In early February, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell, with most spot prices of various grades being lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 9th, the average price of ABS sample products was 9187.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.74% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since February, the load of the domestic ABS industry has remained stable with small fluctuations, with an overall slight decrease within the range. The Tianjin Dagu plant has been shut down to carry out blowing tasks, and the overall operating level of the industry has been reduced by about 3% to 64%, with an average weekly output of less than 140000 tons. The inventory position of aggregation enterprises continues to decline at around 190000 tons, and the supply on site remains tightly balanced. Overall, the stage of supply and demand in the ABS market is not significant, and the supply side has increased its support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: Within the first ten days of February, the upstream three materials market of ABS rebounded after rising, which weakened the impact on the cost side of ABS. Acrylonitrile rose upstream at the beginning of the month, but the new acrylonitrile plant of Yulong Petrochemical was put into operation, resulting in an increase in supply to the northern market. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot buying has weakened, and the acrylonitrile market has significantly fallen after rising.
The butadiene market is showing a high-level downward trend. Last month, the cost side crude oil prices were relatively high, strengthening bottom support. As the Spring Festival approaches and downstream stocking ends before the holiday, the support for essential needs weakens. In addition, the industry load remained strong during the Spring Festival period, and the expected accumulation of inventory in the future led to a weak consolidation of the market due to the loose supply and demand pattern. However, the low inventory level in the early stage and the linkage with the external market have formed multiple benefits, and it is expected that the space for a significant decline in styrene prices is limited.
The styrene market also experienced a high-level decline. In the early stage, the resumption of work in the domestic industry did not meet expectations, while the maintenance of overseas styrene plants increased. The increase in inquiries and actual transactions for China’s styrene exports further drove the depletion of port inventory. But recently, some devices have returned and the supply side has rebounded. In addition, the situation in the Middle East has gradually exhausted the favorable crude oil prices, and the raw material pure benzene is trading sideways at a high level, lacking further guidance on the fundamentals of styrene. It is expected that the styrene market will continue to consolidate during the Spring Festival period.
On the demand side: In early February, there was no significant increase in consumption in the downstream electrical housing industry of ABS, and the improvement in profitability of end enterprises was limited. As the Spring Festival approaches and pre holiday stocking is basically over, buyers have little willingness to continue reducing their inventory. On exchange trading is gradually entering a bottleneck, but there are still some high chasing orders being executed. The current inventory position of merchants is not high, and the quotes between enterprises and merchants are firm. Overall, the demand side is supporting the ABS market to level off.
Future forecast
Before the holiday, the domestic ABS market was weakly consolidating. The production load of the aggregation plant has remained stable with a slight decrease, and the supply on site has maintained a tight balance. After the rise of costs and materials, they have fallen back. Business analysts believe that the macro level ABS supply-demand imbalance pattern still exists, but the strong momentum of buying orders at low prices at the beginning of the year has eased production and sales pressure. The stocking before the New Year’s Eve has been basically completed, and coupled with the significant increase in the previous period, buyers’ acceptance of prices has declined. It is expected that ABS may enter a calm consolidation market in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 6th, the average market price of acetic acid was 2753.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76.67 yuan/ton or 2.71% compared to the price of 2830.00 yuan/ton on February 1st.
This week (2.1-2.6), domestic acetic acid prices continued to decline. On the supply side, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity fluctuated narrowly, and the intention of enterprises to ship increased. Downstream pre holiday stocking sentiment was not high, and market purchases were followed up on demand. The market trading atmosphere was poor, and in order to promote shipments, vinegar prices generally fell, resulting in a weak downward trend in the acetic acid market during the week.
Recently, the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated weakly. As of February 6th, the average price in the domestic market was 2223 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% compared to the price of 2265 yuan/ton on February 1st. The high inventory of methanol in the port market and average downstream procurement have led to a downward shift in the price center, resulting in a weakening of the spot market. The domestic methanol market has poor trading, with limited new transactions on the market and weak supply and demand performance. Methanol prices have declined, and the pressure on acetic acid from the cost side has weakened.
The downstream acetic anhydride market saw a narrow decline, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride dropping from 4590 yuan/ton to 4565 yuan/ton from February 1st to 6th, a decrease of 0.51%. The operating rate of acetic anhydride on the supply side is not high, and downstream entry into the market is mainly based on demand. Enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and the price of acetic anhydride on the raw material side is weakening. The negative impact on cost is driving the weak operation of acetic anhydride prices in the upstream.
In terms of future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is not much expected fluctuation in the operating rate of domestic acetic acid plants before the holiday, and companies are maintaining their shipping pace. Downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively weak. It is expected that the acetic acid market will stabilize and operate in the later stage, and attention will be paid to the market supply situation in the future.

This week, Yulong’s new equipment was put into operation, and the supply in the northern market increased. Coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, spot gas purchases have weakened, and the acrylonitrile market has fallen after rising. As of February 6th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 7300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply increase:
During the week, the new 130000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant on Shandong Yulong Second Line was successfully put into operation, and the supply in the northern market increased. The total acrylonitrile production capacity base was adjusted to 5.579 million tons/year, and the production increased slightly while the operation decreased slightly. According to statistics, as of February 5th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 68.92%, which is -0.1% higher than the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 80400 tons, which is+0.18 million tons compared to the previous cycle. Before the holiday, suppliers actively reduced prices to reduce inventory, while supply in the East China region was limited. At the same time, downstream users still had a small amount of stock, and enterprise inventory continued to decline. As of February 5th, the total inventory was around 46000 tons, an increase of -0.4 million tons from last week.
Increased demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile has fluctuated. Among them, the ABS capacity utilization rate was 64.4%, a decrease of -1.7% compared to last week. The 400000 tons/year ABS plant in Dagu, Tianjin, was affected by weather and operated at 60% on February 2nd, lasting for 2-3 days; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 82.75%, an increase of 16.75% compared to last week. Jilin Petrochemical’s acrylic fiber plant has been restarted; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 52.39%, which is 5.79% higher than last week. Factories in Henan and other places are closed for vacation, resulting in an overall increase in demand for acrylonitrile.
Cost increase:
During the week, upstream propylene prices continued to rise, and the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production increased. However, acrylonitrile prices remained relatively high, thus improving the production loss situation this week. According to statistics, as of February 5th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6440 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6400 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 8600 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.34%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period is -820 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 271 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, although the supply in the East China region is limited, with the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical’s new plant and the planned restart of the 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Jihua (Jieyang) on February 10th, the market supply will increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market buying gas will gradually decrease, and the short-term market is expected to experience a narrow decline.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6193.33 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.43% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 6283.33 yuan/ton on January 21st. Starting from late January, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The price of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the price of industrial naphthalene is fluctuating and falling, the cost is decreasing, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises has dropped to about 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is tight; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell.
The cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the supply has tightened
On February 5th, Sinopec quoted 6400 yuan/ton for ortho benzene, which stabilized compared to the 6400 yuan/ton price on January 21st. In February, the price of industrial naphthalene in East China was 4200-4400 yuan/ton, a decrease from the quoted price of 4350-4700 yuan/ton in late January, and the cost of phthalic anhydride decreased. In February, the operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment decreased to 61%, resulting in a decrease in production and a tightening of phthalic anhydride supply.
Demand side: DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5th, the DOP price was 7925.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.25% compared to the DOP price of 8025.84 yuan/ton on February 2nd. The operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises remains stable at around 65%, DOP production remains stable, and the demand for phthalic anhydride still exists.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has stabilized, the price of industrial naphthalene has dropped significantly, the price of raw materials has decreased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased. On the supply side, the production of phthalic anhydride enterprises has decreased, the output of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the supply of phthalic anhydride has tightened. In the future, the cost of phthalic anhydride will decrease, coupled with tight supply and stable demand, and it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and stabilize.

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 31st, the price of isooctanol was 7880 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 13.93% compared to the price of 6916.67 yuan/ton on January 1st; On February 4th, the price of isooctanol was 7716.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07% from the price of 7880 yuan/ton on January 31st. In January, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises increased to 9.5%, and the supply of isooctanol was sufficient. In the latter half of the year, some isooctanol enterprises underwent maintenance, and the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises decreased to 90%; The price of propylene has risen significantly, and the cost support of isooctanol has increased. The price of isooctanol increased significantly in January. In February, the prices of plasticizers fell from a high level, propylene prices fell, costs decreased, and demand fell. In February, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell.
Isooctanol manufacturers start production at a high level and fall back
In January, the production rate of isooctanol manufacturers increased, with a domestic isooctanol production rate of about 95%. The production of isooctanol increased, but in the latter half of the year, isooctanol enterprises underwent maintenance, and the production rate dropped to 90%. The supply of isooctanol decreased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol still exists.
The cost of raw material propylene has significantly increased
As of January 31st, the price of propylene was 6404.33 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 12.01% compared to the price of 5717.67 yuan/ton on January 1st; On February 2nd, the price of propylene was 6391 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.47% compared to the price of 6421 yuan/ton on January 27th. In January, the price of propylene increased significantly, with increased support for raw material prices and rising costs of isooctanol. The support for the increase in isooctanol prices increased, but in the latter half of the year, the price of propylene fell, the cost of isooctanol decreased, and the support for the increase in isooctanol prices weakened.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 31st, the DOP price was 8017.50 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 9.44% compared to the January 1st DOP price of 7325.84 yuan/ton; On February 4th, the DOP price was 7950.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the January 31st DOP price of 8017.50 yuan/ton. In January, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises slightly decreased, with an operating rate of about 63%, and DOP production decreased compared to the previous month; Due to rising costs and decreasing supply, the price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly in January, and downstream demand for isooctanol increased, providing greater support. In February, DOP enterprises saw a slight increase in production, leading to an increase in plasticizer supply. In addition, as stocking before the Spring Festival approached its end and demand declined, plasticizer prices fell in February, resulting in a decrease in demand support and a weakening of support for the rise of isooctanol.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, the price of raw material propylene has significantly increased, and the driving force for the rise of isooctanol has increased. In terms of supply, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has increased, and the supply of isooctanol has increased; In terms of demand, DOP enterprises have started to increase production, resulting in an increase in DOP output and increased support for isooctanol demand. In terms of the future, the price of propylene fell in February, the cost support for isooctanol weakened, and the Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end. Plasticizer companies started production slightly in February, and the demand support for isooctanol still exists. The cost support has weakened, and the demand support still exists. The downward pressure on isooctanol has increased, and the upward support still exists. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will weaken and stabilize in the future.