According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in June, the aniline market fell, and the mainstream domestic price dropped to 7100-7150 yuan/ton. Downstream demand is weak, on-site inventory pressure is increasing, and factories are lowering prices to ship. Subsequently, crude oil prices fluctuated and rose, boosting the market for raw material pure benzene and stabilizing the aniline market. In the future, the inventory of raw material pure benzene at ports is relatively high, and the resistance to further increase is increasing. We will closely monitor changes in crude oil and expect the aniline market to consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of soda ash has fallen this week. As of May 30th, the average market price of soda ash was 1386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% compared to the soda ash price of 1384 yuan/ton on May 24th, and a decrease of 1.56% compared to the beginning of the month.
2、 Market analysis
The soda ash market has been weak this week. The operating rate of the supply side equipment has not changed much compared to last week, and the market supply of goods has increased, resulting in increased sales pressure for soda ash enterprises; The demand side is mainly wait-and-see, terminal trading is sluggish, downstream market conditions are falling, support for soda ash is weak, soda ash companies have a poor mentality, and the market transaction center is weakly lowered.
As of May 30th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1280-1450 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a downward adjustment of 20-50 yuan/ton; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1250-1400 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a reduction of 20 yuan/ton.
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market is weakly consolidated. From May 24th to 30th, the price of glass decreased from 14.40 yuan/square meter to 14.38 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.14%. The production of glass market equipment has not changed much, and downstream demand has shown weak performance, mainly consuming inventory. The destocking of glass is sluggish, and the market price center continues to decline.
Future forecast: Currently, some soda ash facilities are undergoing maintenance, and the market capacity utilization rate is not high. Soda ash companies have strong quotations, but the downstream transaction atmosphere is insufficient, and the demand for soda ash is limited. The on-site supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is expected that the soda ash market will be weak in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

Recently, the asphalt market has seen a slight upward trend, with a continuous decrease in spot supply in the North China region. There has been a strong upward trend in spot asphalt prices, with offers ranging from 5-20 yuan/ton. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong Province was 3580 yuan/ton on May 20th, and as of the 29th, the price was 3620 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. Overall, demand is gradually recovering and trading is good.
In terms of supply, as the end of the month approaches, most refineries have completed their monthly plans and are in an intermittent shutdown state. The overall production capacity and operating rate have declined, and the weekly asphalt production has dropped to 480000 tons. The operating rate of 77 heavy-duty asphalt enterprises is less than 28%, which is at a low level during the same period. It is expected that the planned production for June will be 2.3 million tons, with a significant increase.
From a demand perspective, the overall asphalt market is still gradually recovering, but the overall recovery situation is not as expected. From a seasonal perspective, the temperature in the north is warming up, and the demand level is expected to continue to rise until the third quarter. This is expected to be a strong support for the steady improvement of asphalt in the later period. However, with the arrival of the rainy season in the south, construction is limited, and overall demand is lower than expected.
From a cost perspective, crude oil prices are maintaining a fluctuating and slightly declining trend, and there is still a lack of obvious upward driving factors for crude oil in the future. In the short term, crude oil will continue to operate weakly, which will also exert some pressure on the trend of asphalt.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the spot circulation at the end of the month has decreased, and asphalt is expected to maintain its upward trend. It is expected that the total output of asphalt in June will be 2.3 million tons, and the supply will have a significant upward trend. The southern rainy season will suppress market demand, and the peak season demand in North China is approaching. On the other hand, the improvement in consumption is insufficient, and the short-term outlook is relatively optimistic. Asphalt will also perform strongly in the oil industry in the short term, and the overall market space is limited.

On May 30th, the average market price in East China was 251610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.32% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 250000 to 252000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 251000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8630 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Shanghai Tin continued its downward trend in the morning session, with the recent and far month basis spread of the spot market widening. As of the second trading session, the price fluctuated weakly, and the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2507 closed down 2.87% on the 30th.
Recently, rumors in the market about the need to pay relevant fees for resuming production in the Wa region have sparked strong reactions. As a result, there has been a significant fluctuation in spot prices, and smelters have been limited in trading volume due to holding prices and being reluctant to sell. Despite the recent continuous decline in prices, the purchasing willingness of downstream users is gradually increasing, and the number of low-priced acquisitions has also increased. At present, the market activity has significantly increased compared to before, and it is understood that some traders are also more actively seeking shipping opportunities. With the improvement of transaction conditions at the end of the month, the operation of low-priced replenishment has become relatively smooth, and it is expected that inventory levels may decrease as a result.
In terms of follow-up, it is heard that Xiaopai is around 400 yuan/ton for the average price in June, Yunzi Tou is around 700 yuan/ton for the average price in June, and Yunxi is around 1000 yuan/ton for the average price in June.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market showed a “inverted V” trend in May. As of May 29th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6522 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69% from the beginning of the month. The cost increase in the first half of the month has driven the price of polyester staple fiber more, but in the second half, with the weakening of raw material support and stagnant demand, the price of polyester staple fiber has weakened. Looking at the future market:
The current settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the US crude oil market is $61.84 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures is $64.32 per barrel. Trump has postponed imposing tariffs on the European Union, but OPEC and its allies are considering another significant increase in production, so the oil market is weighing the short-term prospects of easing trade tensions and increasing OPEC+supply.
Recently, with the restoration of PX benefits, some domestic and foreign facilities have increased their capacity, and early-stage maintenance facilities have gradually restarted. For example, the 1.6 million ton facilities of Zhongjin Petrochemical and the 4 million ton facilities of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been restarted in advance, resulting in a gradual increase in PX supply. The gradual reduction in downstream polyester production, weakened supply and demand margins, and limited support for crude oil prices have put significant upward pressure on PX. However, as the downstream PTA load gradually increases, the short-term supply and demand of PX are good, and the current spot market supply is tight, PX is still relatively resistant to decline.
In May, PTA plants underwent centralized maintenance, and in the latter half of the year, PTA plants were gradually restarted. As of the end of the month, the PTA industry’s operating rate was around 78%. In terms of price, the domestic PTA spot market in May showed a trend of first rising and then falling. As of May 29th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4972 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.47% from the beginning of the month. After the repair of the disk processing fee, the implementation of device maintenance in June and July may not meet expectations. New production capacity such as Honggang Petrochemical Phase III and Hailun Petrochemical Phase III will be put into operation from June to August, with a focus on loose supply in the long term.
Under the sharp rise in raw material prices, downstream yarn factories have expanded their losses, and pure polyester yarn processing fees continue to be under pressure, resulting in insufficient repair power. In addition, with the expectation of China’s export rush to the United States gradually coming to an end in late June and the arrival of the off-season for domestic sales, the production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 70%, and the atmosphere of raw fabric orders has once again fallen, making it difficult to raise fabric prices. After stocking up at a low level at the terminal, the main focus is on digesting raw material inventory, and cautious observation is needed for first-time purchases.
Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that crude oil prices are dominated by geopolitical risks and policy games, and unexpected events may drive up oil price volatility. The increase in supply brought about by the launch of new PTA production capacity and the restart of maintenance facilities will suppress the upward space of PTA prices. The cost support will be weakened. On the demand side, the domestic and foreign trade orders at the terminal are weak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream is pessimistic about the future market, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, so the pressure on the staple fiber factory to destock is increasing. Short term short fiber prices are expected to follow fluctuations in crude oil prices, and there is still a downside risk overall.