In early March, the domestic ABS market experienced an epic rise, with significant increases in spot prices for all grades. The market atmosphere shifted from a post holiday calm to a hot one. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 9th, the average price of ABS sample products was 14233.33 yuan/ton, with a price level increase of 59.45% compared to the beginning of the month. Some grades even saw a weekly increase of over 3000 yuan/ton, setting a record for the highest increase in recent years.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: coexistence of start-up recovery and maintenance expectations
Since returning after the holiday, the load of the domestic ABS industry has fluctuated and increased. In early March, the production capacity of enterprises such as Zhenjiang rose at a low level, and the overall operating level of the industry increased by about 6% to 70%. The weekly average output rebounded to 150000 tons, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises was digested to 187000 tons. However, there is a 45 day maintenance plan for the midstream of Yingshili benzene, and Zhangzhou is expected to experience a decrease in load from March to April due to insufficient upstream raw material supply. Coupled with the impact of the atmosphere of reluctance to sell and speculation in the domestic market, the on-site supply is more inclined towards tight balance. Overall, despite the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the industry, the short-term supply side provides strong support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: Geopolitics triggers upstream three materials, with unprecedentedly strong cost support
In early March, due to the Middle East conflict affecting oil and gas production and supply, the escalation of the US Iran standoff, and the risk of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, directly triggered market panic over energy and raw material supply. The upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the same petrochemical product, were simultaneously subjected to severe impact.
Acrylonitrile: The price increase of acrylonitrile in the market is expanding, and the cost push is gradually increasing. Industry players are concerned about the continued supply of raw materials. Under the pressure of losses and expectations of supply variables, the market has a strong bullish atmosphere, and major suppliers have significantly increased their quotes. However, in the short term, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, and attention should be paid to the degree of raw material acceptance under the squeeze of downstream product profits.

In early March, the domestic PS market saw a strong upward trend. The spot prices of most brands have increased significantly. According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, as of March 5th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s PS was 9033.33 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase or decrease of+7.54%.
Fundamental analysis
Cost factor: Recently, the styrene market has risen strongly due to the influence of raw materials. The combination of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has driven up international prices of crude oil, as well as a range of chemical products such as pure benzene and ethylene, due to concerns about market supply. In addition, with some styrene units undergoing maintenance and negotiation in March, there is a strong driving force in the current industry, which supports the PS market.
Supply and demand level: Recently, the domestic PS industry has experienced significant stability and small fluctuations. The domestic operating rate has been low for a long time, and the inventory position is controllable. The return of production capacity after the holiday is not obvious, resulting in tight supply of some brands. The scale of downstream product factories such as electrical appliances and packaging gradually increases after the holiday, and the on-site demand strengthens. At the same time, following some price chasing orders, styrene has entered a phase of tight supply and concentrated demand.
Future forecast
In early March, the domestic PS market showed a strong upward trend. The production load of the aggregation plant is stable, and consumer demand for replenishment, rigid demand, and price chasing are all coming out. Business analysts believe that raw materials such as styrene in the upstream of the industrial chain have jumped due to various influences, and with cost support, PS spot prices have risen rapidly. However, due to cost pressures, the improvement of PS company’s profitability is limited. It is expected that the PS market will continue to rise in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East and upstream markets.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, starting from March, supported by the sharp rise in raw material prices, the adipic acid market has heated up and continued to rise. On March 5th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.82% from early March and 3.57% from the end of February.
Raw material market supports the rise of adipic acid market
After the Spring Festival, the adipic acid market briefly rose and then fell weakly. Since March, driven by the rising prices of raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, manufacturers have continuously raised the ex factory price of adipic acid. The market transactions are still acceptable, and the market has experienced a sharp rise, with a two-day increase of nearly 5%. As of March 5th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was around 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton.
The main factors affecting the rise of the adipic acid market in this round are: cost side (core driver): Recently, international oil prices have risen due to geopolitical factors, directly driving the prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone to strengthen. The main reason for the price increase of adipic acid in this round is the support from the cost side.
Supply side (tight support): Industry supply has tightened slightly. The domestic adipic acid production rate has decreased this week; The weekly production decreased compared to the previous period. The tightening of supply is also a driving force behind the rise of adipic acid.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the international oil price is rising rapidly, and pure benzene, as a downstream of crude oil, has strong upward momentum. In the short term, the market for adipic acid still has room for growth.

In March, the high cost of hydrofluoric acid played a game of high pressure and rigid demand, leading to a slight adjustment in market prices. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 4th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 13166.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.77% compared to the previous month.
Raw material side: The supply of raw fluorite is tight, and the price is under pressure at a high level. Due to the delayed resumption of work in some fluorite facilities, the overall supply of raw materials in the market is tight. Due to factors such as mine safety inspections, the circulation of fluorite spot goods is limited, and the willingness of holders to sell at low prices is insufficient. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 4th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3431.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month. The price of sulfuric acid has shown a continuous upward trend, becoming an important force driving up the production cost of hydrogen fluoride. As a key raw material, the rising price of sulfuric acid directly increases the manufacturing cost of hydrogen fluoride enterprises and compresses profit margins. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 4th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 1092.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.31% compared to the beginning of this month (1057.50 yuan/ton). Overall, the upstream cost side prices continue to rise, while the upward trend of hydrofluoric acid prices is weak, leading to an expected expansion of losses for hydrogen fluoride production enterprises. Although manufacturers have strong price support sentiment, price increases are limited by demand follow-up.
Demand side: Resumption of work and replenishment of inventory are parallel, but the procurement pace is relatively slow. The main downstream application areas of refrigerant enterprises are gradually resuming work and production, and the industry’s operating rate has increased. After experiencing a round of consumption, current refrigerant companies and intermediaries generally have low inventory, and there is a demand for urgent replenishment. But the overall procurement pace is slow, and the driving force for hydrofluoric acid prices is limited. Mainly to maintain production balance. It is expected that anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will maintain stable operation.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite sulfuric acid is supported by high levels, while downstream demand is weak, with rigid demand procurement as the main focus and weak demand side support. Under the game of high cost and rigid demand, and with the market remaining stable and watchful, it is expected that the market price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will mainly maintain stable operation in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride rose in February. As of February 28th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 5300.00 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 0.71% from 5262.50 yuan/ton on February 1st.
In terms of supply: In early February, the market for maleic anhydride was weakly consolidated, and the bidding prices of Wanhua fell. The transaction situation was average, and the support for the maleic anhydride market was limited. The prices of the main factories for maleic anhydride continued to fall. In addition, downstream unsaturated resins were gradually shut down and put on vacation, resulting in a gradual decrease in demand for maleic anhydride; After the holiday, the bidding price of Wanhua continued to rise, and the transaction situation was good, which supported the maleic anhydride market. The prices of the main factories of maleic anhydride increased, but the downstream unsaturated resin is still in the early stage of resuming production, and new orders are limited. As of February 28th, the solid anhydride market in Shandong Province operates around a factory price of 5000 yuan/ton, while the liquid anhydride market operates around a factory price of 4750 yuan/ton.
Upstream: In February, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region fluctuated and fell. On February 1st, the price was 6168.67 yuan/ton; On February 28th, the price was 6160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% from the beginning of the month. International crude oil futures have risen, while the price of pure benzene in foreign markets has fluctuated. The confidence in the domestic pure benzene market is average. Shandong pure benzene ground refining has poor shipments, and some manufacturers have slightly lowered their shipping prices.
The n-butane market fluctuated upward in February, with Saudi CP prices continuing to rise by $20 to $540 per ton. The naphtha market in February first rose and then fell, with Shandong n-butane prices at around 4550 yuan per ton as of February 28th.
Downstream: Prior to the Spring Festival, the main downstream unsaturated resin of maleic anhydride gradually stopped and went on vacation, resulting in a decrease in demand for maleic anhydride; After the holiday, the unsaturated resin market has resumed work gradually, and the market situation is mainly wait-and-see, with limited support for unsaturated resin.
Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the main downstream unsaturated resin of maleic anhydride is gradually resuming work; There is currently no inventory pressure from maleic anhydride manufacturers, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market may have an upward trend in the near future.