According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 11th, the price of lead 1 # was 16795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% from the lead price of 16890 yuan/ton on April 7th.
This week’s market analysis
This week, lead prices were affected by macro factors and operated weakly.
Starting from 12:00 on April 10th, China will impose tariffs on all imported goods originating from the United States. The adjustment of tariff rates between China and the United States this time far exceeded market expectations, and the impact of macro factors continues to ferment and expand. Market risk aversion has significantly increased, and the non-ferrous metal sector as a whole has shown a general downward trend. In terms of the lead industry chain, the impact of this tariff increase is relatively significant. On the one hand, the United States is the main source of lead concentrate imports for China, and tariff adjustments will to some extent push up the cost of lead smelting; On the other hand, the export of lead-acid batteries for automobiles has also been affected, and tariff changes may have adverse effects on the export business of related battery products.
supply end
The profitability of the domestic primary lead smelting industry has significantly improved, and smelters have successfully overcome losses and achieved profitability, with profit margins gradually expanding. In this context, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the power to release production capacity is abundant. It is expected that the production of primary lead will maintain a steady growth trend. In the field of recycled lead, due to the continuous rise in the market price of lead waste and the tightening supply of raw materials, recycled lead production enterprises are facing a sudden increase in cost pressure, or production cuts may occur due to difficulty in bearing the heavy cost burden.
demand side
The current domestic policy effectiveness continues to be released and forms long-term support. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of the terminal consumer market for electric bicycles (electric scooters) and the dynamic changes in the production and sales scale of the automotive industry. The marginal driving effect of these two fields on the demand for lead materials may become a key driving force to support the stabilization and improvement of the lead market.
comprehensive analysis
The supply and demand pattern of the lead industry itself is tightening in the short term, and lead prices may show a weak oscillation pattern of “macro downward traction and fundamental bottom support”. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of subsequent smelter maintenance and the effectiveness of policy implementation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (4.7-4.11), with an average market price of 277430 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 253630 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of 8.58%.
Fundamentally, in terms of supply at the mining end, the tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar were affected by the earthquake on March 28th, and the originally planned resumption of production was postponed to the third quarter; The Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo adopts a phased resumption strategy.
At the macro policy level, the Shanghai tin market experienced its largest weekly decline of the year due to the impact of the US announcement of tariffs on China on April 8th, and the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price also fell in sync. On April 11th, the United States announced tariff exemptions for electronic products such as smartphones and computers, which improved market sentiment.
The dynamics of the spot market show that at the beginning of the week, panic triggered a wave of selling in the market, resulting in an expansion of the spot discount. However, as prices hit bottom, downstream companies gradually released their demand to replenish inventory at low prices, and the spot premium trend gradually recovered to near the normal level. The market transaction activity in major trading regions such as Guangdong and Shanghai significantly increased.
In terms of inventory, there is a trend of accumulated inventory in China, with the total social inventory increasing to 12000 tons and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising to 10377 tons. This phenomenon is mainly attributed to the inhibitory effect of high tin prices on demand, as well as the continuous inflow of imported tin ingots. In contrast, overseas inventory continues to decrease, and LME inventory has dropped to 3140 tons.
comprehensive analysis
Although macro level risk factors have not completely dissipated in the short term, the long-term support effect formed by the rigid supply gap in the mining sector and the growth of demand in emerging industries will still provide key support for the trend of tin prices.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7676 yuan/ton on April 17 and 7566 yuan/ton on April 25, a decrease of 1.43% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9200 yuan/ton on April 17th and 9100 yuan/ton on April 25th, a decrease of 1.09% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8170 yuan/ton on April 17th and 8107 yuan/ton on April 25th, a decrease of 0.76% during this period.
Recently, the price of polyethylene has continued to decline weakly, and the market trend is weak. The cost support is unstable, and business operators lack confidence in the future market. The pressure on the supply side is still ongoing, and there are plans to increase production capacity in the second quarter; Downstream demand follow-up is insufficient, overall performance is average, support is limited, merchants mainly offer discounts for shipments, and quotations are weak. The supply pressure is still there, and the peak season for agricultural film has passed. It is expected that polyethylene will continue to operate weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market has continued to weaken since mid April. On April 14th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7533 yuan/ton. On April 23rd, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7216 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.2%.
Negative sentiment suppresses weak decline in adipic acid market
After mid April, pure benzene, the raw material for adipic acid, experienced weak fluctuations, while the market for cyclohexanone raw material declined. The demand in the terminal industry was poor, and manufacturers in the adipic acid market had loose supply, resulting in a continuous decline in shipping prices and a decline in market transactions, with average sales. As of April 23rd, the average market price of adipic acid has fallen to 7100-7300 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of about 200-300 yuan/ton.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that by the end of April, terminal demand was sluggish and supply pressure remained, and the domestic adipic acid market may continue to decline.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has been fluctuating recently, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing mixed ups and downs. As of April 22nd, the benchmark price of Business Society PC hybrid is around 15500 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.69% compared to the beginning of the month.
cause analysis
On the supply side: As we enter late April, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remains mainly stable. As of April 22nd, the industry average operating level has slightly increased to 83% compared to the middle of the month. During this period, the weekly average production remained above 60000 tons, still at a super high level, and the on-site supply was very abundant. Manufacturers and midstream inventory positions are relatively high, and shipping pressure continues to be high. The market supply side has weak support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: as can be seen from the figure above, BPA has been adjusted and operated after the price rise recently. Affected by the temporary low point of the industry in the early stage, some regions are experiencing tight supply, supporting the upward trend of spot prices. At the same time, acetone and phenol remain firm after heating up, forming a support for spot goods. However, the price of upstream crude oil in the middle and far ends of the month has been hit by the US tariffs, which has undermined the confidence of industry players in the future. In addition, there has been a recent increase in the workload of some enterprises, which has weakened the positive impact on supply. The dual downstream consumption demand is firmly supported, and overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.
In terms of demand: Recently, PC consumption has continued to follow the pattern of rigid demand, and new orders in the market have basically remained at the same level as the same period in previous years. Downstream factories are returning to normal load and stocking up as scheduled. Be cautious in purchasing logic. However, due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site sources of goods, the supply-demand imbalance tends towards destocking. Under the influence of international news such as equivalent tariffs, merchants tend to be cautious and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. As the pre holiday stock gradually runs out in the future, the circulation speed of on-site goods is bound to slow down. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In late April, the domestic PC market experienced volatile consolidation. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently holding at a high level, with support for PC costs flattening. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is generally stable, and the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. The current downstream demand follows the logic of essential demand, and the impact of US tariff policies and crude oil fluctuations has left industry players with unchanged concerns about the future. Market trading has been sluggish as pre holiday stocking gradually comes to an end. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and there is great pressure for sellers to sell their products. Therefore, it is expected that the PC market will continue to be light and stable in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor relevant news on the foreign trade environment.