According to statistics, the price trend of domestic rare earth market in 2019 shows a trend of “polarization”, and the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market rises sharply, but the price of light rare earth market falls correspondingly. The price trend of some domestic rare earth products in 2019 is as follows:
As can be seen from the trend chart, the market price of heavy rare earth in 2019 has increased significantly. The market price of dysprosium oxide at the beginning of the year is 1210000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 1750000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 44.63%; the market price of dysprosium metal at the beginning of the year is 1655000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 2125000 yuan / ton, with a year-round increase of 28.40%; the market price of dysprosium ferroalloy at the beginning of the year is 1220000 yuan / ton, with a year The final market price is 1720000 yuan / ton, an increase of 40.98% in the whole year. In 2019, the import of domestic heavy rare earth market is limited, and the increase of heavy rare earth products is large.
The price trend of young rare earth market in 2019 is declining. According to statistics, the market price of neodymium oxide at the beginning of the year is 314000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 286000 yuan / ton, with a year-round decline of 8.92%; the market price of praseodymium oxide at the beginning of the year is 397500 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 342500 yuan / ton, with a year-round decline of 13.84%; the market price of neodymium oxide at the beginning of the year is 400500 yuan / ton, and the market price at The price of metal praseodymium at the beginning of the year is 660000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 650000 yuan / ton, with a year-round decrease of 1.52%; the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide at the beginning of the year is 317000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 284000 yuan / ton, a year-round drop of 10.41%; the market price of praseodymium neodymium alloy at the beginning of the year is 408000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 359000 yuan / ton, with a year-round drop of, The market price of light rare earth in China has declined to some extent.
It can be seen from the rare earth industry index chart and the price trend chart of rare earth products that the price trend of domestic light rare earth market can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of April, and the light rare earth market price fluctuates and falls; the second stage is from May to the end of June, and the light rare earth market price ushers in a substantial rise; the third stage is the second half of 2019, and the light rare earth market price keeps falling. The price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market also has three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of May, with heavy rare earth prices surging higher; the second stage is from the beginning of June to the end of October, with heavy rare earth prices slightly lower; the third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of November, with heavy rare earth prices rebounding higher.
In the first stage, the domestic rare earth market saw ups and downs, and the price of heavy rare earth market was greatly increased by 63% due to the impact of Myanmar customs clearance. In addition, due to the decline of domestic production of ion-based rare earth ores, the on-site merchants were optimistic about the future market development, and the sources of goods were reluctant to sell, resulting in a sharp increase in the price of heavy rare earth market. However, in the first stage, the market price of light rare earth decreased correspondingly. The supply of light rare earth market was sufficient. In addition, the order quantity of downstream NdFeB was too small, and the start-up time was late, which led to less metal demand, so the oxide price was depressed, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell more than once.
In the second stage, the market price of light rare earth in China soared, and the price of light rare earth increased by as much as 30%. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market input of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market, and the manufacturers have reasonably controlled the sales, and are reluctant to sell. In particular, the supply of some mainstream rare earth oxides is tight, and the price trend of rare earth market is rising. In the near future, large-scale enterprise groups in the market are reluctant to sell, and the market situation of rare earth market is improving. However, major manufacturers are also cautious in pricing products. In addition, in this stage, the import of rare earth fell, domestic enterprises were reluctant to sell, and some prices in the rare earth market rose sharply. In addition, the domestic environmental protection department recently issued the rectification requirements for the rare earth industry. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry shrank, and the market price of light rare earth rose sharply. However, the market price of heavy rare earth is slightly lower. Due to the customs clearance of Myanmar in September, the domestic market supply of heavy rare earth is greatly increased, and the market price of heavy rare earth is correspondingly lower.
In the third stage, the domestic market price of light rare earth continued to fall. The price fluctuation of rare earth market was related to the environmental protection supervision nationwide. The production of rare earth had particularity, especially some products had radiation hazards, which made the environmental protection supervision more strict. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are weak in buying. In addition, the price of rare earth has declined compared with the previous period, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market supply of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply is normal, and the market price trend of rare earth is declining. But in November, due to Myanmar’s unilateral customs suspension, the price of domestic heavy rare earth market rebounded. In addition, China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing to promote the development of domestic rare earth industry. It is willing to use rare earth resources and products to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world, play a positive role in promoting the development of China’s economy and the world economy, and make good use of rare earth products Exports, domestic heavy rare earth return to the upward trend.
The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons. Moreover, the data in 2019 is from The highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The situation of domestic rare earth industry will be improved.
In 2019, the price trend of domestic rare earth market presents “polarization”, and the price of domestic heavy rare earth market rises sharply, but the price trend of light rare earth market goes down. In addition, the country is more and more serious in rectifying the rare earth industry, and the rare earth mining volume is also increased in 2019. In addition, the development of new energy vehicles is faster and faster. Chen Ling, rare earth analyst of business society, expects the development of rare earth industry in 2020 There will be some improvement. The domestic market price of heavy rare earth may maintain a high price, and the market price of light rare earth will also be affected by this.
