiday, and companies are maintaining their shipping pace. Downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively weak. It is expected that the acetic acid market will stabilize and operate in the later stage, and attention will be paid to the market supply situation in the future.