Author Archives: lubon

Supply and demand are both weak, and the butadiene market is declining

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market first fell and then rose during this cycle, with an overall downward trend. From November 3 to November 10, 2025, the price of butadiene decreased from 7133.33 yuan/ton to 6866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.74%. The overall performance of the domestic butadiene market in this cycle is still weak. With the continuous decline in prices, it has attracted some downstream buyers to replenish inventory at low prices, driving the trading atmosphere in the spot market to improve. The spot market prices have slightly rebounded. However, due to the weak demand from downstream terminals and the bearish supply performance, the overall performance of the butadiene market is still weak under the dual negative impact.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 7th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $59.75 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January contract is $63.63 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, the crude oil price market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the cycle, China and the United States held trade negotiations, and market risk appetite, coupled with the tense situation in South America, once supported the rise of crude oil prices; However, in the later stage of OPEC+’s new round of production increase, the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply, and the regional situation has eased. In addition, the weakening of US demand and US tariff issues have dragged down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a decline in international oil prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 6900 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market situation of butadiene rubber in the northwest region is consolidating at a low level. The futures price of Shunding rubber fluctuated weakly, and the merchant’s offer was slightly adjusted. As of November 10th, the mainstream prices for butadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande are 10300-10600 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: With the restart of some domestic facilities in October, the overall supply side is relatively loose, and the spot market prices are generally weak, attracting some downstream actively to enter the market and replenish inventory, but the overall demand is still biased towards rigid demand. The overall market expectation is still weak. With the intention of purchasing for essential needs, the spot market is operating weakly. The market lacks favorable factors to boost it, and the weak demand side is expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in the butadiene market in the short term, with a focus on downstream procurement demand.

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The main impact is on the cost side, and this week the price of polyester bottle chips first decreased and then increased (11.3-7)

According to the latest market information, the polyester bottle chip market has shown an overall trend of first suppressing and then rising this week. According to data from Shengyi Society, on November 7th, the average selling price of PET was 5780 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of the week, the price of polyester bottle chips fell under pressure, mainly due to the game between low PTA processing fees and abundant spot goods, coupled with the recovery of supply side operating rates, while downstream is in the off-season with light demand. Starting from Thursday, stimulated by rumors of PX plant maintenance, the raw material side has strengthened, driving the rebound of bottle chip prices. As of November 7th, the East China market closed in the range of 5700-5800 yuan/ton, with a weekly average price of 5744 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.23% compared to the previous month.
Cost driven factors led to the weakening of crude oil prices at the beginning of the week, dragging down the price of polyester bottle chips. Later, geopolitical risks drove oil prices to rebound, and cost support rebounded, driving up the price of bottle chips. The most direct trigger for Thursday’s rebound was rumors of PX plant maintenance, which increased market expectations of a tightening in raw material supply, thereby driving up bottle chip prices from the cost side.
Despite rising costs, the market supply is relatively loose in maintaining loose supply. This week, the utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle production capacity remained at 72.59%. Although some facilities in southern China are undergoing maintenance, there have also been facility restarts in eastern China, resulting in overall capacity hedging and minimal changes in supply.
The demand is currently in the seasonal off-season, and downstream demand is the main factor suppressing prices. The industry is in a seasonal off-season, and downstream factories mainly rely on rigid demand to replenish inventory, lacking enthusiasm for large-scale stocking, which restricts the upward space of bottle chip prices. The export data in September also provided evidence for the weak demand side, with the export volume of polyester bottle flakes reaching 467700 tons, a decrease of 10.18% compared to the previous month.
Overall, Business Society believes that the polyester bottle chip market will continue to fluctuate in the short term and may operate steadily with a moderate to warm trend. Main operating range: It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 5700-5900 yuan/ton in the short term.

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This week, the epoxy chloropropane market saw a decline in trading (11.3-11.6)

Due to the lack of positive news support in the market, the trading focus of epichlorohydrin market has declined this week. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 6th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 11400 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.2% compared to the beginning of this month.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The price of raw material propylene has fallen this week. Insufficient cost support and weak downward trend of epichlorohydrin. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 5970.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.44% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: downstream on-demand procurement is the main focus, cautious observation, and traders are influenced by the mentality of buying up and not buying down, resulting in a cold trading atmosphere in the market and cautious new order transactions. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain weak and stable in the later stage.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the cost side support for epichlorohydrin is insufficient, coupled with the continued downturn downstream, and traders are influenced by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, resulting in a decline in the market price of epichlorohydrin. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will mainly decline weakly in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

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Summary of the trend of pure benzene in October (October 1-31, 2025)

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of pure benzene in Shandong Province has fallen this month. On October 1st, the price was 5848.67 yuan/ton; On October 31st, the price was 5172 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.57% from the beginning of the month.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: The price fluctuations in the domestic pure benzene market are limited today. The spot market prices in East China are mainly stable, with a decrease in short positions at the end of the month and a relatively stable market. Recently, Shandong’s shipment situation has been good, boosting confidence in the market and causing a slight increase in prices for local refining enterprises. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have maintained a stable price of 5450 yuan/ton for pure benzene, which will be implemented on October 21st. It is expected that the pure benzene market will remain stable and volatile in the short term, with actual transactions being subject to negotiation.
This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price has been lowered by 300 yuan/ton to 5450 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On October 30th, international crude oil futures remained stable. The settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $60.57 per barrel, an increase of $0.09. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December was $65.00 per barrel, an increase of $0.05.
Foreign pure benzene: On October 30th, FOB Korea fell 4 to 654 US dollars/ton, and CFR China fell 3 to 674 US dollars/ton. FOB Rotterdam stable at $680/ton, FOB US Gulf stable at $243/gallon.
Overall forecast: The pure benzene market is expected to remain stable and volatile in the short term, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

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Magnesium prices remain stable with a slight decrease, indicating a clear trend of stabilizing prices (10.27-10.31)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (10.27-10.31), with an average market price of 16375 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16325 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.31%.
The magnesium market shows a trend of first decreasing and then stabilizing, with a bottoming out and rebounding trend: In the early stage, the overall focus of magnesium prices continued to shift downwards. However, as the willingness of ordinary magnesium product production factories in Fugu area to further reduce prices gradually decreased, the market tended to operate stably in the later stage.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the domestic economic situation has shown a stable and positive trend recently, with overall domestic demand remaining stable and rising, and market consumption vitality continuing to be released. However, due to fluctuations in the international market and some uncertain factors, export trading companies have adopted a cautious and wait-and-see attitude this week, with significantly reduced procurement plans for raw materials and commodities, waiting for further market clarity.
In terms of demand, this week, the supply of raw magnesium has remained stable compared to the previous period. At present, the inventory of magnesium smelting enterprises is still at a relatively low level, and the willingness of enterprises to raise prices is very strong. Most of them choose not to carry out shipment operations temporarily. However, as the end of the month approaches, some companies have experienced a small shipment due to cash pressure.
Raw material end
The price of coal shows a certain downward trend, while the price of blue charcoal remains generally stable, and the price of ferrosilicon has slightly decreased, resulting in a corresponding reduction in overall costs.
comprehensive analysis
This week, the market presents a fierce game between supply and demand, with strong willingness from upstream to raise prices, while downstream expectations for prices are relatively low. Due to the tight short-term cash flow of magnesium smelting enterprises, market prices have experienced a certain degree of decline. However, given the current situation of cost inversion, further price reduction faces significant difficulties.

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