I. price trend

Yellow phosphorus prices fell in November, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 19166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 18800 yuan / ton.

On November 27, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 118.99, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.27% from 161.39 (2019-07-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.24% from 89.98, the lowest point on September 5, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: in November, the price of yellow phosphorus showed a downward trend. On 18th, due to the one week environmental protection inspection conducted by Yunnan Guichuan, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced and the price was slightly increased. As of the 28th day, the average price was about 18800 yuan / ton. On the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus has not changed much. The price has declined slightly, but the price is still high. According to the inspection by the central environmental protection group of Yunnan Province, the enterprises in Yunnan Province started to decline, and the market supply was tight. Some enterprises mainly supply early orders, and the quotation for foreign reports was suspended. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 18800-19000 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-19000 yuan / ton. The overall market is short of spot goods, most traders are mainly wait-and-see, they are more cautious in taking goods, the market demand is relatively light, downstream users take them as they use them, and the current high price of yellow phosphorus is mainly consolidated.

Industry chain: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic coke market mentality has recovered recently, but the market as a whole remains stable. The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market of Sichuan Province is 1980 yuan / ton, and that in Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou Province is 2220 yuan / ton. This month, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to run in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some regions were slightly adjusted. Prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other regions remained at a high level. Prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang region were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and prices remained stable in the past two weeks. The average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is 416.67 yuan / ton. The downstream phosphoric acid and phosphate enterprises stop more, the market fluctuation is not obvious, the user’s replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and the market trading is light. There is a strong wait-and-see mood among enterprises. In the short term, the market price of phosphoric acid is mainly based on price structure, and the mainstream price is 5100-5600 yuan / ton.

On November 27, the yellow phosphorus industry chain index was 105.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.35% from 124.27 (2019-07-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.00% from 79.69, the lowest point on October 7, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

III. future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business cooperation, this month’s yellow phosphorus enterprises are limited in driving, the overall market of yellow phosphorus is light in trading and investment, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Who will take it with you? Most traders are mainly wait-and-see. They are more cautious in taking the goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the high price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic gold spot on 27th was 330.86 yuan / g, up 0.49% compared with 329.25 yuan / G on 26th, 343.30 yuan / g, down 3.62% compared with the monthly peak (November 1), and 284.10 yuan / g, up 16.46% compared with the price at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On November 27, the spot price of silver in China was 4112.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.39% compared with the spot price of 4056.33 yuan / kg on November 26; on November 1, the spot price of silver was 4367 yuan / kg, a decrease of 5.82%; on November 1, the spot price of silver was 3617.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 13.68%.

Main influencing factors

1. China US trade negotiations are expected to be digested in advance

On the morning of November 26, Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council and China’s leader of the China US comprehensive economic dialogue, spoke with us trade representative lait Heze and finance minister mu nuqin. The two sides discussed the resolution of each other’s core concerns, reached consensus on the resolution of relevant issues, and agreed to maintain communication on the remaining issues of the first phase of the agreement and consultation. The first phase of the trade agreement between China and the United States is expected, with feedback from the market on the 26th, providing room for today’s slight price rebound.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is stable. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is maintained at 9600 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable. However, due to the decrease of fluorite market supply and the improvement of refrigerant market in the near future, the market price of hydrofluoric acid may usher in a “turning point”.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is stable. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers are generally on the way. The operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much. For domestic hydrofluoric acid market, on-demand procurement, coupled with the high operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid plant, the domestic spot supply is normal, and the domestic price trend is mainly stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in South China is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and in North China The price of hydrofluoric acid is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is general, and the market price in the market remains low, but some manufacturers reflect that there is a trend of rising in the near future. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, in Shandong is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, in Jiangxi is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable temporarily.

In the near future, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid remains high. The ex factory price of fluorite in China is 2861.11 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite plant is in normal operation. The mine and flotation plant in the field are in normal operation. The supply of fluorite in the field is normal. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream remains low. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are generally sold, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in a temporary stable market price trend. The high price of fluorite brings certain cost support to the hydrofluoric acid market, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable. But in the near future, fluorite supply has decreased, fluorite prices remain high, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid may be affected.

In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market may usher in a “turning point”.

In recent years, the operating rate of domestic refrigerant unit has not changed much, but the quotation of downstream refrigerant has increased. In addition, the supply of fluorite has decreased in recent years, and fluorite price remains high, which has a certain positive support for the market price of hydrofluoric acid. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in business association, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise slightly in the future.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market of propylene oxide was stable as of November 25, with an average price of 10066.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Friday (22), and the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China was 9900-10400 yuan / ton on November 25.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the market of propylene oxide was stable on the 25th. There is no pressure on the inventory of propylene oxide plant in Shandong Province, and the quotation is stable temporarily. However, there is resistance to the high price raw materials in the downstream, and the purchase is carried out on demand cautiously. On the 25th, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 10100 yuan / ton, and that in East China mainstream market was 10400 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9800 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 9800 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is around 9600 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.

Industrial chain: Recently, the upstream propylene market has declined slightly in two consecutive rounds. Currently, propylene inventory is average, crude oil and PP market are beginning to maintain stability, but downstream units are partially reducing load, so it is expected that propylene market price will continue to decrease in recent days. On the 25th, the downstream polyether market was generally stable, and the trading atmosphere was tepid.

3. Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analysts of the business club, the upstream propylene price fell and the cost support was weak. Although there was no pressure on the factory inventory for the time being, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing high priced raw materials decreased. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be dominated by stalemate finishing operation.

I. price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 18700 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 18800 yuan / ton. Within the week, the price rose slightly, with a range of 0.53%.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the market price of yellow phosphorus rose steadily. A week-long environmental inspection in Yunnan and Guichuan since Tuesday has led to a decrease in the operating rate of yellow phosphorus, a decrease in market supply, a slight increase in the price quoted by manufacturers, and a limited increase in the actual turnover. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 18800 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18600-18800 yuan / ton. The main quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 18500 yuan / ton. The overall market is light, and traders mainly wait and see.

Industry chain: the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to run in a downturn this week. As of November 22, the trading atmosphere of Yunnan phosphorus ore market is light, and the ex factory quotation of 29% phosphate rock in Yunnan is 320 yuan / ton; the phosphorus ore market in Hubei continues to be weak and stable, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate is 420-440 yuan / ton; the demand of Guizhou phosphorus ore market is low, weak and stable as a whole, and 30% ammonium phosphate ore The quotation of car board is 340-430 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of kaiphosphate phosphate phosphate in Guizhou is about 430 yuan / ton. The market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is stable temporarily, and the mainstream price is 1980 yuan / ton. Phosphoric acid market maintained stable consolidation, and on-site trading was still relatively light. The phosphate market fluctuates in a narrow range, with more downstream parking, low enthusiasm for replenishment and weak market trading.

III. future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus market rose slightly this week. Under the tight supply, some enterprises raised their prices slightly. There was a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream, and the actual transaction growth was relatively limited. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus is mainly consolidated at present.