In October 2026, the domestic butadiene market first fell and then rose, with an overall upward trend. The market price increased from 13840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 14300 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.32%.
In October 2026, the market showed a clear two-stage trend. In the first half of the year, the market was under pressure and fell back, with prices briefly declining. This was mainly due to the release of previous supply increments and cautious downstream buying at high prices. The trading atmosphere in the market was weak, and merchants mainly offered discounts for shipments; After mid month, the market bottomed out and rebounded, gradually opening up a rebound channel, and the price center continued to shift upwards. The core factors driving the rebound of the market are, firstly, temporary load reduction and maintenance of some production facilities, periodic tightening of spot circulation sources, and reluctance of traders to sell and push up prices; Secondly, the cost side of naphtha has a strong oscillation, which supports the bottom of butadiene; At the same time, downstream demand for essential purchases has been released after the price has fallen back to a suitable range, driving the improvement of spot transactions and boosting prices. However, there are always shortcomings on the demand side, with a lack of sustained replenishment power downstream and limited ability to bear high prices, which restricts the upward trend. Therefore, the upward pace in this round is relatively mild, and there has been no rapid rise, resulting in an overall volatile upward trend.
Cost aspect: The mainstream production route of butadiene in China is the by-product of cracking naphtha to produce ethylene, and the prices of crude oil and naphtha are the core variables that determine the bottom line of butadiene cost. This month, international crude oil fluctuated widely, with a strong overall focus, which was transmitted to the domestic market. The price of naphtha fluctuated synchronously with crude oil, and the fluctuation range was relatively controllable. The strengthening of the naphtha market has raised the comprehensive production costs of cracking units, providing sustained bottom support for the price of butadiene and compressing the downward space of the market. However, the rising pace of the raw material side is mild, and the upward driving force is limited, making it unable to dominate the butadiene market alone. The rebound in butadiene prices this month is mainly driven by changes in spot supply and demand, and the cost is more of a “bottoming out and preventing decline” function, rather than the core driving force behind this round of price increases. The cost pressure caused by fluctuations in raw materials is partially transmitted downstream during the rise in butadiene prices, but the transmission efficiency is limited, and the raw material cost pressure of downstream rubber and ABS enterprises increases synchronously. As of October 27th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States is $99.90 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January contract is $115.81 per barrel.

Supply side:
In October, the overall production level of butadiene in China was relatively high, and mainstream refineries did not have large-scale centralized maintenance plans. The overall supply base of the industry was sufficient, which was a long-term factor that suppressed the sustained rise in the market. The supply rhythm exhibits a phased characteristic of alternating tightness and looseness: all devices operate stably in the first ten days, and the early maintenance devices resume production one after another. The market’s available supply of goods increases, and spot supply is loose, bringing downward pressure to the market; Starting from mid month, multiple cracking units have experienced a reduction in the circulation of goods in some areas due to equipment maintenance and planned load adjustments. The expectation of tight spot prices has also increased, becoming a key positive factor driving the market rebound. Refinery inventory changes synchronously with the market trend. In the first half of the year, when the market weakened, the pressure on refinery shipments increased, and they actively lowered prices to promote inventory clearance; After the mid month price recovery, the speed of inventory digestion in refineries accelerated, inventory pressure eased, and the willingness to raise prices significantly increased. There is obvious regional differentiation, with relatively abundant supply of goods in the main production areas and consumption distribution centers affected by the pace of goods, resulting in temporary tight supply of goods and widening regional price differences. Overall, there is no long-term expectation of significant reduction on the supply side, relying solely on scattered and short-term device adjustments to bring temporary market opportunities.
The listed price of butadiene for each sales company of Sinopec is 13900 yuan/ton as of October 28th, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to September 28th.
Demand side:
The downstream of butadiene is mainly concentrated in butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, ABS resin, and the terminal corresponds to the fields of tires, shoe materials, plastic products, etc. This month, the overall downstream maintains a rigid procurement mode, lacking sustained incremental benefits. The consumer dividend of the previous “Golden September and Silver October” gradually faded in early October, with orders in the tire terminal market falling short of expectations, the speed of finished product inventory reduction slowing down, and tire factories operating at a moderate level without concentrated load lifting actions; Rubber products and shoe material orders are flat, putting pressure on finished product sales. With the mid month price drop of butadiene, downstream enterprises have moderately replenished their inventory at low prices, driving a wave of temporary transaction recovery and supporting price rebound; But after the continuous rise in butadiene prices, downstream finished product costs increased, and the transmission of rubber and ABS products following the price increase was not smooth. The processing profits of enterprises continued to compress, and their resistance to high priced butadiene increased. They quickly stopped replenishing inventory and returned to the on-demand procurement mode. The on-site transactions are mainly small and medium-sized essential orders, with scarce large orders and unsustainable demand follow-up. Whenever prices rise, procurement quickly cools down, becoming the core negative factor limiting the price increase of butadiene.

Market forecast:
In the short term, the domestic butadiene market may continue to fluctuate within a certain range, with mixed long and short factors and insufficient one-sided trend driven market. On the supply side, most of the maintenance windows for mainstream refineries in China have ended, and the start-up of facilities is expected to remain high. The overall supply of goods is sufficient, and without a new centralized maintenance plan, it is difficult for the supply side to have sustained reduction benefits; There are only sporadic temporary negative disturbances, and the positive trend is short-term. On the demand side, it is difficult for downstream rubber and ABS terminal demand to show significant improvement, and the recovery of terminal consumption such as tires is weak. The problem of downstream finished product transmission still exists, and the ability to undertake high priced raw materials is weak. It is highly likely that the pace of demand driven procurement will continue, and the expectation of large-scale centralized replenishment is low. At the cost level, there is still uncertainty in the fluctuations of crude oil and naphtha, and the bottom support of costs is still present, but the upward driving force is limited. Based on comprehensive judgment, if there are no sudden large-scale plant shutdowns, downstream centralized replenishment and other strong stimulus benefits, the possibility of a sharp rise or fall in butadiene prices is relatively small, and the market will fluctuate within the supply and demand game range. Subsequent focus will be on tracking the maintenance status of refinery equipment, downstream rubber and ABS operating loads, and crude oil and naphtha price trends.

In the past week (October 21-27), the domestic PA6 spot market has fluctuated and risen slightly, with mainstream production enterprises raising their prices by up to 400 yuan/ton, while the PA6 benchmark price remains at 15000 yuan/ton. In terms of technical indicators, the 5-day and 10 day moving averages have risen, while the 20 day moving averages have remained flat, showing a strong rebound signal. However, the direction of the moving averages has not been fully synchronized, and a clear unilateral upward trend has not been formed; The 60 day cycle price is in a high range on the cycle position, and the short-term upward space is limited.
The influencing factors include a cost reduction of 160 yuan/ton in the third week settlement price of Sinopec Caprolactam upstream, which has caused a negative impact on the raw material side. However, this adjustment has not yet been transmitted to PA6 finished products. The high raw material prices in the early stage still provide a certain cost support for slicing, and the processing profits of aggregation enterprises continue to be compressed. The pure benzene market fluctuated narrowly without significant fluctuations, which limited its ability to further pull or exert pressure on caprolactam.
On the supply and demand side, the overall operation of PA6 polymerization plants in China has remained at a moderate level, and some enterprises have flexibly adjusted their inventory levels according to their own needs. The supply of spot goods in the market is still acceptable; After a round of price increases in the early stage, factory inventory has been partially digested, and holders have a strong willingness to raise prices, reducing the phenomenon of low-priced shipments. On the demand side, there is a strong demand for follow-up and high price resistance. Downstream nylon spinning and modified injection molding continue to operate normally, with limited growth during the autumn and winter peak seasons. There is no significant increase in terminal orders, and downstream factories mostly purchase on demand. There is a lack of willingness to stock up on a large scale, and there is a high resistance to high priced goods transactions. There is room for negotiation on actual orders.
In the short term, PA6 is expected to maintain a volatile bullish pattern in the future market forecast. The cost support brought by the high raw material prices in the early stage is still present, and enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, with short-term upward momentum; However, the current price is at a high level in the 60 day cycle, and downstream acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited. Coupled with the subsequent transmission risk of the weekly settlement price of caprolactam, it is difficult for the market to continue to rise sharply, and we need to be alert to the risk of a pullback driven by cost decline.

At the beginning of the week, the price of potassium sulfate with 50% content was 3900 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the price of potassium sulfate with 50% content was 3800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.56% in price.
This week’s Mannheim potassium sulfate (processed) 52% powder: the average factory price is about 3850 yuan/ton (some low-end factories have dropped to 3700 yuan/ton). The average factory price of 50% powder is about 3750 yuan/ton (some low-end products have dropped to 3600 yuan/ton). The continuous decline in the price of potassium chloride raw materials has weakened the cost support for potassium sulfate, causing some manufacturers to offer discounts and lower the overall transaction center of the market.
Demand side: The autumn fertilizer cycle has ended, and downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have a low operating rate, only maintaining a small amount of essential replenishment, lacking large-scale centralized procurement, market trading is sluggish, and actual transactions are few. The overall supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and some traders are competing to sell goods in order to recoup funds at the end of the year. Low priced goods are impacting the market, exacerbating downward pressure on prices.
Prediction: The short-term market demand for potassium sulfate is weak, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

This week, nickel prices first rose and then fell. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 121566.67 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the beginning of the week and down 0.65% year-on-year.
Macroscopically, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October is about 83%, but the expectation of a rate hike in December remains strong. The US dollar index oscillates around 101.7, and long-term US bond yields remain high, putting continued pressure on colored valuations. Domestically, the limit of 550 billion yuan of local government bonds has been issued, but the transmission to nickel terminal consumption is not yet obvious. At the macro level, the qualitative assessment of nickel prices is that it does not constitute an additional bearish shock in the short term, but it cannot provide upward driving force, and the financial attribute side maintains a neutral bias state.
In terms of raw materials, Indonesia’s RKAB quota for 2026 has been revised to about 290 million tons, an increase of about 30 million tons from the initial setting. The HMA benchmark price has also been lowered, and the mining cost anchor continues to loosen. Although there is rainfall disturbance in the main production areas of the Philippines, mines have taken advantage of the good weather window to speed up shipments, resulting in high port arrivals and a slight decline in nickel ore prices. The core signal on the raw material side is clear: local supply disruptions are not sufficient to offset the overall easing brought about by Indonesia’s quota expansion, and cost support is still shifting downward.
On the supply side: The biggest variable on the supply side this week comes from multiple Chinese nickel companies discussing rumors of a joint production cut of about 30% by Indonesia’s HPAL plant, which once triggered concentrated short selling and price rebound. But the RKAB quota has substantially increased, and Indonesia’s smelting capacity is still increasing. The global surplus pattern has not changed due to the “negotiated production reduction”. As of October 21st, LME nickel inventory was 280900 tons, and the previous warehouse receipt was 91000 tons, with absolute levels still at historical highs. The suppression of rebound space by inventory continues to exist.
On the demand side, the production schedule of stainless steel 300 series in October continued to decline compared to the previous month, and the profits of steel mills were inverted. There is a strong willingness to lower the price of nickel iron, and procurement is only maintained for essential needs. In terms of new energy, ternary precursors are subject to lithium iron phosphate pressure, resulting in weak production and limited incremental purchases of nickel sulfate; In September, the production of ternary materials decreased by about 10.7% month on month, and the precursor decreased by about 7.8% month on month. Neither of the two main demand paths provides marginal increments, meaning that any rebound driven by supply side sentiment lacks substantial downstream support.
Influencing factors: The core contradiction of the current nickel price is not whether there is an excess, but to what extent and at what speed the expected reduction in production can correct the excess already included in the price. If the HPAL joint production reduction goes from “discussion” to “substantive implementation”, there is still room for short-term short covering; If the news is falsified or the reduction in production falls short of expectations, there is a risk of a rebound in the early stage. At the same time, the actual release pace of Indonesia’s RKAB quota will determine the speed of cost reduction at the mining end, and together they will constitute the main source of price fluctuations next week.

In summary, macroeconomic suppression has not been eliminated → mining costs continue to decline → supply side “expected production cuts” can only provide pulse like emotional support, unable to reverse the overall surplus → demand side stainless steel and new energy weaken synchronously, and the rebound lacks downstream absorption → high inventory constitutes a hard constraint above. This week’s price trend itself has confirmed this chain: rumors of production cuts in the first half of the week drove a rebound, but in the second half, it returned to weakness. Short term nickel prices are expected to experience short-term regional fluctuations.

Since October, the spot market for styrene butadiene rubber has been fluctuating and declining, with a price of 16175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, it was boosted by the strength of crude oil and butadiene, rising to 16833 yuan/ton. Subsequently, downstream resistance to high prices led to a slight decline in the center of gravity around 16133 yuan/ton. As of the 21st, the price has dropped by 3.01% compared to the previous month.
Geopolitical disturbances have pushed up crude oil prices, driving butadiene to operate at a high level. However, with the resumption of cracking units and an increase in imported goods, butadiene supply has gradually eased, resulting in a slight decline in prices. Since October, there has been a contraction in the supply of styrene units due to maintenance and load reduction, supported by low port inventory. However, downstream ABS, PS, and EPS have weak willingness to receive goods, and there is insufficient follow-up on demand, which has constrained the increase in styrene prices. As of October 21st, the price of butadiene was 13233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% from 13550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of October 21st, the price of styrene was 11014 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.81% from 10610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The domestic styrene butadiene plant has been operating at around 70% capacity, with minimal maintenance and no obvious destocking or accumulation, making it difficult for the supply side to form strong support.
After the holiday, the dividends of the peak season of Golden September have faded, and the demand for all steel tires is weak. The inventory of tire products is slow, and profits are under pressure. Many enterprises just need to purchase and avoid hoarding. The demand for non tire materials such as shoe materials and rubber hoses is flat and lacks increment. Insufficient support for styrene butadiene rubber.
Market forecast:
Technically speaking, from the spot moving average chart, the current spot price of styrene butadiene rubber has fallen below the short-term 5-day and 10 day moving averages, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. The medium to long term moving average (20/30/60 days) is still upward, and the medium-term upward trend has not been broken, forming a support range. Short term indicators have turned around, indicating a need for a pullback to digest profit taking orders. Predict a weak consolidation of short-term fluctuations, supported by the medium to long-term moving average below; If the support is held, the market may stabilize and rebound again. If it effectively falls below the moving average, the downside space will expand.
Fundamentally speaking, in the short term, styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate at a high level, with strong resistance above. Without centralized replenishment, it will be difficult to stand firm, and cost and rigid demand support will limit the potential for deep decline. In the medium to long term, as we enter the traditional off-season of November and December, demand will further weaken, and the price center is prone to decline but difficult to rise. If the support of crude oil collapses, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the fourth quarter will drop significantly.