1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt fell this week, and the price of asphalt was reported as 3300 yuan / ton, 2.37% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the international oil price continues to fall, the demand of asphalt market is low, and the price of asphalt market falls this week.

Industrial chain: since the OPEC + conference, Saudi Arabia has been releasing the news of a substantial increase in production, and Russia has actively responded to the war to increase production. Although U.S. President trump said that he would intervene in the oil price dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the right time, and the international oil price rebounded in retaliation, as of 15:00 on the 20th, WTI crude oil price was 27.5 US dollars / barrel, and WTI crude oil futures still fell 16%.

In terms of asphalt Market: crude oil price continued to decline this week, and asphalt spot continued to decline. On Tuesday, Sinopec’s Asphalt price in East China and South China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, and the asphalt price in Sichuan Province, China Sea, was reduced by 700 yuan / ton twice. The asphalt transaction prices in Northeast China, Shandong Province and Hebei Province were continuously reduced, and the market price decline was hard to stop. Although it just needs to recover, the demand side is limited, and the trend of crude oil price is pessimistic. Major institutions continue to reduce the price expectation in the later period, the market mentality is pessimistic, the cost end of asphalt production collapses, and there is room for asphalt price to be lowered.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at business club, believes that: Although crude oil rebounds sharply, global crude oil demand is still shrinking, and there is no sign of turning around in the current oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the production cost of asphalt continues to pull down. It is expected that the price of asphalt market will continue to bear pressure in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of the business association, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong on the 18th was 1076.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong on the 17th was 1026.67 yuan / ton, down 4.64%. The current price is down 21.43% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the domestic market has fallen. As of the 18th, the main factory quotation of Hebei is about 920 yuan / ton, that of Shandong is about 920 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is 1100 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%, which have been restarted. Formaldehyde manufacturers started to improve as a whole, the supply of goods was sufficient, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and the price continued to fall.

Industry chain: upstream methanol: affected by the collapse of international crude oil futures, the main methanol contract ma2005 of zhengshangsuo fell and stopped, and the methanol spot price in East China kept linkage with it, and the market in East China, South China and other places fell sharply. In the first half of the week, methanol in the mainland was mostly on the sidelines. With the port falling sharply, the price in the mainland was also loose, and Shandong, North China, central China and other places were in decline. Enterprises in the main production areas had limited offers, and more contracts were executed. The downstream market operating rate is general, the demand is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. Formaldehyde enterprises have lowered their prices in order to ship, and the formaldehyde market has declined all the way.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, the international crude oil epic collapse, the U.S. stocks plummeted, the domestic public health events just improved, while the overseas rapid spread and spread, under the interweave of long and empty, the upstream methanol fell sharply, the downstream market overall recovery was slow, and the demand was weak, so the formaldehyde analyst of business and chemical branch predicted that the recent domestic formaldehyde price or low consolidation was the main.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the price trend of TDI market in this week is stable. The average price of East China market in this week is 11100 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with last week, down 17.37% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic TDI market narrowed and weakened, the downstream current construction situation is not optimistic, the demand for raw materials is limited, the pressure of the industry’s shipment is large, the actual shipment order negotiation is low, and the factory policy is waiting. By the end of the 13th, the market in North China has been stabilized and sorted out, and the attitude of the operators is mainly wait-and-see. The weak market in East China has been followed up, and the atmosphere in the market is cold. The quotation of the operators is stable and wait-and-see. The quotation of domestic goods with tickets is 10500-10700 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is 10900-11000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in terms of toluene, although domestic enterprises have gradually entered the resumption period, and market demand has gradually improved, domestic toluene prices still follow the decline due to the sharp drop in international crude oil prices and the sharp drop in market prices in South Korea, the main source of toluene imports. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 4500 yuan / ton, the demand for toluene is lack, the terminal consumption is slow, and the market price is stagnant.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, the TDI market is weak, the downstream construction situation is not optimistic, the atmosphere in the market is relatively cold, the overall offer of the industry is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the transaction volume is insufficient. It is expected that TDI market will wait and see in the later stage and pay attention to the factory news.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week is 4600 yuan / ton, which is stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4500 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4700 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The price of POM manufacturers is mainly firm, and the market demand is general.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation, pessimistic methanol market fell sharply, domestic methanol market fell sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 1962 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, it was 1842 yuan / ton, down 6.11% in the week.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene analysts believe that: upstream methanol prices down, polyoxymethylene prices may be lowered.

Commodity index: on March 12, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 105.41, down 1.35 points from yesterday, down 3.30% from the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28), and up 4.47% from the lowest point of 100.90 on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Market: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), in March 2020, the proportion of poly aluminum chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers returning to work continued to rise. The mainstream quotation in the domestic market: poly aluminum chloride solid (industrial level, content ≥ 28%) with tax quotation of about 1750-2200 yuan / ton, liquid (industrial level, content 10% – 12%) with tax quotation of about 390-450 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s delivery gradually recovered Reply. Enterprises with high inventory generally dump goods after the start of construction, and the quotation is slightly reduced, and most manufacturers’ quotation is relatively stable.

Upstream and downstream: after the Spring Festival holiday and delayed resumption of work, the price of hydrochloric acid in the domestic market is generally stable. In February, the price of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers was average, and the price in North China was about 243.33 yuan / ton temporarily. Due to the general market situation of upstream liquid chlorine and weak support of hydrochloric acid, downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane still mainly purchase hydrochloric acid according to early demand, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively large.

Downstream: according to the manufacturer, the water treatment project is still under construction, and the demand is still recovering. The polyaluminium manufacturer is under normal operation, but the current demand is not so much, and it will take time to recover.

Industry: in late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires that: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and treatment before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. The production was resumed for ten days in August and stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the shutdown was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection was strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi were required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production. During the Spring Festival holiday from January to February 20, 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work one after another. At present, the logistics gradually recovered in March, and the transportation cost has returned to normal. Before the year, the inventory was still in consumption. Some enterprises with higher inventory had slightly lower prices.

Future forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that although the impact of the current epidemic has not been lifted, the resumption of work in various regions continues to improve, and the downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride will increase with the continuous improvement of the situation, and will wait for some time. The current supply of the manufacturer is sufficient, the return to work and production of the water treatment enterprises in Henan, the main production area, is in good condition, the initial inventory is high, the upstream cost is stable and the demand is general, the market situation of polyaluminium in the future will be temporarily stable, and the price concessions that the manufacturer will make to accelerate the inventory consumption will not be excluded.