After the Spring Festival, the antimony ingot market continued to develop, and the price went up all the way. In the environment of most non-ferrous products going down on March 1, the antimony ingot price stood out.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on March 1, 2021, there were 5 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous plate that rose month on month, among which there were 3 kinds of commodities that rose by more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities that rose were dysprosium ferroalloy (5.79%), dysprosium oxide (5.56%) and antimony (5.29%). There were 8 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were lead (- 1.91%), silver (- 1.87%) and gold (- 1.40%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.32%. In addition to antimony, cobalt and rare earth products, other non-ferrous products prices fell.

Antimony related products will enter a new rising cycle after the opening of the festival. This round of rising is not only the continuation of the rising trend before the festival, but also the beginning of a new cycle. In view of the current market situation, the overall construction of domestic antimony mines is on the low side, and the shortage of supply has not changed significantly. At present, domestic manufacturers mainly rely on imported raw materials. Affected by foreign public health events, the situation of imported antimony ore is not optimistic. The overall decline in 2020 is about 30% compared with that in 2019. Coupled with the limited transport capacity during the Spring Festival, the main domestic antimony ingot manufacturers are in a state of shortage of raw materials, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the operating rate is generally low.

In the future, the business community believes that it is difficult to alleviate the short-term situation of tight supply at the ore end. When it is difficult for manufacturers to obtain raw materials, they can only continuously increase the ex factory price to achieve the purpose of reluctant to sell, so as to alleviate the pressure brought by the difficulty in obtaining raw materials. Therefore, the price of antimony ingot may start a new rising cycle.

related data

Antimony is a kind of small metal which is scarce in the world. It is called China’s four strategic resources together with rare earth, tungsten and tin. It is mainly affected by its wide use and irreplaceable. It is widely used in various flame retardant materials, alloys, glass, semiconductor components, medicine and chemical industry, national defense and military industry and other fields. In 2016, the Ministry of land and resources issued the national mineral resources planning (2016-2020), which included 24 minerals such as antimony in the strategic mineral catalogue.

According to the latest customs data, China’s import volume of antimony ingots in December 2020 was 117 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 83%, and the export volume decreased by about 70%.

Recently, the domestic ethanol market has risen slightly, and the market performance of different regions is different. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of March 1, the domestic ethanol market price was 7262 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 1.57% and a year-on-year rise of 27.64%.

In terms of regional market conditions, Henan’s ethanol market was weak; Northeast’s ethanol market was up; East China and Shandong’s ethanol market was up; Dongguan’s ethanol market in South China was up; Sichuan’s corn ethanol market was high; Anhui’s corn ethanol market was up; Dongguan’s cassava ethanol market was up; most cassava ethanol enterprises in Yunnan shut down and the market was down The transaction was limited, and the molasses ethanol market in Guangxi rose.

From the perspective of raw material corn, the raw material corn market remains strong after the festival. At present, the corn gap is still large, and the import of grain to Hong Kong is limited. Downstream, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose sharply to the highest point in nearly a decade.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong Province ﹣ general grade ﹣ 7150 yuan / ton

Shandong Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7600-7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 7300-7350 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6950 yuan / ton

About 7300-7350 yuan / ton of corn in Anhui Province

About 7100-7200 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

In Anhui Province, the price is about 8150-8200 yuan / ton

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7070-7100 yuan / ton, tax included

Anhydrous ethanol in Henan Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei Province: 7450-7500 yuan / ton

In Hebei area, the coal quality is less than 7600 yuan / ton

In Guangxi, the consumption of honey alcohol is 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi is 6900-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region: anhydrous ethanol: 7800 yuan / ton

About 7000-7400 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

There are about 8100-8150 anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong Province

In Heilongjiang Province, the general grade of corn alcohol is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, including tax

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

About 7600-7700 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 6700-6800 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6800-6900 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

The high price of corn has become the norm. Due to the possibility of small fluctuation in the increase of supply, the overall trend will continue to run at a high level. In the near future, the operation rate of ethyl acetate in the downstream has increased. Business community ethanol analysts expect short-term, domestic ethanol market price regional trend is obvious

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong increased from 2186.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2193.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 25.57%. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 102.02 on February 26.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2180 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week.

On the demand side: the agricultural demand started in succession, the willingness of terminal purchasing gradually increased, and the topdressing increased in some areas due to the favorable rainy weather; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increased, and the new orders were followed up appropriately, and there was still demand potential in the later industry. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 72.5%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The pressure on manufacturers to ship is not big. With the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation, the inventory accumulated during the festival is also declining.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain: the upstream products of urea have mutual rise and fall this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas dropped slightly, from 2976.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2840.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.59%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.97%; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3376.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.32% , a year-on-year increase of 23.54%. This week, the quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose from 7200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 2.78%, 24.72% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, urea cost support is weak this week.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is gradually increasing, the industrial demand is better, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

Upstream and downstream price information:

As of today’s (26th) press release, the latest CFR NE Asia price of upstream ethylene is US $999.00-1001.00/t; CFR SE Asia price is US $974.00-976.00/t; domestic Jinshan United trade ethylene price is RMB 7800 / T; Luxi Chemical price is RMB 7900 / T.

The ex factory reference price of ethylene oxide is 7600 yuan / ton in East China, South China and Northeast China, 7800 yuan / ton in North China and 7850 yuan / ton in Central China.

Downstream monomer Shanghai Dongda hPEG quoted 10000 yuan / ton, imported TPEG quoted 10300 yuan / ton; Hubei Ling’an temporarily closed the offer, Sanjiang Chemical monomer quoted 9800 yuan / ton.

After the festival, the downstream operation rate in China gradually increased, and the continuous tight product inventory and the rising upstream crude oil price led to the steady rise of ethylene price in Asia. Market news pointed out that a naphtha cracking unit of Yangzi Petrochemical Company was shut down for maintenance on February 20, and the methanol to olefin unit of Nanjing Chengzhi might be overhauled in March, while the downstream PE price and demand trend of ethylene were stronger, which further pushed up The price of ethylene. The profit margin of ethylene oxide is squeezed due to the rising price of ethylene in the upstream. At present, the profit of ethylene glycol is about 1000 yuan, and the profit of ethylene oxide is 200-300 yuan. Therefore, the cogeneration unit increases the output of eg. the ethylene oxide unit of Lianhong group was shut down on February 21. The planned maintenance time is one month. The ethylene glycol load of Sanjiang is increased to 60-70%, and the EO unit of China Science and technology Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. is closed Load reduction. Affected by the maintenance plan, ethylene oxide market resources are tight, supply and demand are favorable, and the market is bullish. Facing the soaring price of ethylene oxide, the cost of downstream monomer enterprises is under pressure, and the monomer price is rising all the way. At present, the market price is in the range of 9800-10500, and the market attitude is cautious and optimistic. The contract price of downstream MEG futures eg2105 recently exceeded 5900 yuan / ton, the spot price is currently maintained at about 6400 yuan / ton, the spot / futures price difference remains at a high level, the operating rate has gradually increased slightly, the stock market continues, and the glycol market is still strong.

The support of cost and supply and demand side is strong. At present, epoxy has digested the increase, and the market focus will still move up in the later stage, which is relatively strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on February 25 was 2933.33 yuan / ton, down 0.23% compared with the previous day, up 2.33% compared with last Thursday (18th), and down 8.05% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In the first week after the festival, the domestic LNG market rose. At the end of the holiday, the logistics recovered, the lower reaches returned to the market one after another, just needed to replenish, the effect of reducing the price of the liquid factory before the festival was acceptable, the stock pressure was not great, the liquid price rose actively, a few areas still reduced the price, the market rose more and fell less, and the trading atmosphere was good. Entering this week, the market ushered in an inflection point, liquid factory shipment pressure, the price began to fall, has been less than 3000 yuan / ton. Since February 20, PetroChina has reduced the price of feed gas for its direct supply liquid plants, increasing the price adjustment space of liquid plants. Meanwhile, the liquid plants such as Huanggang in Hubei Province have started up for sale, and the market supply is increasingly sufficient. However, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal demand, the situation of oversupply is revealed. In addition, with the recent rise of temperature, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas has declined steadily. However, the current price is low, so it is not easy to adjust Deep down, mostly to 50-150 yuan / ton fluctuation consolidation, the future is difficult to say optimistic.

According to data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on February 25 was 2933.33 yuan / ton, up 2.33% from last Thursday (18th) and down 8.05% from the same period last year. On the 25th, the price in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 30-100 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, 2930-3550 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 50-100 yuan / ton; in Shanxi, 3000-3250 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 100 yuan / ton; in Ningxia, 2950-3000 yuan / ton, with a temporary price stability; in Henan, 3400-3500 yuan / ton, with a daily rise of 100 yuan / ton; in Hebei, 3250-3300 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 50-150 yuan / ton.

Date of quotation (yuan / ton)

Inner Mongolia: LNG 2800-3100 February 25

Shaanxi LNG 2930-3550 February 25

Shanxi LNG 3000-3250 February 25

Ningxia LNG 2950-3000 February 25

Hebei LNG 3250-3300 February 25

Henan LNG 3400-3500 February 25

Downstream products are mixed:

In recent years, the domestic methanol market has picked up slightly. Recently, the domestic methanol market rebounded slowly. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of February 25, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2282 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 2.25% and a year-on-year increase of 13.45%. After the festival, the downstream enterprises replenish goods appropriately, the logistics is restored, and the freight is reduced. Domestic methanol market recovered slowly. In the future, traders’ willingness to hold goods is not strong, they have to ship goods at high prices one after another, market buying remains just in demand, and transaction is weak. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

Liquid ammonia. On February 24, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose slightly. Before and after the Spring Festival, the liquid ammonia market has been tepid, but since this week, the market has risen. According to the monitoring of the business community, the liquid ammonia market has risen by 1.52% since this week. Agricultural demand started in succession, the willingness of terminal procurement gradually increased, and the agricultural procurement in mainstream areas was cautious; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer increased, and some downstream products were still cautious, most of them went with the market. The price of liquid ammonia is expected to rise in the near future.

Urea, Shandong urea mainstream factory price rise. On February 24, the reference price of urea was 2190.00, which increased by 6.31% compared with February 1 (2060.00). In late February, the urea market in Shandong was mainly in a slight fluctuation. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is gradually increasing, the industrial demand is better, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

Dichloromethane, on the 23rd, the market price of methane chloride in Shandong continued to rise. The manufacturer’s offer was increased by 50 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory price of dichloromethane was between 3300-3550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory price of trichloromethane was about 2680-2850 yuan / ton, which is expected to remain high in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of LNG from business news agency believe that: at present, the market supply is increasingly sufficient, but the demand follow-up is insufficient, and the situation of oversupply is revealed. Moreover, with the recent rise of temperature and the interweaving of long and short, the domestic LNG price has stopped rising and turned to falling. However, the current price is low, so it is not easy to fall deeply, and the narrow range adjustment is the main. It is difficult to be optimistic in the future.