In February, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber decreased slightly. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the average spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber was 7402 yuan/ton on February 28, down 3.27% from the price of 7652 at the beginning of the month, down 4.72% year on year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 7212 (settlement price 7166), down 3.45% from the beginning of the month.

In February, the international crude oil price showed a narrow fluctuation trend, with a fall of 2.77% in the whole month. On February 28, the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures closed at US $76.83/barrel. The warm winter in the United States and Europe is the main reason for the decline of oil prices this month. In addition, with the strengthening of the US dollar, the decline of US stocks and the comments of hawkish Fed officials, the price of crude oil continued to be under pressure. This month, Russia announced that the production reduction decision was only for March, and the later production decision would depend on the situation. It is expected that Russia’s crude oil production will recover.

In February, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. As of February 28, the average market price in East China was 5597 yuan/ton, down 2.89% from the beginning of the month and 1.05% year on year. This month, PTA plant maintenance devices were restarted more frequently, and the supply side increased, and the industry started at more than 72%. At the beginning of the month, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal orders, the new PTA devices were put into production, and the price fell slightly. After that, PTA increased its maintenance due to low processing difference, and the downstream polyester was seasonally negative, the supply and demand pattern improved, and the price stopped falling and rebounded.

In February, the price of ethylene glycol fell first and then rose. According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic oil-based ethylene glycol on February 28 was 4308.33 yuan/ton, down 2.27% from the average market price of 4408.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In the second half of this month, the prices of upstream raw materials ethylene and naphtha were good, and the overall performance of coal prices was good. At present, the cost-side support was strong. However, the high inventory in the main port in the short term suppressed the amount of ethylene glycol.

In February, most of the cotton mills and weaving mills still digested the stock orders before the Spring Festival, and the domestic sales orders only slightly increased. Foreign trade was affected by high inventory, and the new orders were still not released smoothly. The orders of textile enterprises did not show the explosive growth expected by the market, and the new orders were issued limited, which restricted the enthusiasm of some manufacturers in production. The overall situation is still weak compared with the same period last year. As of February 27, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was more than 67%.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the cost of staple fiber raw materials is still supported, and the downstream yarn mills and weaving mills are actively resuming work. With the arrival of the traditional consumption season, the demand for staple fiber may improve, and the market is expected to warm up, and the future market is cautiously optimistic. It is expected that the staple fiber price will oscillate with the cost in March. In the future, we will focus on the price trend of raw materials and the recovery of terminal orders.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic local hydrotreated naphtha mainstream was 8221.50 yuan/ton as of February 28, up 2.69% from 8006.50 yuan/ton on February 20, and the local hydrotreated naphtha market continued to rise.

According to the latest monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic straight-run naphtha mainstream was 8136.50 yuan/ton as of February 28, up 3.47% from 7864.00 yuan/ton on February 20, and the local straight-run naphtha market continued to rise.

The naphtha commodity index on February 28 was 101.47, up 0.31 points from yesterday, down 16.58% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and up 140.22% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: The price of refined naphtha continued to rise in late February. At present, the mainstream price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is about 8200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight-run naphtha is about 8100 yuan/ton. The local refining and reforming company just needs replenishment to support the market, mainly needs procurement, and the refinery is active in shipment. As of the week of February 22, Singapore’s fuel inventory increased by 1.915 million barrels to a four-month high of 22.641 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventory decreased by 2.04 million barrels to an 8-week low of 15.578 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventory increased by 526000 barrels to a three-week high of 8211000 barrels.

Upstream: The trend of international crude oil prices in late February was volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remained high, and the economic data was strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January made the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

Downstream: the price of toluene rose in late February. The price of toluene was 7200 yuan/ton on February 20 and 7250 yuan/ton on February 28, up 1.25%. The price of mixed xylene rose in late February, with the price of 7320 yuan/ton on February 20 and 7370 yuan/ton on February 28, up 1.78%. In late February, the price trend of paraxylene was temporarily stable, and the domestic ex-factory price of paraxylene was 8500 yuan/ton by the end of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of the Business Society, the international crude oil market has been fluctuating downward in the near future, the naphtha cost support is limited, the local refining naphtha terminal reorganization just needs replenishment to boost the naphtha market, the refinery is actively pushing up, and the middlemen are mostly wait-and-see, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha will be sorted out in the near future.

In February 2023, the negative and positive factors played a game, and the market wait-and-see sentiment accumulated, and the viscose staple fiber market was in a stalemate. Under the pressure of weak downstream demand, rising raw material costs and increased market supply, viscose staple fiber enterprises operate cautiously. As of February 27, 2023, the ex-factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13360 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, or 1.06% per month.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

Since the end of the festival, some domestic dissolved pulp has been converted to pulp, and some imported pulp enterprises have planned to save or reduce production recently. The market supply has been reduced, and the price of raw material dissolved pulp is on the rise. As of February 24, the latest offer of some imported broad-leaved dissolved pulp was $920/ton, up $40/ton compared with that before the festival, and the latest offer of imported coniferous pulp was $970/ton, up $50/ton compared with that before the festival.

Since the middle of February, the start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry has increased. Since the return from the holiday, the start-up load has increased rapidly and the market supply has been increasing. In addition, the market situation of terminal grey fabric and downstream yarn continued to be weak, and there were few new orders in the market. Although the viscose staple fiber enterprises continued to implement the preliminary orders, with the order delivery basically ended, the stock of viscose staple fiber enterprises in some regions showed an increase.

Downstream cotton yarn market

In February 2023, rayon yarn operated weakly and steadily, and the price was basically the same as that of the previous month. As of February 27, 2023, the average ex-factory price of rayon yarn (30S, ring spinning, first class) was 17700 yuan/ton.

Price trend of rayon yarn

In terms of demand, most of the cotton yarn enterprises are still implementing the preliminary orders. There is no obvious pressure on the inventory of the cotton mill, the operation is temporarily firm, and the price center is basically stable. The downstream terminal grey fabric enterprises have a poor delivery situation, and the price is beginning to loosen. The weak demand is led from the bottom to the top. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the upstream and downstream of the market, the market focus is generally stable, and the market demand is recovering in the quiet.

Aftermarket forecast

In the later stage, the supply of viscose staple fiber itself may increase, the terminal demand will recover slowly, and the weakness of the demand side will be transmitted from the bottom to the top. The whole industrial chain of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn will be in a slump, and the market will hardly increase significantly in the short term, and the market wait-and-see mood will accumulate. In this case, the analysts of the Business Agency expect that the price of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn will rise relatively weakly in the short term, and the market may run in a stalemate in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate mainstream was 9075.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the average ex-factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate mainstream was 9120.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.50%, and the current price rose 8.14% year on year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fluctuated and consolidated in February. It can be seen from the above figure that the market of potassium carbonate has fallen for four consecutive months in recent years, and the market has not fluctuated much this month. There is little fluctuation in the market of raw materials, the downstream procurement remains just in demand, the market transaction is relatively cold, and the price of potassium carbonate is basically stable. According to the statistics of the Business News Agency, the recent mainstream ex-factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), which varies according to different procurement conditions.

In February, the quotation of domestic potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers was temporarily stable: the price of 62% white potassium at the port was mostly 3500~3550 yuan/ton. The price of potassium chloride in the port also declined slightly. The price of 62% white potassium in the port rose to 3750 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week; The self-raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3875 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from last week.

At present, the price of domestic potash fertilizer market is weak and consolidated, and the cost support is general. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 23, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was 8783 yuan/ton for reference. Compared with February 1, 2023 (the reference price of butanone was 8533 yuan/ton), the price increased by 250 yuan/ton, or 2.93%.

From February to now (2.1-2.22), the domestic butanone market has shown an overall upward trend. In the first ten days of February, the cost support for butanone from the high level of the after-carbon 4 market of raw ether continued to strengthen, and the focus of the butanone market moved steadily upward. On February 15, the market price of butanone rose to a high level. The market price of butanone was around 8800-9100 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5.08% in the first ten days of February.

In late February, the downstream demand side support of butanone was limited, and the weak demand performance slowed the rise of butanone. The market price of butanone was consolidated after rising, and the prices of the field operators were mostly stable. Near the end of the month, the demand boost of butanone market was still general, and the new orders were handled cautiously. Under the demand constraints, the market price of butanone was down in a narrow range, with a price reduction of around 200-300 yuan/ton. As of February 23, the market price of domestic butanone was around 8450-9000 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of butanone

At present, the follow-up of downstream demand for butanone is still slow, and the increment of new orders is weak. The downstream market mainly digestes the raw materials in the early stage, and the overall transaction is average. The butanone statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly operated in a narrow range of fluctuations, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.