1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (6.9-13), the PVC spot market reversed its decline and prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4950 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.17% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: The PVC spot market atmosphere improved this week, reversing the previous decline. Driven by the crude oil and futures markets, the spot market slightly climbed this week. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable this week. In the early stage, companies that had reduced their operating costs have taken actions to increase their costs, resulting in a slight increase in operating rates. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.
On the cost side: The market price of calcium carbide remained stable this week, and the market entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly increase or decrease of calcium carbide was zero. The increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and the linkage between upstream and downstream has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4650-4750 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that PVC supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers this week is generally higher than last week. Although the inventory of enterprises continues to decrease, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly driven by the improvement of market sentiment and the rise in crude oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, and the lack of sustained improvement in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the focus of the domestic PTA spot market slightly shifted this week (June 9-13). As of June 13, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4932 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.99% from the beginning of the month. Geopolitics is heating up, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices is helping to strengthen costs. However, there are expectations of weakening on the supply and demand sides, and there is insufficient support on the demand side, resulting in a lack of market momentum to chase after price increases.
Looking ahead, the progress of the China US economic and trade talks in the crude oil market is smooth, boosting global demand expectations. Combined with the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States and the instability of the geopolitical situation, it provides certain support for oil prices. But the global economic recovery is still slow, which may curb the rise in oil prices. As of June 12th, the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $68.04 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.06 per barrel.
In terms of self supply, mainstream domestic producers have restarted their facilities, and Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million ton annual production facility has been put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in supply and an industry operating rate of around 83%. The peak of PTA plant maintenance has passed, and new production capacity is being tested and put into operation. It is expected that PTA supply will continue to increase within the month.
Meanwhile, the performance of downstream polyester end is not ideal, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The performance of domestic and foreign trade orders at the terminal is scarce, with a small number of orders being mainly sampled in autumn and winter, but there is still uncertainty for subsequent orders. Next week, there is an expectation of an increase in device storage load, and some maintenance devices are planned to restart. The weaving operation rate is still at a low level, and there may be a downward risk in the weaving industry at the end of the month.
Business analysts believe that the macro outlook is relatively warm, with crude oil rebounding significantly in the short term. However, the supply of raw material PX has returned, PTA new facilities have been put into operation, and there are plans to restart early-stage maintenance facilities. The seasonal off-season for terminals is approaching, with weak demand performance and expectations of weakened supply and demand. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market was consolidating and operating in early June, with some brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of June 11th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7378.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.20% compared to the price level at the beginning of June.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In early June, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe became tense, and the risk of crude oil supply increased. At the same time, the increase in seasonal demand has boosted the market, resulting in strong price performance. The decoupling of domestic propane trade is gradually being lifted, supply is relaxed, and cost support for PDH manufacturing enterprises is weakening. There is a certain degree of loose supply in the propylene sector, coupled with average digestion speed, resulting in weak and volatile prices. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials have been fluctuating recently, with mixed ups and downs, and overall support for PP costs is still acceptable.
Supply side:
In early June, the load of domestic PP enterprises increased narrowly, and the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the current industry’s overall load level has fluctuated upwards to over 78% compared to around 77% at the end of May, with an average weekly total output of nearly 760000 tons. There are maintenance plans for enterprises such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining in the interval. On the other hand, the new production capacity of 1.4 million tons in this quarter is approaching, and the expansion of Yulong Petrochemical and other companies is basically smoothing out the maintenance benefits. The expectation of loose supply in the future is obvious. The total domestic inventory has leveled off at a high level to around 820000 tons. Overall, there is still some suppression on the spot price of PP by the supply side.
In terms of demand:
In early June, the demand side of PP continued to be weak, and on-site trading gradually entered the traditional off-season. Merchants have hardly seen any advance stocking operations, and the market maintains a weak demand situation, with a focus on on-demand use. The consumption level of terminal enterprises in the field of plastic weaving is already at the off-season level. With the passing of the small peak period of materials used in construction, agriculture and other fields in the early stage, the release speed of PP demand has further slowed down. The news of the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the United States in the early stage stimulated market sentiment, and consumption briefly increased. At present, its impact has been basically digested, with downstream PP enterprises in China experiencing sluggish production, new orders on site, and a tendency towards scattered small orders or contract deliveries, resulting in a return to flat supply liquidity. Overall, the demand side of PP performed poorly in early June.
Future forecast
The domestic PP market price consolidation in June was weak. Fundamentally speaking, the prices of various upstream raw materials have fluctuated, and the overall support for PP is still acceptable. The industry has abundant supply, inventory levels have leveled off, and consumption has entered the off-season level. The current macroeconomic policies have exhausted their positive effects, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply and demand. It is expected that the PP market will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the new production situation in the industry.

Last week (June 2-8, 2025), there was no significant fluctuation in the market situation of the upstream raw material for viscose staple fiber, the main material dissolving slurry. The cost side support was still acceptable, and downstream enterprises held onto the demand for essential purchases. At the beginning of the week, there was a strong atmosphere of observation and wait-and-see in the market, and the delivery speed was average. The viscose staple fiber market remained stable, with prices fluctuating slightly.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 8th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13360 yuan/ton, which was the same as the same period last week.
In terms of cost: This week (June 2-8, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolution slurry, a slight rebound in the market price of auxiliary material liquid alkali, a continuous decline in the market price of sulfuric acid, a narrow decline in the market price of raw materials, and a slight decrease in the average production cost of adhesive short fibers.
Supply demand: The operating rate of adhesive short fiber manufacturers’ equipment remained stable within the week, and the industry supply remained stable. The downstream cotton yarn market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with prices being mainly deadlocked. Insufficient orders have been placed in the terminal market, and downstream yarn companies still have a certain amount of raw material inventory. Coupled with high finished product inventory, a small number of orders have been signed on demand, and there has been no improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market may operate weakly and steadily, the auxiliary material liquid alkali market may have an upward trend, and the sulfuric acid market or the overall market remains stable. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will be inconsistent next week, and the cost support will be average.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have high inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be poor in the short term; Downstream yarn factories mainly consume raw material inventory and have a weak willingness to replenish raw materials. They may maintain rigid procurement, making it difficult for the demand side to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side of the adhesive short fiber market will perform poorly next week.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may experience weak consolidation, and downstream yarn market procurement enthusiasm is difficult to improve. The expected trading atmosphere in the market is flat, and it is expected that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements next week. The price is expected to be around 13000-13400 yuan/ton for acceptance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12333 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12400/ton, with a price increase of 0.54%.
Most domestic activated carbon manufacturers have stable quotes this week, with some rising. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 8800-13000 yuan/ton, and the supply is still in short supply. Industry insiders are mostly optimistic about the future market.
Internationally, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells worldwide, will face multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand will experience a reduction in coconut production due to drought and pest infestations, while some production areas in Indonesia will be affected by abnormal rainfall at the end of the rainy season, resulting in a decrease in coconut shell collection efficiency. In the short term, the import price of coconut shell charcoal will continue to operate at a high level.
Prediction: Supported by favorable raw material conditions, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and strengthen in the short term.