Ethylene glycol prices fall in November

The price of ethylene glycol fell in November. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% from the average price of 4630 yuan/ton on November 1st.

On November 26, 2024, the spot operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was 4600-4630 yuan/ton. The basis of the ethylene glycol spot contract at the port remained stable during the day, with a slight increase. In the morning session, the basis price of the spot contract for this week was+46 to+49, in the afternoon session it was+48 to+50, and in December, the basis price was+55 to+57. After the futures market rose in the afternoon, a small number of customers shipped at high prices, and there were not many buyers, resulting in light trading volume.

On November 26th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4220-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On November 25, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $536/ton, a decrease of $4/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $546/ton.

The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, and the demand is weak

On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol has rebounded, with a slight increase in operating rate and a slight increase in production. Specific manifestations: The load of synthesis gas to ethylene glycol is gradually recovering, and due to the weakening demand for ethylene oxide, some non coal production units have switched from producing ethylene oxide to producing ethylene glycol.

Demand side: The downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. The loading and weaving loads are weakening. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations in the near future, with expectations of a weakened polyester load in December.

Expected rebound in ethylene glycol inventory

The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol at the port is still relatively low, but there is an expectation of an increase in recent arrivals. There is a strong expectation that ethylene glycol will gradually enter the trend of accumulating inventory in December.

Future expectations

The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are weakening, and the future price variables of ethylene glycol mainly depend on overseas supply and cost support. It is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term.

Last week (November 18-24, 2024), the price of upstream raw material caprolactam slightly increased, with a slight increase in cost support. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and multiple parties followed up on demand. The trading atmosphere in the market was poor, and inventory levels were at a high level. The market lacked positive news support, and the industry had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The nylon filament market price remained stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (November 18-24, 2024), the market price of nylon filament continued to remain weak and stable. As of November 24, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17240 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14650 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 18150 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Raw material prices have slightly increased but remain low

Last week (November 18-24, 2024), there was high inventory pressure on the nylon filament raw material caprolactam, and the supply side was still under pressure. Spot prices slightly increased, but prices remained low. The market price of nylon PA6 chips has fallen below the low level in recent years. Although the trend has rebounded after a decline, the market supply is still abundant, and the growth rate of downstream demand is slow. The market for nylon PA6 chips lacks upward momentum, and prices are operating at a low level. The industry chain is mostly pessimistic. As of November 24th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society is 10826 yuan/ton, which is at a low level.

Supply demand

The operating rate of nylon filament market equipment is relatively high, currently operating at around 8.4%. The inventory of various manufacturers continues to accumulate, and the overall supply performance on site is loose, with average supply side support; There is still no significant improvement in demand in the terminal market, and downstream yarn factories have a certain degree of risk aversion. They hold onto rigid demand orders from multiple sources, with only a few DTY models showing slightly better demand. It is difficult to find positive support from the demand side in the short term.

Future forecast

The spot market for raw material caprolactam may be slightly stronger, with a slight increase. The nylon PA6 chip market has bottomed out and rebounded, but the market is still mainly weak, with slightly improved cost support. The supply in the market is at a high level, and downstream market demand is difficult to improve. Negative factors still exist in the market. With the exchange of news in the market, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate, and prices may rebound slightly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (11.18-11.22), with an average market price of 239860 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 242280 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.01%.

The recent rebound trend of tin prices within the range. Despite the continued shortage of upstream mineral supply in Myanmar, domestic smelting expectations have increased and there has been no reduction in raw material production.

The tin consumer side is highly sensitive to prices, and last week the tin price was adjusted back for replenishment on the consumer side. In the case of insufficient supply from Indonesia, it is expected that the domestic transfer to destocking will likely continue, but the smelting end will not reduce production, so the destocking will not be too significant. At the end of the year, China entered the off-season for consumption, and imported tin ingots continued to flow in. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate in the future.

Overall analysis shows that insufficient upstream supply provides support for tin prices, but an increase in import volume has a restraining effect on the rise of tin prices. In the short term, the upward trend lacks momentum and is expected to fluctuate and consolidate within the range.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 21st, the average quotation price of high-quality DMF enterprises in China was 4160 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF market has slightly declined, with prices dropping by 0.48% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market focus of DMF is weak, and operators have a cautious purchasing mentality. The mainstream market price is around 4100 yuan/ton, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders at low inventory levels.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF has been running weakly with a narrow range, and the price has fallen sharply compared to the same period last week. The mainstream price remains around 4100 yuan/ton, and the overall market trend is weak. The mainstream price range is around 4100-4200 yuan/ton, and inventory is running at a high level. The supply side is sufficient, and downstream procurement is active. Currently, DMF cost support is insufficient, and inventory is running at a high level.

In terms of cost, the upstream methanol market has been operating steadily with small fluctuations this week, and some units have announced maintenance plans. Currently, the trading atmosphere on site has improved. In the Kanto region, the methanol market is operating steadily, and inventory remains low. There is currently no pressure on inventory, and enterprises in Shanxi region are maintaining the previous shipment rate, with prices showing an upward trend.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term, with little upward momentum. The mainstream price is around 4100-4200 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 20th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6740 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% lower than the reference average price of 6750 yuan/ton on November 14th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 20th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 7000 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average of 7000 yuan/ton on November 14th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have slightly declined. As of November 20th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6750-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7150 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market is weak and declining. Downstream price cutting procurement, cautious in purchasing goods. At present, the market transaction atmosphere is quiet, and new orders are limited in volume. It is expected that the domestic price of yellow phosphorus will remain weak in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the phosphate ore market has remained stable, maintaining a high level of temporary stability. Downstream on-demand procurement ensures stable shipment of phosphate ore. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, with the main focus on issuing preliminary orders. Downstream on-demand procurement, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. There is currently no significant fluctuation in short-term market supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been weak recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. Downstream demand is dominant, with few new orders in the market and average trading. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will observe raw material prices and focus on narrow range consolidation and operation.