Author Archives: lubon

Insufficient cost support, domestic isobutyraldehyde price fell by 2.59% this week

1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market in China dropped from 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8776.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 2.59%, and the weekend price increased by 19.55% year-on-year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a slight decline in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

 

The propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6992.6 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6948.60 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.82% over the weekend. At the beginning of the week, propylene prices saw a slight decline due to the dual negative impact of weak crude oil and weak demand.

 

From the perspective of downstream demand, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly declined, with the market price dropping from 10666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10633.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.31%, and the weekend price dropping by 1.84% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, with high enterprise production and average downstream demand, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

In late March, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline. The upstream propylene market has experienced a slight decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for new pentanediol has also experienced a slight decline, leading to high levels of enterprise production and weakened downstream procurement enthusiasm. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analyst believes that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

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Fluctuations in the asphalt market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 11th to 15th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3569 yuan/ton to 3592 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64%, a month on month decrease of 0.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.57%. The current demand for asphalt is relatively scarce, and the atmosphere for low-priced spot trading is still acceptable, while the demand for high prices is average. The market recovery is slow, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient. The overall performance of asphalt is weak.

 

On the supply side, in terms of the main production enterprises, Xinjiang Meihuite has stabilized the production of asphalt and Yunnan Petrochemical has stabilized the production, driving up the utilization rate of refinery capacity in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased compared to the previous month, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

 

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The US EIA inventory data is positive, coupled with Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries, geopolitical tensions have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. As of March 14th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $85.42 per barrel, an increase of $1.39 or 1.7%.

 

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt market varies slightly in different regions. In the northern region, the demand for essential goods is slowly recovering, but actual demand is weak. In the southern region, some rainy and cloudy weather may hinder essential goods, but actual essential goods are still relatively flat, with a small amount of inbound demand being the main demand. The demand side of the asphalt market is bearish.

 

As of the close of March 15th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 2541 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2571 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2535 yuan/ton. It closed at 2565 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 43% or 1.70% from the previous trading day’s settlement, with a trading volume of 1086545 lots and a holding volume of 934243 lots, and a daily increase of 39413.

 

In the future market forecast, although the significant increase in international crude oil has provided significant support for refinery costs, it is not strong enough to stimulate the market in the current situation of weak supply and demand. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be weak in the short term, with consolidation being the main trend.

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This week, the titanium tetrachloride market remained stable (3.11-3.14)

The titanium chloride market remained stable this Thursday. As of March 14th, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride at Shengyishe was 10425.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.88% compared to the beginning of this month (10625.00 yuan/ton).

 

The market price of liquid chlorine on the raw material side fluctuates. The market price of high titanium slag has weakened, and the market operation is basically stable. The downstream sponge titanium market for titanium tetrachloride has good demand, and currently the supply and demand are basically balanced.

 

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that in the short term, market demand is stable and the price of titanium tetrachloride will remain stable.

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Demand rebounds, with cobalt prices falling first and then rising in March

Cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded in March

 

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on March 13th was 218800 yuan/ton, which decreased and then increased compared to the cobalt price of 218600 yuan/ton on March 1st, with an increase of 0.09%; The cobalt price has increased by 0.55% compared to 217600 yuan/ton on March 6th. During the Spring Festival, during the off-season of the automotive market, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China decreased year-on-year; After the end of the holiday, construction resumed, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased, global production and sales of new energy vehicles increased, demand rebounded, and cobalt prices fell first and then rose in March.

 

Domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased

 

According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 464000 and 477000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16% and 9.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.252 million and 1.207 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 29.4%, and a market share of 30%.

 

The China Passenger Car Association released an analysis of the national passenger car market for February 2024. In terms of wholesale sales, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 447000 units in February, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% and a month on month decrease of 35.0%. In terms of retail sales, the new energy vehicle market sold 388000 units in February, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% and a month on month decrease of 42.1%.

 

In February, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the market decreased. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the market increased. The Ministry of Commerce has shown significant results in promoting the “100 City Linkage” Automobile Festival and the “Thousand Counties and Ten Thousand Towns” New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season, with continuous efforts in promoting consumption policies in multiple regions, stimulating more demand for car purchases. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase, and the demand for cobalt in the future is expected to rebound.

 

Rising sales of power batteries

 

According to data released by South Korean research firm SNE Research, in January 2024, the global registered installed capacity of electric vehicle batteries was approximately 51.5 GWh, an increase of 60.6% compared to the same period last year.

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in February, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 43.6GWh, a decrease of 33.1% month on month and 3.6% year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 108.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%. In terms of sales, in February, the total sales of power and other batteries in China were 37.4 GWh, a decrease of 34.6% month on month and 10.1% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of power batteries were 33.5 GWh, accounting for 89.8%, a decrease of 33.4% month on month and 7.6% year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 94.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%; Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 83.9GWh, accounting for 88.8%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 31.3%. In terms of vehicle installation volume, in February, China’s power battery installation volume was 18.0 GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1% and a month on month decrease of 44.4%. Among them, the installation volume of ternary batteries was 6.9 GWh, accounting for 38.7% of the total installation volume, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% and a month on month decrease of 44.9%. From January to February, the cumulative installed volume of power batteries in China was 50.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%; The cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries is 19.5Wh, accounting for 38.9% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 60.8%.

 

In February, the production, sales, and installed capacity of power batteries in China decreased significantly compared to the previous month, while the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased significantly compared to the previous month, with a slight year-on-year increase; The production, sales, and installed capacity of power batteries increased significantly year-on-year from January to February. The global electric vehicle battery installation volume increased significantly year-on-year from January to February, leading to an increase in demand in the cobalt market.

 

According to a report released by market research company Rho Motion, global sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles increased by 3% year-on-year in February 2024, reaching 800000 units. In February, sales in the European market increased by 12% year-on-year, while sales in the US and Canada markets increased by 31%. However, sales in the Chinese market decreased by 12%. Global electric vehicle sales have increased year-on-year, which is favorable for the demand in the cobalt market.

 

Overview and Outlook

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at Business Society, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, while the production, sales, and installed capacity of power batteries have also increased year-on-year. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has also increased year-on-year, and the global production and sales of electric vehicles have also increased year-on-year, leading to an increase in demand in the global cobalt market. Overall, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, with an increase in demand for cobalt and a recovery in demand. In March, cobalt prices first fell and then rose. In the future, demand is expected to recover, and cobalt prices are expected to slowly rise.

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The price of imported potassium chloride fell by 2.80% this week (3.4-3.10)

1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 2675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2600 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.47%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to data statistics, the final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai over the weekend is around 2700-2860 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2350-2400 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2500-2600 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2300 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream potassium chloride distributors have slightly decreased during the week.

 

PVA

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly declined this week, dropping from 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7300 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.41%, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.78% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5112.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5087.50 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.49%. The weekend price fell 14.45% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride continues to be sluggish, with manufacturers mainly purchasing on demand.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

In mid to late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

 

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