1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers on May 26 was 18833.33 yuan / ton, down 15.67% compared with the beginning of the month and 35.8% compared with the same period last year. On May 25, the R134a commodity index was 78.05, the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 21.95% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on September 2, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

In May, R134a demand in refrigerant market increased to some extent, but it did not meet the expectation. Domestic and foreign demand was not good. The automobile industry was in a downturn. The downstream after-sales market was general. The manufacturer’s shipping volume was not large, the industry’s mentality was pessimistic, the enthusiasm of traders to take goods decreased, and the market situation was still in a weak position. Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end has been lowered, the support force has been weakened, and the new capacity has been released. The supply of goods in the site is sufficient, and the situation of oversupply appears. Many negative factors have suppressed the price of refrigerant R134a, and the market is still in danger of falling. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of May 26, the average price of refrigerant R134a is 18833.33 yuan / ton, and the market price is concentrated around 17000 yuan / ton – 22000 yuan / ton.

According to statistics, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is still slightly lower. As of May 25, the price of hydrofluoric acid market is 8630 yuan / ton, which is 15.72% lower than the price trend at the beginning of the year, 22.81% lower than the same period last year. The price of hydrofluoric acid continues to be slightly lower. In the near future, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market remains low. The downstream refrigerant industry purchases on demand. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low, and the delivery of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is poor. Some manufacturers report that the price is low in the near future, and some manufacturers report that the loss is serious. The market of hydrofluoric acid has many advantages and disadvantages, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has hit a new low in the year. Hydrofluoric acid analysts of business club think that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is still dominated by low volatility in the short term, and there may be a rebound opportunity in the later stage.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there is a total of 1 rising commodity, 1 falling commodity and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were chloroform (9.52%); the main commodities falling were hydrofluoric acid (- 0.57%). This week’s average was up or down 1.79%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, the demand side of refrigerant R134a is still recovering slowly at present, while the supply side is relatively loose, and the refrigerant R134a market is expected to decline in the short term.

According to statistics, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is still slightly lower. As of May 25, the price of hydrofluoric acid market is 8630 yuan / ton, which is 15.72% lower than the price trend at the beginning of the year, 22.81% lower than the same period last year. The price of hydrofluoric acid continues to be slightly lower.

In recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid in China has declined slightly. The goods in the hydrofluoric acid yard are generally sold. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is not improved. The market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline. In addition, the price of raw material fluorite remains low. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is affected by certain negative effects. The price of hydrofluoric acid in China has declined slightly as of May 25 in the south The mainstream of regional hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 7500-8000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 7500-8500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market remains low. The downstream refrigerant industry purchases on demand. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low, and the delivery of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is poor. Some manufacturers report that the price is low in the near future, and some manufacturers report that the loss is serious. The market of hydrofluoric acid has many advantages and disadvantages, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has hit a new low in the year.

From the industrial chain diagram, it can be seen that the prices of upstream and downstream products of hydrofluoric acid will decline in varying degrees in 2020, and the prices of upstream fluorite will drop by 10.74%. As of the 25th day, the factory price of fluorite is 2577.78 yuan / ton. The supply of domestic fluorite is sufficient, and the price of fluorite will remain low. The low price of upstream cost will have a negative impact on the market of hydrofluoric acid, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be affected Low shock. In the near future, the price of refrigerant products has recovered. As of the 25th, the price of domestic R22 products is 15500 yuan / ton, and the price of R134a is 21333.33 yuan / ton. In the near future, the sales of automobile industry is in a downturn, and the trend of downstream refrigerant market remains low. The demand for refrigerant is not good, foreign special events are serious, and the export of refrigerant terminal is not smooth, which is mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the starting price of domestic air conditioning industry is low, The demand for after-sales maintenance is weak. On the whole, the demand at home and abroad is lower than expected. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 manufacturer is fluctuating, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the situation of market price or not appears. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 15500-17500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of refrigerant products is still low. The price of hydrofluoric acid market is affected by the negative impact.

In the near future, the operating rate of domestic refrigerant units has remained low, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid market is general, but the demand for downstream refrigerant is difficult to rise. In addition, some manufacturers have reported that fluorite prices are near the cost line, and there is little room for price decline in the later period. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business association, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is still dominated by low volatility in the short term, and there may be a rebound opportunity in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China continued to rise steadily this week, with a stable weekend. The initial weekly price was 6829 yuan / ton, and the Thursday and Friday prices were 6979 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 2.20%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: last month, Shandong propylene price soared and plummeted, and then remained stable again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th day, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th day, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. On the 11th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th day, it increased by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th day, it continued to increase by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 14th day, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th day, it still increased by 50-100 yuan / ton on weekends Until 22, the upward trend has remained unchanged, with a daily upward trend of 50-100 yuan / ton. Today, it finally began to stabilize. Now, the market transaction is still between 6950-7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil price rose significantly at the end of last week, and now the crude oil is still rising, but the trend is slowing down. Influenced by the international events on August 8, the crude oil rose again significantly. On November 11, the crude oil went down slightly, and in the later period, the crude oil price rose slightly in a row. On the 15th, it also rose significantly. On the 18th, Monday, it rose a lot, and from the 19th to the 21st, it fluctuated slightly, which is still good for propylene Obviously.

Affected by public health events, the modified special material in PP last month was melt blown cloth material, and the price rose sharply in the early stage. Now, the price of melt blown cloth has been lowered, and PP futures have been restored to rationality. This week, the spot price of PP has stepped up, with a weekly increase of 2.47%, slightly positive impact on propylene.

This week’s acrylic acid market rose slightly and remained stable, with a weekly increase of 0.79%, which had little impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market fell this week, down 2.11%, slightly negative impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin rose steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 3.12%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol continued to rise, with a significant increase over the weekend, with a weekly increase of 3.03%, which is good for propylene.

Octanol rose steadily this week, up 2.34%, slightly positive for propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, rose sharply in the early stage, fell sharply, and remained stable after rising this week, with a weekly increase of 4.87%, which may still have a positive impact on propylene.

Phenol Market in Shandong Province maintained stability this week, with no weekly increase or decrease, which had little impact on propylene.

Shandong acetone market also maintained stability this week, with no weekly increase or decrease, which had little impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, on the whole, the international crude oil market has a positive support, and the price has been rising for many times, which has a certain supporting effect on propylene. However, the downstream operating rate is relatively high and propylene inventory is not large, but the recent rise of several consecutive days still puts pressure on the downstream. Therefore, although the downstream is also up, the trading is still cold. It is expected that propylene prices will maintain stability in recent days.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of May 19, the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream area of the initial high-end is around 310-400 yuan / ton, and the overall price is about 10-20 yuan / ton lower than that in the early May.

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, more than half a month has passed in May, and the phosphorus ore market has declined in recent days. According to the national data, the output of phosphorus ore (p2o530%) in April was seven hundred and fifty-seven point three 10000 tons, compared with the output in March（ five hundred and forty-five point four Million tons) up 3.1 million tons. At present, the cumulative production of phosphate rock in this year one thousand nine hundred and thirty-two point eight Million tons, the same period as last year（ two thousand nine hundred and twenty-two point nine 10000 tons) year on year decrease- 20.9% 。 Recently, the price of phosphate ore of many mining enterprises in Guizhou Province has been slightly reduced and put into operation, with a reduction of 10-30 yuan / ton. In Guanglong mining, Kaiyang, Guizhou, the platform price of 30% phosphate rock is 310 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; in Xifeng, Guizhou, the vehicle price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 330 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; in Fuquan Huifa, Guizhou, the factory price of 28% grade phosphate rock is 310 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton compared with the previous period, and the factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 340 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous period 。 The market in Yunnan is relatively stable, and the ex factory quotation of 29% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan is about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the weak sorting operation is the main one in Hubei. The factory quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 400 yuan / ton. The overall weakness of phosphate ore market in Guangxi is downward. The factory price of 28% grade phosphate rock in songgan trade in Guangxi is 315 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton compared with the previous period, and the factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 345 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous period.

Industry chain: at present, the yellow phosphorus market is still in a weak position. The on-site transaction is relatively light and the wait-and-see attitude is strong. At present, Sichuan region mainly issues early orders, Yunnan region is in a tight spot, and the market offer is temporarily stable. As of May 19, according to the data monitoring, the average ex factory price of yellow phosphorus is 17450 yuan / ton, compared with May 1（ seventeen thousand and nine hundred ）By comparison, it’s down 2.51% 。

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, the market in the downstream market of phosphate rock has been weak in recent days, with insufficient support. It is expected that the market of phosphate rock will be weak and stable in recent days.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the market price of trichloromethane in Shandong continued to rise after the May 1st movement. As of May 18, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 2100 yuan / ton, up 50% from 1400 yuan / ton at the beginning of May.

2、 Cause analysis

Product reason: at present, the trichloromethane market in Shandong continues to rise, and the overall operating rate of enterprises will be less than 50%. Among them, the 440000t / a plant in Jinling, Shandong Province will start 50%, the 400000t / a plant in Luxi Chemical Industry will start 40%, the 280000t / a plant in Dongyue, Shandong Province will start 40%, and the 80000t / a plant in Jinmao, Dongying, Shandong Province will be shut down. The overall inventory of the industry is low, and the market spot supply is tight The situation of shopping and stock up is fair, and the demand is the most important. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2100-2200 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 2200 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 2850 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, affected by the slow down demand in the downstream and the rising inventory in the port, the price of methanol in the domestic market fluctuated and fell, and the market started steadily, at present, about 1692 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is high and firm, the large factories in Shandong Province have reduced the load, the market supply is tight, and the downstream market just needs the most, and the current market quotation is 500-800 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market began to stabilize after a sharp decline, with strong firm price intention and declining market supply. At present, the price hovers around 15000 yuan / ton; the purchase of solvent and pharmaceutical pesticide industry just needs to be light, and the price support for chloroform is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, the operating rate of trichloromethane market is low, the inventory pressure is not large, the firm price intention is strong, the downstream market just needs to buy, the recent inquiry of traders increases, and it is expected to be high and strong in a short time.