1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 9th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6460 yuan/ton, which is 0.16% higher than the reference average price of 6450 yuan/ton on July 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 9th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6666 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.99% compared to the reference average price of 6733 yuan/ton on July 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Entering July, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have fluctuated and stabilized. As of July 9th, the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6300-6500 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6600 yuan/ton.

Cost side

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. In early July, the market price of yellow phosphorus steadily increased. The operating rate of enterprises has declined, with yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly raising prices. Downstream demand performance is average, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus price will remain high in the short term.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The market price of phosphate ore has slightly increased this month. The inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate rock yard is mild, and some areas are experiencing tight supply of phosphate rock. It is expected that domestic phosphate ore prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

At present, the phosphoric acid market has sufficient supply and a moderate trading atmosphere. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market is weak, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. Manufacturers and distributors tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with a single focus on discussion.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent phosphoric acid market has seen a narrow consolidation and operation. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is rising, and the cost of thermal phosphoric acid is supported. The supply of wet process phosphoric acid has decreased, but downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid may follow a slight increase in raw materials.

According to foreign news on July 5th, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, saw its crude oil exports drop to the lowest level in 10 months in June.

At the beginning of this week, cruise tracking data showed that global sea freight shipments in June decreased by 1 million barrels per day compared to May, with half of the crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia decreasing.

Data shows that Saudi Arabia’s sea freight crude oil shipments in June decreased by 529000 barrels per day to 5.606 million barrels per day, lower than May’s 6.135 million barrels per day.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride in June fluctuated and fell. As of June 28th, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% from the price of 8187.50 yuan/ton on June 1st. At the end of June, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7800-8000 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7300-7600 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: Tight supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, with a domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. At the end of June, the price of industrial naphthalene rose, the market of naphthalene phthalic anhydride rose, the market of ortho phthalic anhydride stabilized, and the market of ortho phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The market for phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in June.

On the demand side: The trend of DOP on-demand procurement market is fluctuating and falling

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 28th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9875 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.35% compared to the DOP price of 10112.50 yuan/ton on June 1st; Compared to the DOP price of 10400 yuan/ton on June 10th, it has decreased by 5.05%. The market for plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, while the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. The cost of plasticizer DOP decreased, and the production of plasticizer DOP enterprises remained stable. The supply of plasticizer DOP was sufficient. Downstream manufacturers of plasticizers are experiencing a decline in production and poor demand. The downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

Future Market Forecast

According to analysts of Shengyishe’s phthalic anhydride product data, in the future, in terms of cost, the recent trend of crude oil prices has fluctuated and increased, while the high price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized, and the cost support for phthalic anhydride still exists; The downstream DOP market is fluctuating and falling, with poor demand for plasticizers and poor purchasing enthusiasm. It is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 27th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 7875.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price on Monday.

Recently (6.24-6.27), the market price of epichlorohydrin has remained stable. Recently, the price of propylene raw materials has slightly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine raw materials has risen. The cost support is relatively strong, coupled with the shutdown and maintenance of some equipment, the market supply has shrunk, boosting market sentiment. Downstream inquiries and procurement enthusiasm is average, with small orders and demand buying being the main focus. The focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market is mainly on stability.

Raw material propylene:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on June 26th, the reference price for propylene was 7200.75, an increase of 5.05% compared to June 1st (6854.60). Recently, the price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, providing support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Future Market Forecast:

According to analysts from Business Society, the current cost and supply side support for epichlorohydrin is relatively strong, but the demand side performance is average. Downstream follow-up is cautious, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has been continuously decreasing recently (6.17-6.26). On June 26th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3350 yuan/ton on June 17th, with an overall decrease of 5.07%.

Recently, the acetic acid market has been weak and declining. The acetic acid maintenance equipment in the market has recovered, and the mentality of manufacturers has weakened. Last week, the quotation of acetic acid factories was continuously lowered, while the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market was not high. Market trading was limited, and the atmosphere on the market was bearish. The acetic acid market maintained a weak operation. With the increase of acetic acid supply, the intention of manufacturers to discharge inventory was obvious, and the acetic acid quotation once again fell.

As of June 26th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ June 17th/ June 26th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ -50

North China region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ -125

Shandong region/ 3350 yuan/ton/ 3180 yuan/ton/ -170

Jiangsu region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3040 yuan/ton/ -85

Zhejiang region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3140 yuan/ton/ -85

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuates in a range. On June 26th, the average price in the domestic market was 2520 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 2520 yuan/ton on June 17th. The methanol market has sufficient supply, but downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. There is a strong need to follow up when entering the market, and demand support is insufficient. Methanol prices are weak and consolidating.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly. On June 26th, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5462.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% compared to the price of 5550 yuan/ton on June 17th. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and downward, with insufficient cost support for acetic anhydride. At the same time, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply, downstream purchases on demand, and limited on exchange trading. The upstream market is driving the weak consolidation of the acetic anhydride market.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that the main acetic acid factories on the market are currently operating normally, and the inventory of enterprises is maintaining a low level of operation. However, downstream demand is weak, and more purchases are made according to demand. Market trading is limited, and the supply and demand game on the market is expected. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will observe and consolidate, and prices may operate steadily. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.